Unreliable numbers: error and harm induced by bad design can be reduced by better design

Number entry is a ubiquitous activity and is often performed in safety- and mission-critical procedures, such as healthcare, science, finance, aviation and in many other areas. We show that Monte Carlo methods can quickly and easily compare the reliability of different number entry systems. A surprising finding is that many common, widely used systems are defective, and induce unnecessary human error. We show that Monte Carlo methods enable designers to explore the implications of normal and unexpected operator behaviour, and to design systems to be more resilient to use error. We demonstrate novel designs with improved resilience, implying that the common problems identified and the errors they induce are avoidable.     

Classification of the cardiotocogram data for anticipation of fetal risks using machine learning techniques

The aim of the research is evaluating the classification performances of eight different machine-learning methods on the antepartum cardiotocography (CTG) data. The classification is necessary to predict newborn health, especially for the critical cases. Cardiotocography is used for assisting the obstetricians’ to obtain detailed information during the pregnancy as a technique of measuring fetal well-being, essentially in pregnant women having potential complications. The obstetricians describe CTG shortly as a continuous electronic record of the baby's heart rate took from the mother's abdomen. The acquired information is necessary to visualize unhealthiness of the embryo and gives an opportunity for early intervention prior to happening a permanent impairment to the embryo. The aim of the machine learning methods is by using attributes of data obtained from the uterine contraction (UC) and fetal heart rate (FHR) signals to classify as pathological or normal. The dataset contains 1831 instances with 21 attributes, examined by applying the methods. In the paper, the highest accuracy displayed as 99.2%.     

A GIS plug-in for Bayesian belief networks: Towards a transparent software framework to assess and visualise uncertainties in ecosystem service mapping

The complexity and spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem processes driving ecosystem service delivery require spatially explicit models that take into account the different parameters affecting those processes. Current attempts to model ecosystem service delivery on a broad, regional scale often depend on indicator-based approaches that are generally not able to fully capture the complexity of ecosystem processes. Moreover, they do not allow quantification of uncertainty on their predictions. In this paper, we discuss a QGIS plug-in which promotes the use of Bayesian belief networks for regional modelling and mapping of ecosystem service delivery and associated uncertainties. Different types of specific Bayesian belief network output maps, delivered by the plug-in, are discussed and their decision support capacities are evaluated. This plug-in, used in combination with firmly developed Bayesian belief networks, has the potential to add value to current spatial ecosystem service accounting methods. The plug-in can also be used in other research domains dealing with spatial data and uncertainty.     

Reduction of waste biosolids by RAS-ozonation: Model validation and sensitivity analysis for biosolids reduction and nitrification

Biosolids reduction model by return activated sludge ozonation was validated by simulating nitrification data compiled from our pilot-scale and the literature studies. Then, a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) was performed to identify influential and non-influential parameters for biosolids reduction efficiency, change in specific nitrification activity (SNA), and alteration to expected nitrification stability. In general, the model outputs were sensitive to operational and ozone reaction parameters, but not to biochemical parameters. For operational parameters, mainly temperature and initial solids retention time (SRT) influenced all model outputs. For biosolids reduction, increase in the degradability of the influent COD decreased the reduction efficiency. For SNA, the changes were highly dependent on the influent TKN/COD ratio. Our findings also imply that the stability of the nitrification process in ozonated systems should be enhanced at constant MLVSS for warm temperatures, but could be reduced at temperatures below 12 °C and aerated SRTs below 10 days.     

共网数字集群系统应用问题的研究

现今国内的数字集群网络发展存在局限性、差异性，还远没有达到“网”状分布的程度，因此，共网数字集群发展空间巨大、前景广阔。通过列举共网数字集群系统在龙嘉国际机场和长春雷锋车队的成功应用案例，探讨了我国共网数字集群系统应用的可行性和必要性。     

Decomposition of first-order hybrid Petri nets for hierarchical control of manufacturing systems

Although hybrid Petri net (HPN) is a popular formalism in modelling hybrid production systems, the HPN model of large scale systems gets substantially complicated for analysis and control due to large dimensionality of such systems. To overcome this problem, a typical approach is to decompose the net into subnets and then control the plant through hierarchical or decentralized structures. Although this concept has been widely discussed in the literature for discrete PNs, there is a lack of research for HPNs. In this paper, a new method of decomposition of first-order hybrid Petri nets (FOHPNs) is proposed first and then the hierarchical control of the subnets through a coordinator is introduced. The advantage of using the proposed approach is validated by an existing example. A sugar milling case study is analysed by using a decomposed FOHPN model and the optimization results are compared against the results of the approaches presented in other papers. Simulation results show not only an improvement in production rate, but also show the ability to control the plant online. In addition, by using the hierarchical control structure for an FOHPN model, it is possible to reduce the cost of communication links, improve the reliability of the system, maintain the plant locally, and partially redesign the system.     

An industrial case study on variability handling in large enterprise software systems

ContextEnterprise software systems (e.g., enterprise resource planning software) are often deployed in different contexts (e.g., different organizations or different business units or branches of one organization). However, even though organizations, business units or branches have the same or similar business goals, they may differ in how they achieve these goals. Thus, many enterprise software systems are subject to variability and adapted depending on the context in which they are used.ObjectiveOur goal is to provide a snapshot of variability in large scale enterprise software systems. We aim at understanding the types of variability that occur in large industrial enterprise software systems. Furthermore, we aim at identifying how variability is handled in such systems.MethodWe performed an exploratory case study in two large software organizations, involving two large enterprise software systems. Data were collected through interviews and document analysis. Data were analyzed following a grounded theory approach.ResultsWe identified seven types of variability (e.g., functionality, infrastructure) and eight mechanisms to handle variability (e.g., add-ons, code switches).ConclusionsWe provide generic types for classifying variability in enterprise software systems, and reusable mechanisms for handling such variability. Some variability types and handling mechanisms for enterprise software systems found in the real world extend existing concepts and theories. Others confirm findings from previous research literature on variability in software in general and are therefore not specific to enterprise software systems. Our findings also offer a theoretical foundation for describing variability handling in practice. Future work needs to provide more evaluations of the theoretical foundations, and refine variability handling mechanisms into more detailed practices.     

Cheese fortification using saturated monoglyceride self‐assembly structures as carrier of omega‐3 fatty acids

The purpose of this research was to study the capacity of emulsions containing saturated monoglyceride self‐assembly structures to deliver omega‐3 fatty acids in fresh soft cheese. To this aim, fortified emulsions containing different ratios of milk, saturated monoglycerides (MGs) and cod liver oil were added to milk before cheese‐making. These emulsions were characterised by distinct microstructural features observed by polarised light microscopy and apparent viscosity values. The omega‐3 delivery performance of MG emulsions highlighted that this strategy allowed a good retention of the omega‐3‐rich oil in the curd (up to 75%). The fortified cheeses showed yield value and fat content higher than those of control samples. The enriched cheese showed hardness and cohesiveness obtained by texture profile analysis similar to those of the unfortified product. Only a slight decrease in gumminess was detected in fortified cheese.