Deterministic and probabilistic ship pitch prediction using a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing,reinforcement learning and improved QRNN

The deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship motion is important for safe navigation and stable real-time operational control of ships at sea. However, the volatility and randomness of ship motion, the non-adaptive nature of single predictors and the poor coverage of quantile regression pose serious challenges to uncertainty prediction, making research in this field limited. In this paper, a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing, reinforcement learning and improved quantile regression neural network (QRNN) is proposed to explore the deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship pitch motion. To validate the performance of the proposed multi-predictor integrated prediction model, an experimental study is conducted with three sets of actual ship longitudinal motions during sea trials in the South China Sea. The experimental results indicate that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the proposed model of deterministic prediction are 0.0254°, 0.0359°, and 0.0188°, respectively. Taking series #2 as an example, the prediction interval coverage probabilities (PICPs) of the proposed model of probability predictions at 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence levels (CLs) are 0.9400, 0.9800, and 1.0000, respectively. This study signifies that the proposed model can provide trusted deterministic predictions and can effectively quantify the uncertainty of ship pitch motion, which has the potential to provide practical support for ship early warning systems.     

Process knowledge-based random forest regression for model predictive control on a nonlinear production process with multiple working conditions

In process industry, predictive control approaches have been widely used for nonlinear production processes. Practically, the predictor in a predictive controller is extremely important since it provides future states for the optimization problem of controllers. The conventional predictive controller with precise mathematical predictors approximating the state space of physical systems is difficult and time-consuming for nonlinear production processes, and it performs poorly over a wide range of working conditions and with significant disturbances. To address the challenges, the trend of applying artificial intelligence emerges. However, the industrial process-specific knowledge is ignored in most cases. In this study, a predictive controller with a control process knowledge-based random forest (RF) model is proposed. Specifically, working data are clustered at first to handle diverse working conditions. Then, a process knowledge-based forest predictor, namely MIW-RF model with a redesigned cascading RF structure, is proposed to incorporate control process knowledge into modeling. Thus, future states of controlled variables could be more accurately acquired for the optimizer. A simplified version of the predictive model is also developed with quick model training and updating. The proposed predictive methods are finally introduced into the controller design. According to the empirical results, the proposed methods deliver a better control performance against benchmarks, including more accurate anticipated controlled-variable responses, better set-point tracking and disturbance rejection capability.     

A method of constructing an inspiration library driven by user-perceived preference evaluation data for biologically inspired design

Biologically inspired design (BID) is one of the common methods for product design. To solve the problem of inaccurate acquisition of inspirational creatures due to the lack of user perception preference analysis, a data-driven intelligent service model for BID considering user perception needs is proposed based on Kansei engineering. Firstly, by extracting the perceptual features of creatures from the semantic source elements of products through mapping and encodes them, we proposed a data acquisition method based on intuitionistic fuzzy sets considering different customer preference distributions, bridging the gap caused by the asymmetry between designers and users. Secondly, the functional relationship between biometric features and user-perceived attributes is identified and predicted, and a predictive model of biodata considering user preferences is obtained by multiple linear regression analysis. Finally, based on the data clustering and reorganization theory to understand the organization and dynamics of the database, the construction of a BID library was completed, and the design resources in the library were used as analyzed knowledge for designers to plan design activities. Taking the bionic design of a UAV product as an example, a prototype of a computer-aided design service system was developed based on the theory proposed in the article, and the analyzed knowledge was used to improve the efficiency and science of the design, effectively verifying the usefulness of this study for design. To a certain extent, this study addresses the problem of cognitive limitations of designers and cognitive differences between designers and users, promotes the application of bioinspiration in product design, and improves the marketability of design solutions.     

Experimental investigation on the invert stability of operating railway tunnels with different drainage systems using 3D printing technology

In recent years, the invert anomalies of operating railway tunnels in water-rich areas occur frequently, which greatly affect the transportation capacity of the railway lines. Tunnel drainage system is a crucial factor to ensure the invert stability by regulating the external water pressure (EWP). By means of a three-dimensional (3D) printing model, this paper experimentally investigates the deformation behavior of the invert for the tunnels with the traditional drainage system (TDS) widely used in China and its optimized drainage system (ODS) with bottom drainage function. Six test groups with a total of 110 test conditions were designed to consider the design factors and environmental factors in engineering practice, including layout of the drainage system, blockage of the drainage system and groundwater level fluctuation. It was found that there are significant differences in the water discharge, EWP and invert stability for the tunnels with the two drainage systems. Even with a dense arrangement of the external blind tubes, TDS was still difficult to eliminate the excessive EWP below the invert, which is the main cause for the invert instability. Blockage of drainage system further increased the invert uplift and aggravated the track irregularity, especially when the blockage degree is more than 50%. However, ODS can prevent these invert anomalies by reasonably controlling the EWP at tunnel bottom. Even when the groundwater level reached 60 m and the blind tubes were fully blocked, the invert stability can still be maintained and the railway track experienced a settlement of only 1.8 mm. Meanwhile, the on-site monitoring under several rainstorms further showed that the average EWP of the invert was controlled within 84 kPa, while the maximum settlement of the track slab was only 0.92 mm, which also was in good agreement with the results of model test.     

Stochastic service-life modeling of chloride-induced corrosion in recycled-aggregate concrete

The development and implementation of a stochastic service-life model for chloride-induced corrosion in reinforced recycled-aggregate concrete is presented in this work. The 1D model accounts for recycled aggregates that have been initially contaminated with chlorides from previous in-service exposure. Using a probabilistic approach, the model is employed to predict the service life of normal- and recycled-aggregate reinforced concrete with and without aggregate pre-contamination. Specifically, the effect of (a) type and replacement ratio of reclaimed aggregate, (b) chloride boundary conditions, (c) initial aggregate chloride concentration, and (d) thickness of contaminated aggregate shells on time to corrosion cracking was investigated herein. Results suggest that certain levels of contamination may be permissible in the design of reclaimed-aggregate reinforced concrete structures. Furthermore, quality control standards that limit thresholds of recycled aggregate replacement ratios and aggregate purity should be based on anticipated exposure conditions and old mortar thicknesses rather than initial degrees of aggregate contamination.     

Significant spatial co-distribution pattern discovery

Given instances (spatial points) of different spatial features (categories), significant spatial co-distribution pattern discovery aims to find subsets of spatial features whose spatial distributions are statistically significantly similar to each other. Discovering significant spatial co-distribution patterns is important for many application domains such as identifying spatial associations between diseases and risk factors in spatial epidemiology. Previous methods mostly associated spatial features whose instances are frequently located together; however, this does not necessarily indicate a similarity in the spatial distributions between different features. Thus, this paper defines the significant spatial co-distribution pattern discovery problem and subsequently develops a novel method to solve it effectively. First, we propose a new measure, dissimilarity index, to quantify the difference between spatial distributions of different features under the spatial neighbor relation and then employ it in a distribution clustering method to detect candidate spatial co-distribution patterns. To further remove spurious patterns that occur accidentally, the validity of each candidate spatial co-distribution pattern is verified through a significance test under the null hypothesis that spatial distributions of different features are independent of each other. To model the null hypothesis, a distribution shift-correction method is presented by randomizing the relationships between different features and maintaining spatial structure of each feature (e.g., spatial auto-correlation). Comparisons with baseline methods using synthetic datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. A case study identifying co-morbidities in central Colorado is also presented to illustrate the real-world applicability of the proposed method.     

Fatigue in bamboo

This paper describes the results of an experimental programme to determine the fatigue behaviour of bamboo. Bamboo is subjected to cyclic loading, both in the plant itself and subsequently when the material is used in load-bearing applications in the construction industry. However, there is currently no data in the literature describing fatigue in this material. We found that sections of bamboo culm loaded parallel to the culm axis did not undergo fatigue failure: samples either failed on the first loading cycle, or not at all. By contrast, fatigue was readily apparent in samples loaded in compression across the diameter of the culm. The number of cycles to failure increased as the cyclic load range decreased in a manner similar to that found in many engineering materials: fatigue occurred at applied loads as small as 40% of the ultimate strength. Two different species of bamboo were tested and found to have different ultimate strengths but similar high-cycle fatigue strengths. Finite element analysis was used to help understand the progression of fatigue damage and the effect of stress concentration features. Some tentative design rules are proposed to define stress levels for the safe use of bamboo, taking fatigue into account.     

Dynamic reputation information propagation based malicious account detection in OSNs

Wireless Networks - People all around the world have become increasingly dependent on online social networks (OSNs), meanwhile, the number of malicious accounts in OSNs is also rapidly growing....