基于实时数据的网状城市快速路行驶时间预测方法研究

基于城市快速路实时管理和控制的思路,利用观测断面的数据,给出动态预测网状城市快速路上的交通状态和任意两点间行驶时间的方法。具体做法是,依据时序列数据、状态空间模型和自回归模型进行模型参数自拟合,并且预测出将来几个时段的交通状态,然后计算出行驶时间。最后,给出应用于城市快速路网的实例计算结果。结果表明,提出的方法可以用于预测路网上的交通状态和行驶时间,并为城市快速路的信息服务和交通诱导提供一种方法。     

建筑能耗分析用逐时降雨模型(2):月降水量随机模拟

在计算与分析广州地区33年实测月降水量序列统计参数的基础上,将月降水量序列进行对数变换,采用一阶AR(P)模型建立了月降水量随机模拟模型。通过与实测结果的比较检验了该模型的适用性。     

基于Hilbert边际谱和IPSO-SVDD的滚动轴承故障诊断

滚动轴承是旋转机械状态监控及故障诊断的重要研究内容。为了更加高效的对轴承故障位置及故障程度进行诊断,提出了一种基于Hilbert边际谱和改进粒子群算法(IPSO)优化支持向量数据描述(SVDD)相结合的滚动轴承故障诊断方法。该方法首先求取轴承振动信号的本征模态函数,在此基础上得到信号的边际谱以及信号的AR模型参数,积分求取边际谱的能量特征函数和AR模型参数相结合构成系统特征向量。然后针对传统网格搜索法或凭经验确定SVDD核心参数的缺点,提出利用基于动态因子的粒子群算法对SVDD的核心参数惩罚常数C及核函数宽度σ进行优化,利用优化后的SVDD模型对滚动轴承各状态信号进行智能诊断。人工数据集及真实数据集实验结果表明,该方法可以有效识别各故障状态信号,并且优化后模型的诊断效率及诊断精度高于传统网格搜索法确定的模型。     

A novel wideband and circularly polarized cross‐dipole antenna

In this paper, we present a novel wideband circularly polarized (CP) composite, called cavity‐backed crossed dipole antenna for 2.45 GHz industrial, scientific, and medical (ISM) band wireless communication. To excite the CP radiation effectively, a curved‐delay line providing an orthogonal phase difference among the cross‐dipole elements is attached at corners of the sequentially rotated elements. By choosing a proper radius of the curved‐delay line, a wide input impedance of the antenna can be realized. Unlike conventional cross‐dipole antennas, the proposed cross‐dipole antenna is designed with an open stub added to the radiating arms of the dipole so that both impedance and axial ratio bandwidths are enhanced. The antenna is center‐fed by a 50‐Ω coaxial cable and is placed above a cavity‐backed reflector to obtain a directional CP radiation pattern. With the advantage of being center‐fed, a symmetric CP radiation pattern can be achieved across the entire operating bandwidth. To further improve the directivity and the radiation pattern, a rectangular cavity‐backed reflector is used. Simulated and measured results confirm that the proposed antenna has good CP characteristics. The proposed antenna obtains a broad 3‐dB axial ratio bandwidth of 49% (1.20 GHz, 1.96–3.16 GHz) and an impedance bandwidth of 67.7% (1.66 GHz, 1.69–3.35 GHz) for reflection coefficient (S₁₁) ≦ −10 dB. It also yields an average CP gain of 9.2 dBic across the operating bandwidth and a peak CP gain of 10 dBic. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于稀疏AR建模信号去噪研究与应用

为去掉在不同环境、设备下所采集信号中的不同分布形态噪声,引入稀疏优化求解思路构建新的去噪算法。设信号的AR模型系数是稀疏的,且噪声对AR模型系数影响均衡分布,则可用采集的含噪声信号构建稀疏AR模型有效消除噪声。用含噪声信号构建AR系数矩阵作为过完备稀疏基,通过多次重复随机抽取方式获得多个欠定方程组;利用稀疏优化求解算法获取AR模型稀疏系数;据稀疏系数平均值重构信号。仿真实验表明,信号含噪声较大时该算法较经典小波及中值滤波去噪效果更好。     

橡胶沥青老化性能及特征研究

制备了符合技术要求的橡胶沥青,确定了橡胶沥青模拟短期老化试验的适宜温度,通过老化模拟试验评价了橡胶沥青的老化规律.针对橡胶沥青短期老化设计了老化特征试验,并进行了胶粉单独短期老化特征分析.结果表明:橡胶沥青模拟短期老化温度应采用与实际施工温度相对应的180℃;橡胶沥青短期老化过程中橡胶沥青内部仍进行着剧烈的溶胀反应,此作用有可能超过橡胶沥青的老化作用,从而导致一些流变特性规律与老化趋势相反;橡胶沥青实际施工过程中,沥青对胶粉有隔氧保护作用,橡胶颗粒在沥青里主要发生溶胀反应,老化作用很小,从而提高了橡胶沥青的抗老化性能.     

增强现实场景下移动边缘计算资源分配优化方法

针对高速数据传输及计算所带来时延和终端设备能耗问题，提出了一种在上行链路采用等功率分配的传输方案。首先，依据增强现实（AR）业务的协作属性建立了针对AR特性的系统模型；其次，详细分析了系统帧结构，建立以最小化系统消耗总能量为优化目标的约束条件；最后，在保障延迟和功耗满足约束的条件下，建立了基于凸优化的移动边缘计算（MEC）资源优化求解数学模型，从而获得最优的通信和计算资源分配方案。与独立传输相比，该方案在最大延迟时间分别为0.1 s和0.15 s时的总能耗降幅均为14.6%。仿真结果表明，在相同条件下，与基于用户独立传输的优化方案相比，考虑用户间协作传输的等功率MEC优化方案能显著减少系统消耗的总能量。     

Likelihood ratio tests for the structural change of an AR(p) model to a Threshold AR(p) model

This article considers the likelihood ratio (LR) test for the structural change of an AR model to a threshold AR model. Under the null hypothesis, it is shown that the LR test converges weakly to the maxima of a two‐parameter vector Gaussian process. Using the approach in Chan and Tong (1990)and Chan (1991), we obtain a parameter‐free limiting distribution when the errors are normal. This distribution is novel and its percentage points are tabulated via a Monte Carlo method. Simulation studies are carried out to assess the performance of the LR test in the finite sample and a real example is given.     

ASYMPTOTIC INFERENCES FOR AN AR(1) MODEL WITH A CHANGE POINT: STATIONARY AND NEARLY NON‐STATIONARY CASES

This article examines the asymptotic inference for AR(1) models with a possible structural break in the AR parameter β near the unity at an unknown time k₀. Consider the model y_t = β₁y_{t − 1}I{t ≤ k₀} + β₂y_{t − 1}I{t > k₀} + ϵ_t, t = 1,2, … ,T, where I{ ⋅ } denotes the indicator function. We examine two cases: case I | β₁ | < 1,β₂ = β_2T = 1 − c ∕ T; and case II β₁ = β_1T = 1 − c ∕ T, | β₂ | < 1, where c is a fixed constant, and {ϵ_t,t ≥ 1} is a sequence of i.i.d. random variables, which are in the domain of attraction of the normal law with zero means and possibly infinite variances. We derive the limiting distributions of the least squares estimators of β₁ and β₂ and that of the break‐point estimator for shrinking break for the aforementioned cases. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to demonstrate the finite‐sample properties of the estimators. Our theoretical results are supported by Monte Carlo simulations.