Influencer-defaulter mutation-based optimization algorithms for predicting electricity prices

Efficient electricity price forecasting plays a significant role in our society. In this paper, a novel influencer-defaulter mutation (IDM) mutation operator has been proposed. The IDM operator has been combined with six well-known optimization algorithms to create mutated optimization algorithms whose performance has been tested on twenty-four standard benchmark functions. Further, the artificial neural network is integrated with mutated optimization algorithms to solve the electricity price prediction problem. The policymakers can identify appropriate variables based on the predicted prices to help future market planning. The statistical results prove the efficacy of the IDM operator on the recent optimization algorithms.     

Study on power generation and Congo red decolorization of 3D conductive PPy-CNT hydrogel in bioelectrochemical system

In this paper, a polypyrrole-carbon nanotube hydrogel (PPy-CNT) with 3D macroporous structure was prepared by secondary growth method. This self-supporting material with good conductivity and biocompatibility can be directly used as anode in a microbial fuel cell (MFC). The prepared material had a uniform structure with rich 3D porosity and showed good water retention performance. The effect of the mass ratio of PPy and CNT in the hydrogel were also investigated to evaluate the electrical performance of MFC. The MFC with 10:1 PPy-CNT hydrogel anode could reached the maximum power density of 3660.25 mW/m3 and the minimal electrochemical reaction impedance of anode was 5.06 Ω. The effects of Congo red concentration, external resistance and suspended activated sludge on decolorazation and electricity generation were also investigated in the MFC with the best performance hydrogel. When the Congo red concentration was 50 mg/L and the external resistance was 200 Ω, the dye decolorization rate and chemical oxygen demand (COD) removal rate could reach 94.35% and 42.31% at 48h while the output voltage of MFC was 480 mV. When activated sludge was present, the decolorization rate and COD removal rate could be increased to 99.55% and 48.08% at 48 h. The above results showed that the porous hydrogel anode had broad application prospects in synchronous wastewater treatment and electricity production of MFC.     

Systematic analysis and multi-objective optimization of an integrated power and freshwater production cycle

This study represents the results of the analysis and optimization of an integrated system for cogenerating electricity and freshwater. This setup consists of a Solid Oxide Fuel cell (SOFC) for producing electricity. Unburned fuel of the SOFC is burned in the afterburner to increase the temperature of the SOFC's outlet gasses and operate a Gas turbine (GT) to produce additional power and operate the air compressor. At the bottom of this cycle, a combined setup of a Multi-Effect Desalination (MED) and Reverse Osmosis (RO) is considered to produce freshwater from the unused heat capacity of the GT's exhaust gasses. Also, a Stirling engine is used in the fuel supply line to increase the fuel's temperature. Using LNG and the Stirling engine will replace the fuel compressor with a pump which increases the system performance and eliminates the need for the expansion valve. To study the system performance a mathematical model is developed in Engineering Equation Solver (EES) program. Then, the system's simulated data from the EES has been sent to MATLAB to promote the best operating condition based on the optimization criteria. An energetic, exergetic, economic, and environmental analysis has been performed and a Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II) is used to achieve the goal. The two-objective optimization is performed to maximize the exergetic efficiency of the proposed system while minimizing the system's total cost of production. This cost is a weighted distribution of the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) and Levelized Cost of freshwater (LCOW). The results showed that the exergetic and energetic efficiencies of the system can reach 73.5% and 69.06% at the optimum point. The total electricity production of the system is 99 MW. The production cost is 11.71 Cents/kWh, of which 1.04 Cents/kWh is emission-related and environmental taxes. The freshwater production rate is 42.44 kg/s which costs 4.38 USD/m³.     

The influence of the waveguide on the quality of measurements with ultrasonic Doppler velocimetry

The article is devoted to the study of the influence of geometric parameters of sound-conducting walls on the quality of measurement of liquid metal flow velocities by ultrasonic Doppler velocimetry. It was shown that the thickness and radius of a sound-conducting wall (waveguide) have a notable effect on the resulting velocity profiles. The flow in a round pipe, the length of which is much larger than its diameter, is considered as a reference flow. The positive effect of a stepwise waveguides with a diameter smaller than the diameter of the piezoelectric element of an ultrasonic transducer on the quality of velocity measurements was verified experimentally. It was found that the accuracy of the resulting velocity profiles largely depends on the length and the material of the waveguides, as well as the velocity of the incoming flow of liquid metal.     

The perceived sweetness and price of bottled drinks’ silhouettes

This research supports the cross-modal correspondence between the shape of the bottle and consumers’ perception of sweetness and price using physical measures of beverage bottles. Images that add visual weight to the lower section of a package increase the perception of attributes associated with sweetness. In terms of price, the shape of the bottle is informative about its volume, which is the cue predictor of price. Through a within-subject experiment, we evaluated consumers’ perceptions of sweetness and price for a sample of 15 soft drink bottle silhouettes. These perceptions were correlated with the psychophysical characteristics of the silhouettes. Results reveal that sweetness has a negative correlation with height and the visual weight towards the bottom of the bottle. Instead, the price has a positive correlation with the area, width, height, lid, and variance of the bottle shape. Practical implications support having a package design that is consistent with product positioning and attributes.     

Modeling managerial behavior in real options valuation for project-based environments

Project valuation, as a decision-making tool for initiating investments in projects, should be able to value project flexibilities and incorporate reasonable risk preferences of relevant decision makers. Real options valuation methods are the available approaches for valuing project flexibilities, whereas they have shortcomings in considering managers’ reasonable risk preferences in project decisions. Therefore, researchers have suggested approximating the perspective on risk of real options methods and practitioners in project management. This study proposes a fair real options valuation for project-based environments by a behavioral economic approach, which adopts binomial lattice method, Monte-Carlo simulation, and cumulative prospect theory. The results show that behavioral factors such as ‘risk attitude’ and ‘loss aversion’ should be accepted in project investment decisions while limited to an acceptable amount depending on the project conditions (e.g. uniqueness of decision-making scenarios). This research contributes to the project management domain by enhancing project investment decisions that include project flexibilities.     

Remaining useful life prediction for degrading systems with random shocks considering measurement uncertainty

Degradation data have been widely used for the remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of systems. Most existing works apply a preset model to capture the degradation process and focus on the degradation process without shocks or constant shock effects. More generally, the actual degradation path is unobservable due to the existence of measurement uncertainty, which interferes with the determination of the degradation model. Besides, the effect of random shocks is usually fluctuating. Given these problems, a general degradation model with the random shock fluctuant effects considering the measurement uncertainty is first developed to describe the degradation process, and a two-step approach combining the arithmetic average filter and the Bayesian information criterion is adopted to identify the degradation path. Subsequently, the transfer processes of the actual degradation state and the abrupt change caused by shocks are depicted using a two-dimensional state-space model, and an expectation-maximization algorithm combined with the particle filtering is developed for parameter estimation. Furthermore, the explicit solution of RUL distribution is obtained when only considering harmful shocks, while a simulation method of RUL distribution is provided when both harmful and beneficial shocks exist. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by a numerical example and two practical case studies.     

Microbial fuel cells for bioelectricity generation through reduction of hexavalent chromium in wastewater: A review

The study proposes the use of microbial fuel cell (MFC) technology to reduce toxic Cr(VI) present in industrial wastewater to less toxic trivalent chromium [Cr(III)], while generating electricity through a bioelectrochemical oxidation-reduction process. Factors influencing the treatment process and electricity generation include the concentration of Cr(VI) in wastewater, substrate types used for anodes, types of microorganisms involved, types of cathode and anode, surface area of the cathode and anode, and pH and temperature of cathodic and anodic solutions. While other heavy metals in wastewater may be removed by MFC technology, Cr(VI) removal is more efficient in terms of electricity generation. Previous research indicated that the maximum electrical power generated by Cr(VI) removal through the use of MFCs is 1600 mW/m², which is expected to increase as the factors affecting this process are optimized. Based on current data, MFC-based electricity generation along with Cr(VI) removal is a potential future source of sustainable energy. However, research priorities need to focus on reducing the cost of MFC technology by using economical and effective materials and increasing electricity production.     

Wholesale electricity spot market design: Find a way or make it

Designing wholesale electricity spot markets even after three decades of experience in dozens of countries continues to be a challenging task. The challenges arise from a myriad of options that exist without adequate level of unbiased guidance, and experiences in real-life markets where successes and failures are also open to the interpretation of experts. This is particularly a critical issue in the developing world where wholesale spot markets are yet to be established in 80 % of the countries and the experience in the remaining 20 % countries with an operational market, is mixed. There are certain trends in selection of market design that leave significant room for improvement including fallacies that should be avoided. Implementation of markets have also been problematic in most cases including unrealistic timetable and inadequate consideration of transition mechanism that have also hampered market development. In this article, we present our views on how policy makers, stakeholders and development institutions should think about the choices around market design and some of the common pitfalls around its implementation.     

Urbanisation and energy consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa has the lowest access to modern energy and highest urbanisation and population growth rates in the world. The increasing population and its move towards urban areas are expected to exert pressure on existing energy infrastructures and government budgets, introducing uncertainty in the path that future resource consumption might take. Research on the effects of demographic changes on energy use in Sub-Saharan Africa is scarce, with a few studies that only look at this issue tangentially. This research investigates the effect of urbanisation on total energy consumption and electricity consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa. The study estimates this effect using panel data for 49 Sub-Saharan African countries for the period 1980–2014. The size and significance of the urbanisation variable, measured as the total number of people living in urban areas, is estimated for total energy consumption, total electricity consumption and electricity consumption per capita. To isolate the effect of the urbanisation variable, the analysis controls for several demographic and socio-economic variables. Recognising the political aspects of energy infrastructures and investment, the analysis control for governance, a novel addition in these types of studies. There are two main findings: urbanisation has a positive and significant effect on total energy consumption, the size and significance of this effect varies across country income groups; urbanisation has a negative effect on total electricity consumption and electricity consumption per capita, the size and significance of which varies across country income groups.