Application of robust machine learning methods to modeling hydrogen solubility in hydrocarbon fuels

Having accurate information about the hydrogen solubility in hydrocarbon fuels and feedstocks is very important in petroleum refineries and coal processing plants. In the present work, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), multi-layer perceptron (MLP) trained with Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) algorithm, adaptive boosting support vector regression (AdaBoost?SVR), and a memory-efficient gradient boosting tree system on adaptive compact distributions (LiteMORT) as four novel machine learning methods were used for estimating the hydrogen solubility in hydrocarbon fuels. To achieve this goal, a database containing 445 experimental data of hydrogen solubilities in 17 various hydrocarbon fuels/feedstocks was collected in wide-spread ranges of operating pressures and temperatures. These hydrocarbon fuels include petroleum fractions, refinery products, coal liquids, bitumen, and shale oil. Input parameters of the models are temperature and pressure along with density at 20 °C, molecular weight, and weight percentage of carbon (C) and hydrogen (H) of hydrocarbon fuels. XGBoost showed the highest accuracy compared to the other models with an overall mean absolute percent relative error of 1.41% and coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.9998. Also, seven equations of state (EOSs) were used to predict hydrogen solubilities in hydrocarbon fuels. The 2- and 3-parameter Soave-Redlich-Kwong EOS rendered the best estimates for hydrogen solubilities among the EOSs. Moreover, sensitivity analysis indicated that pressure owns the highest influence on hydrogen solubilities in hydrocarbon fuels and then temperature and hydrogen weight percent of the hydrocarbon fuels are ranked, respectively. Finally, Leverage approach results exhibited that the XGBoost model could be well trusted to estimate the hydrogen solubility in hydrocarbon fuels.     

A gradient boosting decision tree approach for insider trading identification: An empirical model evaluation of China stock market

Insider trading is a kind of criminal behavior in stock market by using nonpublic information. In recent years, it has become the major illegal activity in China’s stock market. In this study, a combination approach of GBDT (Gradient Boosting Decision Tree) and DE (Differential Evolution) is proposed to identify insider trading activities by using data of relevant indicators. First, insider trading samples occurred from year 2007 to 2017 and corresponding non-insider trading samples are collected. Next, the proposed method is trained by the GBDT, and initial parameters of the GBDT are optimized by the DE. Finally, out-of-samples are classified by the trained GBDT–DE model and its performances are evaluated. The experiment results show that our proposed method performed the best for insider trading identification under time window length of ninety days, indicating the relevant indicators under 90-days time window length are relatively more useful. Additionally, under all three time window lengths, relative importance result shows that several indicators are consistently crucial for insider trading identification. Furthermore, the proposed approach significantly outperforms other benchmark methods, demonstrating that it could be applied as an intelligent system to improve identification accuracy and efficiency for insider trading regulation in China stock market.     

In-line characterization of dispersion uniformity evolution during a twin-screw blending extrusion based on near-infrared spectroscopy

Properties of an immiscible polymer blend have been proved to be closely related to dispersion uniformity of the minor phase. At present, dispersion uniformity is difficult to evaluate during the blending process, resulting in hysteretic feedback. Aiming at this problem, this work utilized near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy to in-line characterize dispersion uniformity evolution during a twin-screw extrusion. A multichannel NIR measurement system was set up and applied to evaluate the blending process of polypropylene and polyolefin elastomer (POE). Based on the NIR spectra collected at different positions of the extruder, five prediction models of POE content were established using the light gradient boosting machine algorithm. Dispersion uniformity was characterized through the fluctuation of the predicted content. The evolution of dispersion under such processing parameters was consistent with scanning electron microscopy.     

A Novel Method of Heart Failure Prediction Based on DPCNNXGBOOST Model

The occurrence of perioperative heart failure will affect the quality of medical services and threaten the safety of patients. Existing methods depend on the judgment of doctors, the results are affected by many factors such as doctors’ knowledge and experience. The accuracy is difficult to guarantee and has a serious lag. In this paper, a mixture prediction model is proposed for perioperative adverse events of heart failure, which combined with the advantages of the Deep Pyramid Convolutional Neural Networks (DPCNN) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBOOST). The DPCNN was used to automatically extract features from patient’s diagnostic texts, and the text features were integrated with the preoperative examination and intraoperative monitoring values of patients, then the XGBOOST algorithm was used to construct the prediction model of heart failure. An experimental comparison was conducted on the model based on the data of patients with heart failure in southwest hospital from 2014 to 2018. The results showed that the DPCNN-XGBOOST model improved the predictive sensitivity of the model by 3% and 31% compared with the text-based DPCNN Model and the numeric-based XGBOOST Model.     

A self-adaptive synthetic over-sampling technique for imbalanced classification

Traditionally, in supervised machine learning, (a significant) part of the available data (usually 50%-80%) is used for training and the rest—for validation. In many problems, however, the data are highly imbalanced in regard to different classes or does not have good coverage of the feasible data space which, in turn, creates problems in validation and usage phase. In this paper, we propose a technique for synthesizing feasible and likely data to help balance the classes as well as to boost the performance in terms of confusion matrix as well as overall. The idea, in a nutshell, is to synthesize data samples in close vicinity to the actual data samples specifically for the less represented (minority) classes. This has also implications to the so-called fairness of machine learning. In this paper, we propose a specific method for synthesizing data in a way to balance the classes and boost the performance, especially of the minority classes. It is generic and can be applied to different base algorithms, for example, support vector machines, k-nearest neighbour classifiers deep neural, rule-based classifiers, decision trees, and so forth. The results demonstrated that (a) a significantly more balanced (and fair) classification results can be achieved and (b) that the overall performance as well as the performance per class measured by confusion matrix can be boosted. In addition, this approach can be very valuable for the cases when the number of actual available labelled data is small which itself is one of the problems of the contemporary machine learning.     

Evolving an Accurate Decision Tree-Based Model for Predicting Carbon Dioxide Solubility in Polymers

Solubility is one of the most indispensable physicochemical properties determining the compatibility of components of a blending system. Research has been focused on the solubility of carbon dioxide in polymers as a significant application of green chemistry. To replace costly and time-consuming experiments, a novel solubility prediction model based on a decision tree, called the stochastic gradient boosting algorithm, was proposed to predict CO₂ solubility in 13 different polymers, based on 515 published experimental data lines. The results indicate that the proposed ensemble model is an effective method for predicting the CO₂ solubility in various polymers, with highly satisfactory performance and high efficiency. It produces more accurate outputs than other methods such as machine learning schemes and an equation of state approach.     

Prediction of pullout interaction coefficient of geogrids by extreme gradient boosting model

Geogrids embedded in fill materials are checked against pullout failure through standard pullout testing methodology. The test determines the pullout interaction coefficient which is critical in fixing the embedment length of geogrids in mechanically stabilized earth walls. This paper proposes prediction of pullout interaction coefficient using data driven machine learning regression algorithms. The study primarily focusses on using extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) method for prediction. A data set containing 220 test results from the literature has been used for training and testing. Predicted results of XGBoost have been compared with the results of random forest (RF) ensemble learning based algorithm. The predictions of XGBoost model indicates 85% accuracy and that of RF model shows 77% accuracy, indicating significantly superior and robust prediction through XGBoost above RF model. The importance analysis indicates that normal stress is the most significant factor that influences the pullout interaction coefficients. Subsequently pullout tests have been performed on geogrid embedded in four different fill materials at three normal stresses. The proposed XGBoost model gives 90% accuracy in prediction of pullout interaction coefficient compared to laboratory test results. Finally, an open-source graphical user interface based on the XGBoost model has been created for preliminary estimation of the pullout interaction coefficient of geogrid at different test conditions.     

注能(以CO_2为例)改性驱替开采CH_4理论与实验研究

在简述煤层气开采技术发展历程基础上,针对煤层气抽放开采率低的问题,提出了注能改性驱替开采煤层气技术,并从有效应力与热力学原理,能量平衡理论等方面进行了可行性分析。通过自主研发系列实验设备,对大尺寸、低渗透煤样进行了不同应力与温度条件下的渗透与驱替置换实验,揭示了注CO_2驱替开采煤层气的机理、规律与特征。研究结果表明:CO_2在煤体表面的吸附势大于CH_4,CO_2吸附引起的煤体表面自由能变化和吸附热均强于CH_4,注能(CO_2)有助于煤层气采收率提高;在一定的约束应力条件下,注入压力升高,CO_2吸附引起的煤体表面自由能变化和吸附热升高,同时作用在煤体上的有效应力降低,煤体的渗透性增强,CO_2驱替置换效果提高,反之,注入压力不变约束应力增大,有效应力增加,煤体渗透率降低,驱替置换效果变差;煤体对超临界态CO_2有很强的吸附性,在较大的有效应力和较低渗透率条件下,依然能保持较高的CO_2/CH_4置换率;提高注入CO_2温度,有助于部分吸附CH_4解吸,但同时煤体对CO_2吸附能力也减弱,导致CO_2/CH_4置换率有所降低。     

Multi-objective optimization of shield construction parameters based on random forests and NSGA-II

Metro shield construction will inevitably cause changes in the stress and strain state of the surrounding soil, resulting in stratum deformation and surface settlement (SS), which will seriously endanger the safety of nearby buildings, roads and underground pipe networks. Therefore, in the design and construction stage, optimizing the shield construction parameters (SCP) is the key to reducing the SS rate and increasing the safe driving speed (DS). However, optimization of existing SCP are challenged by the need to construct a unified multiobjective model for optimization that are efficient, convenient, and widely applicable. This paper innovatively proposes a hybrid intelligence framework that combines random forest (RF) and non-dominant classification genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II), which overcomes the shortcomings of time-consuming and high cost for the establishment and verification of traditional prediction models. First, RF is used to rank the importance of 10 influencing factors, and the nonlinear mapping relationship between the main SCP and the two objectives is constructed as the fitness function of the NSGA-II algorithm. Second, a multiobjective optimization framework for RF-NSGA-II is established, based on which the optimal Pareto front is calculated, and reasonable optimized control ranges for the SCP are obtained. Finally, a case study in the Wuhan Rail Transit Line 6 project is examined. The results show that the SS is reduced by 12.5% and the DS is increased by 2.5% with the proposed framework. Meanwhile, the prediction results are compared with the back-propagation neural network (BPNN), support vector machine (SVM), and gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT). The findings indicate that the RF-NSGA-II framework can not only meet the requirements of SS and DS calculation, but also used as a support tool for real-time optimization and control of SCP.