我国水-能源-粮食耦合关系及影响因素

为缓解我国水、能源和粮食资源紧张问题，促进资源可持续利用，构建水-能源-粮食系统，利用耦合协调度模型对我国的30个省（自治区、直辖市）进行测算,并利用空间杜宾模型分析主要影响因素。结果表明：2003—2017年，我国能源、粮食评价[JP]指数高于水资源评价指数，系统综合评价指数逐年递增；大部分省份耦合协调度处于初级协调水平且呈现逐年上升的态势，个别省份耦合协调度濒临失调；耦合协调度空间自相关性较强，虽有明显波动，但是呈现逐年加强的态势；影响耦合协调度的主要因素有从业人口数、固定资产投资额、人均生产总值、人口总数、[JP]文盲人口占比、工业污染排放、城镇化。     

New sampling strategies to reduce the effect of autocorrelation on the synthetic T2 chart to monitor bivariate process

In this paper, synthetic T² chart is developed to monitor bivariate process with correlated variables and autocorrelated observations. The proposed chart is a combination of the Hotelling's T² chart and the conforming run length chart. The operation and design of the chart are described when observations are autocorrelated and cross correlated. The first‐order vector autoregressive process VAR (1) is used to model the bivariate data from an autocorrelated process of interest. Using an average run length as performance measure criterion in the VAR (1) model, it is observed that autocorrelation seriously impact the performance of the synthetic T² chart. To reduce the effect of autocorrelation on the performance of the synthetic T² chart, the skip and mixed sampling strategies are implemented to form rational subgroups in the construction of synthetic T² chart. The average run length performance of the synthetic T² chart implementing these strategies is compared with that of the standard strategy of formation of rational subgroups. It is observed that implementing skip and mixed sampling strategies within rational subgroup improves the performance of the synthetic T² chart.     

Turncoat Polypeptides: We Adapt to Our Environment

A common interpretation of Anfinsen's hypothesis states that one amino acid sequence should fold into a single, native, ordered state, or a highly similar set thereof, coinciding with the global minimum in the folding-energy landscape, which, in turn, is responsible for the function of the protein. However, this classical view is challenged by many proteins and peptide sequences, which can adopt exchangeable, significantly dissimilar conformations that even fulfill different biological roles. The similarities and differences of concepts related to these proteins, mainly chameleon sequences, metamorphic proteins, and switch peptides, which are all denoted herein “turncoat” polypeptides, are reviewed. As well as adding a twist to the conventional view of protein folding, the lack of structural definition adds clear versatility to the activity of proteins and can be used as a tool for protein design and further application in biotechnology and biomedicine.     

Filling the gap between Continuous and Discrete Time Dynamics of Autoregressive Processes

Discretization of continuous time autoregressive (AR) processes driven by a Brownian motion and embedding of discrete time AR sequences driven by a Gaussian white noise are classical issues. The article aims at establishing and using such discretization and embedding formulae between extended AR continuous time processes and discrete time sequences. The continuous-time processes are driven by either Brownian or jump processes, and may have random coefficients depending on time; Lévy-driven processes are also considered. The innovation of the discrete time processes may be of many types – including Gaussian. In one way, observing the continuous time AR process at discrete times leads the AR dynamics of the discretized process to be characterized. The other way round, AR sequences can be embedded, in the almost sure sense, into continuous time AR processes with the same dynamics. Illustration is provided through many examples and simulation.     

基于摄影测量的飞机阻力伞运动参数测量技术

针对某型阻力伞性能鉴定试飞科目要求，需要精确测量阻力伞在稳定工作时的垂直、水平摆角，从而为该产品的技术鉴定提供依据。本文根据加装在飞机机背中段的高速摄像机，获取阻力伞的运动影像，通过图像分析处理识别特征点的亚象素坐标，采用摄影测量的解算算法，推导出数学解算模型，实现了阻力伞运动参数的最优解算。结合真实飞行试验对测量结果进行了分析，数据结论准确。     

非规则梁桥伸缩缝处的碰撞对地震反应的影响

针对非规则梁桥在地震作用下伸缩缝处的碰撞现象,在建立考虑双边碰撞效应的简化动力分析模型的基础上,采用非线性地震反应时程分析方法,研究了纵向地震作用下非规则梁桥伸缩缝处的碰撞效应,并分析比较了双边碰撞与单边碰撞对桥梁结构位移的影响,研究结果对同类型的非规则梁桥的抗震设计具有一定的参考价值。     

阿尔泰南缘泥盆纪火山－沉积盆地形成机制探讨

经过野外观测和室内分析测试，认为阿尔泰南缘三个等间距斜列的麦兹、克朗、冲乎尔火山沉积盆地中，广泛分布着泥盆纪火山沉积建造，它们控制着阿尔泰南缘多金属矿带的展布     

Examining spatially varying relationships between land use and water quality using geographically weighted regression I: model design and evaluation

Traditional regression techniques such as ordinary least squares (OLS) can hide important local variations in the model parameters, and are not able to deal with spatial autocorrelations existing in the variables. A recently developed technique, geographically weighted regression (GWR), is used to examine the relationships between land use and water quality in eastern Massachusetts, USA. GWR models make great improvements of model performance over OLS models, which is proved by F-test and comparisons of model R² and corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AIC_c) from both GWR and OLS. GWR models also improve the reliabilities of the relationships by reducing spatial autocorrelations. The application of GWR models finds that the relationships between land use and water quality are not constant over space but show great spatial non-stationarity. GWR models are able to reveal the information previously ignored by OLS models on the local causes of water pollution, and so improve the model ability to explain local situation of water quality. The results of this study suggest that GWR technique has the potential to serve as a useful tool for environmental research and management at watershed, regional, national and even global scales.     

Sub-micrometer particulate air pollution and cardiovascular mortality in Beijing, China

Background

While the link between particulate matter and cardiovascular mortality is well established, it is not fully investigated and understood which properties of the aerosol might be responsible for the health effects, especially in polluted mega-city areas.

Objectives

Our goal was to explore the association between daily cardiovascular mortality and different particle metrics in the sub-micrometer range in Beijing, China.

Methods

We obtained daily counts of cause-specific cardiovascular deaths in the Beijing urban area for the period March 2004 to August 2005. Concurrently, continuous measurements of particle number size distributions were performed. Particle number concentrations (NC) between 0.003 μm and 0.8 μm were converted to particle mass and surface area concentrations assuming spherical particles. Semi-parametric Poisson regression models adjusting for trend, seasonality, day of the week, and meteorology were used to estimate immediate, delayed and cumulative particle effects. Additionally, effect modification by air mass origin was investigated.

Results

We observed associations between daily cardiovascular mortality and particle NC for a 2-days delay. Moreover, nearly all particle metrics showed 2-days delayed associations with ischemic heart disease mortality. The strongest association was found for particle NC in the size range 0.03-0.1 μm (7.1% increase in daily mortality with a 95%-confidence interval of 2.9%-11.5%, per an increase of 6250 particles/cm³). Results for surface and mass concentrations with a lag of two days indicated effect modification by air mass origin, whereas effects of particle NC were not modified.

Conclusions

Results show an elevated risk of cardiovascular mortality in Beijing from short-term exposure to particulate air pollution in the sub-micrometer range. Results also indicate that locally produced smaller particles and regionally transported particles may exhibit different effects in Beijing.     

基于虚拟仪器的频率测量研究

阐述了一种基于虚拟仪器的正弦信号频率测量设计方案.结合相关原理和求导原理,提出了一种新的频率测量算法,该设计方案已成功应用于某型导弹的自动测试系统.实践证明,这项技术能提高测量精度,同时也能降低费用.