Modeling managerial behavior in real options valuation for project-based environments

Project valuation, as a decision-making tool for initiating investments in projects, should be able to value project flexibilities and incorporate reasonable risk preferences of relevant decision makers. Real options valuation methods are the available approaches for valuing project flexibilities, whereas they have shortcomings in considering managers’ reasonable risk preferences in project decisions. Therefore, researchers have suggested approximating the perspective on risk of real options methods and practitioners in project management. This study proposes a fair real options valuation for project-based environments by a behavioral economic approach, which adopts binomial lattice method, Monte-Carlo simulation, and cumulative prospect theory. The results show that behavioral factors such as ‘risk attitude’ and ‘loss aversion’ should be accepted in project investment decisions while limited to an acceptable amount depending on the project conditions (e.g. uniqueness of decision-making scenarios). This research contributes to the project management domain by enhancing project investment decisions that include project flexibilities.     

Homophily horizons and ethnic mover flows among homeowners in Scotland

Abstract

This article analyses mover flows in Glasgow and the role of ethnic homophily, the tendency for movers to be drawn to areas with similar ethnicities to their own. We look at how homophily affects the spatial relocation patterns of homeowners in Glasgow from Scottish, Indian, Pakistani and Chinese descent, and focus on the extent to which homophily extends beyond the immediate locality to surrounding neighbourhoods. Our interest is in estimating the “homophily horizon” – how far the gaze of homophily reaches in mover location decisions. Using a simple Schelling-type theoretical model, we argue that homophily horizons are potentially important in shaping the long-term social structure of cities as they may profoundly affect how potent the overall sorting tendencies of the housing market are in driving segregation. In principle, the more distant the homophily horizon, the more quickly the housing market will tend towards segregation, other things being equal. We adopt Folch and Rey’s use of the local centralization index to capture the influence of surrounding neighbourhoods in shaping mover flows and neighbourhood dynamics. Our estimation combines ethnic mover flows derived from surname analysis of house buyers from the house transactions recorded in Registers of Scotland data. Our results show that the presence of the own ethnic group in the local surroundings is important for explaining mover flows, and that homophily is a local phenomenon.     

基于三支决策的模糊信息系统OWA算子参数选择

在模糊信息系统中，通过有序加权平均（Ordered weighted averaging,OWA）算子计算对象相似度，可以建立λ截集的相容关系。当λ的值确定后，OWA算子中量词参数(α,β)的选取直接关系到不可区分关系的建立以及信息粒的粗细。因此合理选取参数(α,β)是值得进一步研究的问题。本文采用粗糙集三支决策理论，研究模糊信息系统 OWA算子参数选择的相关内容。基于参数的激进、中庸和消极语义，确定OWA算子(α,β)的3种常用取值；进而研究相似度、相容类、双向近似和三支区域在3种参数选择下的性质关系。最后利用实例验证分析了模糊量词参数语义解释的合理性。本文采用三支决策创新视角，得到模糊信息系统OWA算子的深入性质，为相关模糊量词参数提供语义解释与选择依据。     

Trademarks and the patent premium value: Evidence from medical and cosmetic products

The determinants of the premium value of patents for medical and cosmetic products are analyzed with respect to a complementary IP strategy such as trademarks. I discuss a novel method and database to gauge combinations of patent and trademark pairs regarding the same innovative project. The premium value is computed through a model of renewal decisions for the patent cohorts 1985–1990 that have been designated in the U.K. and Germany. After taking into the account several firm characteristics and patent indicators typically used in the literature, I find ample evidences that patent and trademark pairs are featured by higher valuations.     

Modeling and analysis of uncertainties for risk-informed decisions in infrastructures engineering

Engineers deal with uncertainties in all their activities, and must often make decisions under conditions of uncertainty and risk. Infrastructures engineering is no exception—design codes are developed to ensure a desired level of safety and performance, or to ensure a specified operational life with a prescribed level of reliability; the required decisions must often be formulated without complete information and thus contain uncertainties. In considering uncertainties, it is important to recognize two broad types; namely, the aleatory type which is associated with natural randomness and the epistemic type which is associated with imperfect knowledge. Proposed here is a framework for the proper modeling and treatment of each type of uncertainty in the formulation of risk-informed engineering decisions. The concepts are illustrated with applications to bridges and offshore marine structures.     

政策约束下的制造商与再制造商生产决策分析

在由一个制造商和一个再制造商构成的市场中,考虑消费者对于制造商的新产品、再制造产品以及再制造商的再制造产品都有着不同支付意愿的情形下,研究立法机构在制定制造商应回收处理新产品最低比例的约束情形时,对于企业收益、消费者剩余、环境效益以及社会福利的影响。研究表明,回收比例升高,会降低制造商新产品产量并提高其价格。同时,提高回收比例也可能会降低市场上的再制造产品数量。此外,环境效益与最低回收目标正相关。数值分析表明,当消费者对于再制造产品的支付意愿越高时,则社会福利越高。通过与回收基金政策进行对比,制定最低回收率对环境效益提高作用更显著。     

A dynamic programming approach for economic optimisation of lifetime-extending maintenance,renovation, and replacement of public infrastructure assets under differential inflation

In the next decades, many public infrastructure assets will reach the end of their life that they were originally designed for. Replacement costs are high, and therefore increasing effort is put into lifetime-extending maintenance, including major overhauls and renovations. A key question is whether the investments in lifetime-extending maintenance justify the postponement of a full replacement. This question becomes more complicated when future life cycle cash flows are non-repeatable. Differential inflation and technological change, including multiple intervention strategies to maintain a desired functionality, cause such non-repeatability. In this case, classic replacement analysis techniques will not suffice in answering this question. Literature demonstrates that case-specific modelling with dynamic or linear programming techniques is required to find economic optimisation. However, such literature primarily addresses replacement interval optimisation of new investments within relative short time horizons, whereas the current research develops a nested dynamic programming (DP) approach for typical ageing infrastructure assets over long service life periods. The model can deal with multiple and various successive intervention strategies and addresses differential inflation and age-related cost increases. Finally, it is shown in an infrastructure case study that this DP approach leads to a better decision in comparison to the application of classical replacement techniques.     

“I’ll have what he’s having”: Group ordering behavior in food choice decisions

Current research has focused on whether nutrition labeling and pricing policies (e.g., soda taxes) influence food decisions; however, less attention has been given to how peers influence one’s food decisions. This study uses sales receipts from a full-service restaurant to take a closer look at how people order in groups. Results of the study revealed people may be less variety-seeking than previous research suggests; in fact, diners were more likely to seek variety when choosing an individual item, but not when choosing a menu category. In other words, diners wanted to be different from their dining companions, but not too different. This result was further confirmed with a model of food choice which shows diners derived more utility from an entrée when a fellow diner ordered an entrée in the same category. Interestingly, the presence of calorie labels on menus did not change the marginal utility of calories, suggesting peer effects may outweigh the effects of nutritional information.     

A Qualitative Study of Hard Decision Making in Managing Global Software Development Teams

We empirically explored the implication of hard decisions in the context of the management of global software development (GSD) teams. We hypothesized and empirically tested our belief that hard decision making in conventional development projects is very similar to GSD and differences arise from the nature of the relationship and the ranking of issues. Findings from a Delphi study illustrated our approach and shed some light into the management of GSD teams.     

Assessment of driver stopping prediction models before and after the onset of yellow using two driving simulator datasets

Accurate modeling of driver decisions in dilemma zones (DZ), where drivers are not sure whether to stop or go at the onset of yellow, can be used to increase safety at signalized intersections. This study utilized data obtained from two different driving simulator studies (VT-SCORES and NADS datasets) to investigate the possibility of developing accurate driver-decision prediction/classification models in DZ. Canonical discriminant analysis was used to construct the prediction models, and two timeframes were considered. The first timeframe used data collected during green immediately before the onset of yellow, and the second timeframe used data collected during the first three seconds after the onset of yellow. Signal protection algorithms could use the results of the prediction model during the first timeframe to decide the best time for ending the green signal, and could use the results of the prediction model during the first three seconds of yellow to extend the clearance interval. It was found that the discriminant model using data collected during the first three seconds of yellow was the most accurate, at 99% accuracy. It was also found that data collection should focus on variables that are related to speed, acceleration, time, and distance to intersection, as opposed to secondary variables, such as pavement conditions, since secondary variables did not significantly change the accuracy of the prediction models. The results reveal a promising possibility for incorporating the developed models in traffic-signal controllers to improve DZ-protection strategies.