Time and cost securing in complex large-scale projects

Meeting time and cost objectives in complex projects involves specific problems and risks. An attempt is made to analyse the components of total cost increase of a project caused by time delay. An outline is given as to how these considerations can be used to estimate cost increases in investors' decision situations as well as to ascertain fair contractual penalties and claims for compensation and for the evaluation of justified project acceleration costs.     

Markov analysis of qualitative dynamics1

Common sense sometimes predicts events to be likely or unlikely rather than merely possible. We extend methods of qualitative reasoning to predict the relative likelihoods of possible qualitative behaviors by viewing the dynamics of a system as a Markov chain over its transition graph. This involves adding qualitative or quantitative estimates of transition probabilities to each of the transitions and applying the standard theory of Markov chains to distinguish persistent states from transient states and to calculate recurrence times, settling times, and probabilities for ending up in each state. Much of the analysis depends solely on qualitative estimates of transition probabilities, which follow directly from theoretical considerations and which lead to qualitative predictions about entire classes of systems. Quantitative estimates for specific systems are derived empirically and lead to qualitative and quantitative conclusions, most of which are insensitive to small perturbations in the estimated transition probabilities. The algorithms are straightforward and efficient.     

Issues in nonlinear stochastic grey box identification

Grey box identification refers to the practice of identifying dynamical systems in model structures exploiting partial prior information. This contribution reviews a method for stochastic grey box identification and surveys experiences and lessons of applying it to a number of industrial processes. Issues to be addressed include advantages and costs of introducing stochastics into the model, the question of what contribution must be expected from the model designer as opposed to what can be formalized in computer algorithms, and an outlook on future plans to resolve present shortcomings.     

Remarks on the mean square tracking error

The purpose of this paper is to extend recent results of Ljung and Priouret to a more general class of regressors.     

Use of inverse gas chromatography to quantify interactions in amine cured epoxy resins

Flory–Huggins interaction parameters, λ, were determined for a series of probes in an amine cured epoxy resin matrix (433–493 K) and its precursors (324–363 K) by inverse gas chromatography (IGC). Hildebrand–Scatchard theory was combined with Flory–Huggins theory in order to estimate infinte dilution solubility parameters (δ₂) for the matrix and its precursors at 298 K. It was shown that the value of the solubility parameter for the cured resin matrix lies between those of its precursors. Compared to the majority of published work, an unusual aspect of this application of IGC is that solubility parameters have been determined when the stationery phases are (i) small molecules and (ii) a highly crosslinked polymer. Moreover, all possible attempts have been made to ensure equilibrium conditions between probe and stationary phase, and compensation for asymmetry of peak profile has been applied in determining δ₂. The solubility parameters estimated by IGC are in good agreement with those calculated by other methods.     

Sensorless control of synchronous reluctance motors using on‐line parameter identification method not affected by position estimation accuracy

This paper presents a novel on‐line parameter identification method for sensorless control of Synchronous Reluctance Motors (SynRMs). Although conventional sensorless control methods based on mathematical models usually need some complex measurements of motor parameters in advance, the proposed identification method does not require them and can be realized on‐line. The proposed method identifies motor parameters under sensorless control, so rotor position and velocity cannot be used to identify these parameters. However, the proposed method does not need rotor position and velocity, and identified parameters are not affected by these estimation errors. The sensorless control using identified motor parameters is realized, and the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by experimental results. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Electr Eng Jpn, 155(3): 62–69, 2006; Published online in Wiley InterScience ( www.interscience.wiley.com ). DOI 10.1002/eej.20258     

Modeling of a power electronic converter for EMC in the conduction emission frequency band

With the advancement of high‐frequency switching devices, electromagnetic interferences (EMI) have become problems in power electronic converter designs. It is necessary for an electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) design to prospect and consider its possible EMI levels. This paper describes how to compute effects from a power converter to an object point to reduce conduction EMI noises effectively by an appropriate design. Modeling techniques for converter elements are discussed for a model in the conduction emission frequency band by the parameter tuning method and for line constants by an analytical derivation. Then a derived model is simulated for harmonic distributions of loop currents and their magnetic fields. © 2002 Scripta Technica, Electr Eng Jpn, 139(1): 44–50, 2002: DOI 10.1002/eej.1145     

Rhizobium trifolii capsular polysaccharide: a novel biopolymer with striking physical properties

The physical properties of the capsular polysaccharide of Rhizobium Trifolii (CPS) were investigated. Viscosity measurements provided information about the hydrodynamic volume of single coils, the perturbation of solvent flow and the shear-thinning behaviour of concentrated solutions. Changes in chain geometry and the development of an intermolecular network as a function of temperature were monitored using the techniques of optical rotation and dynamic oscillation. Finally, analysis of calorimetric thermograms elucidated the type of interactions between CPS and the bacterial levan. Overall, the Rhizobium polysaccharide was found to form thermally-reversible gels at an extremely low 'minimum critical gelling concentration' (c_o∼ 0.35gl^-1). At temperatures above the gel melting point (∼ 48°C), however, the compact polymer coils entangled at comparatively high concentrations (about 60 times higher than c_o). In the presence of a highly branched levan, the thermal stability of ordered CPS structures increased as a consequence of thermodynamic incompatibility between the two polymers.     

Phase equilibria of quasi-binary systems consisting of multicomponent polymers 1 and 2. IV: Poly(ethylene oxide)/poly(propylene oxide) systems

To confirm the reliability of the theory of phase equibria of multicomponent polymer 1/multicomponent polymer 2 systems (i.e. quasi-binary systems) and the method of computer experiment based on this theory (Brit. Polym. J., 23 (1990)285; 23 (1990)299; Polym. Int., 29 (1992)219), could point curves (CPC), two-phase volume ratios ( R ) and critical solution points (CSP) have been determined experimentally for the quasi-binary mixtures of poly(ethylene oxide) (M¯_w = 647, M¯_w/M¯_n = 1.15; M¯_w and M¯_n, the weight-average and numberaverage molecular weights, respectively) and poly(propylene oxide) (M¯_w = 2028, M¯_w/M¯_n = 1.08; and M_w = 2987, M_w/M_n = 1.13). The hydroxyl end groups of both polymers were methoxylated in advance by the Cooper & Booth method (Polymer, 18 (1977)164). The thermodynamic interaction parameter between both polymers, χ₁₂, and the concentration dependence parameters for the above quasi-binary systems were determined by the method proposed in a previous paper (Brit. Polym. J., 23 (1990)299). CPC, R and CSP values calculated on the basis of the theory are in good agreement with the values determined experimentally.     

Bioprocess applications of model-based estimation techniques

The last decade has seen the development of a number of approaches for estimating those variables which are difficult to measure on-line in industrial process situations. Whilst a range of techniques is available, a common element is the use of process knowledge in the form of a system model. In the case of bioprocess systems, although a large range of models has been presented in the literature, their use in estimation schemes on an industrial scale has been limited. A number of reasons can be identified for their low level of utilisation. Of particular significance is the uncertainty which exists in quantifying system performance and the process-model mismatch which inevitably results. The level of ‘pre-defined model’ uncertainty, together with the knowledge gained during the course of the fermentation, serves to dictate estimator structure. The paper considers a range of estimation strategies and contrasts, through industrial applications, their performance characteristics and utility.