基于概率法的电力系统安全分析

为应对电力系统安全分析中的停机问题，基于概率法的方式，将常用的确定停机计算与加入了概率法的概率停机进行比较，研究了二者的区别与其在长期投资方向的不同。在进行电力系统停机分析时，通常会分别从确定停机与概率停机的角度出发，对其应急状态下的潮流进行计算。但前者的方法可能导致极低概率的停机事件被忽略，进而影响长期的资金投资。通过加入概率法的计算，使得对单个停机事件的判定由其具体的频率来确定，增加了系统运行的稳定性。     

基于误差估值累加开环校正的诱导式欺骗检测方法

诱导式卫星欺骗干扰可诱导航空器逐渐偏离预定航迹，难以被发现，因此及时有效地检测干扰是飞行安全的保障。在现有紧组合导航体制基础上，设计了一种基于误差估值累加开环校正的紧组合导航结构，并证明了其性能与传统闭环校正紧组合导航性能等效。在此结构中，将紧组合导航系统与自适应序贯概率比检测方法结合，提出了一种基于误差估值累加开环校正的诱导式欺骗检测方法，融合紧组合导航信息与其他不受欺骗影响的导航信息，构建欺骗检测统计量进行诱导式欺骗检测。仿真结果表明，开环校正结构可避免随时间累加的惯性导航系统误差所导致的组合导航滤波器发散问题，同时欺骗检测方法可进一步提高算法对“最坏”情形下微小诱导式欺骗的检测效果。     

改进的CAGAN在虚拟试衣中的应用

针对CAGAN（Conditional Analogy GAN）换衣后效果模糊，在目标衣服与原始衣服长短不一致时效果一般，相对目标衣服保留过少的细节等问题做了相关研究并对CAGAN进行了改进，提出了新的虚拟试衣方式。经过改进的CAGAN生成一个粗糙的结果，由该结果得到目标衣服穿在模特身上改变形状后的mask，接下来利用mask对目标衣服进行变形，综合变形的衣服和第一步的结果便得到最终的试衣图像。实验结果表明，该方法解决了前面存在的问题，而且取得了非常好的效果。     

No-reference quality assessment of dynamic sports videos based on a spatiotemporal motion model

This paper proposes an approach to improve the performance of no-reference video quality assessment for sports videos with dynamic motion scenes using an efficient spatiotemporal model. In the proposed method, we divide the video sequences into video blocks and apply a 3D shearlet transform that can efficiently extract primary spatiotemporal features to capture dynamic natural motion scene statistics from the incoming video blocks. The concatenation of a deep residual bidirectional gated recurrent neural network and logistic regression is used to learn the spatiotemporal correlation more robustly and predict the perceptual quality score. In addition, conditional video block-wise constraints are incorporated into the objective function to improve quality estimation performance for the entire video. The experimental results show that the proposed method extracts spatiotemporal motion information more effectively and predicts the video quality with higher accuracy than the conventional no-reference video quality assessment methods.     

Advances in statistical mechanics of rock masses and its engineering applications

To efficiently link the continuum mechanics for rocks with the structural statistics of rock masses,a theoretical and methodological system called the statistical mechanics of rock masses(SMRM)was developed in the past three decades.In SMRM,equivalent continuum models of stressestrain relationship,strength and failure probability for jointed rock masses were established,which were based on the geometric probability models characterising the rock mass structure.This follows the statistical physics,the continuum mechanics,the fracture mechanics and the weakest link hypothesis.A general constitutive model and complete stressestrain models under compressive and shear conditions were also developed as the derivatives of the SMRM theory.An SMRM calculation system was then developed to provide fast and precise solutions for parameter estimations of rock masses,such as full-direction rock quality designation(RQD),elastic modulus,Coulomb compressive strength,rock mass quality rating,and Poisson’s ratio and shear strength.The constitutive equations involved in SMRM were integrated into a FLAC3D based numerical module to apply for engineering rock masses.It is also capable of analysing the complete deformation of rock masses and active reinforcement of engineering rock masses.Examples of engineering applications of SMRM were presented,including a rock mass at QBT hydropower station in northwestern China,a dam slope of Zongo II hydropower station in D.R.Congo,an open-pit mine in Dexing,China,an underground powerhouse of Jinping I hydropower station in southwestern China,and a typical circular tunnel in Lanzhou-Chongqing railway,China.These applications verified the reliability of the SMRM and demonstrated its applicability to broad engineering issues associated with jointed rock masses.     

Attitudinal choice models with applications in human decision making

A new family of attitudinal discrete choice models is proposed by considering the attitudinal character and the weight vector, both of which are specific to a decision maker (DM). Given the attribute values of different alternatives, the proposed models give varying choice probabilities, as per the DM's-specific attitudinal character and the weight vector. It is also shown that the conventional discrete choice models are the special cases of the proposed attitudinal models. The proposed choice models are also generalized through an additional parameter to add to their capabilities. An application on real data is included to demonstrate their usefulness in the real world.     

含分布式能源区域电网月最大净负荷概率预测

负荷预测在电网规划和运行中十分重要,大规模分布式能源接入电网参与能量交换,可使电网用户优化其用电模式,但造成区域电网月最大净负荷特性发生根本性改变,增加了月最大净负荷预测的不确定性。为此,结合BP神经网络算法与分位数回归模型,构建了区域电网月最大净负荷的非线性概率预测模型;并利用核密度估计算法计算得到了月最大净负荷概率预测分布曲线;最后,以上海某含分布式能源区域电网为例,验证了该方法的可行性与可靠性。结果表明,该方法可准确刻画月最大净负荷波动特性,为电网规划与负荷管理提供依据。     

节理岩体边坡采动损伤与可靠性分析

为定量分析节理岩体边坡的采动损伤对边坡可靠性的影响,通过对大孤山铁矿下盘混合岩边坡进行现场勘测与模糊C均值聚类优化分析,确定了岩体2组优势节理的倾向、倾角、迹长和密度的随机分布参数。利用Hoek-Brown强度准则参数m和s与岩体质量分类指标GSI和扰动系数的关系,采用Monte-Carlo模拟抽样技术获得了节理岩体强度的随机分布参数。建立了节理岩体损伤与扰动系数D的联系,应用Kawarnoto损伤张量对采动损伤进行了数值分析,并根据Rosenblueth原理获得了扰动系数D以及反映时空效应和各向异性的岩体强度随机分布参数。基于此,定量分析了大孤山铁矿下盘混合岩节理岩体边坡采动损伤的时空变化特征及其对边坡稳定性的影响。结果表明,采场底标高从-87 m降至最终-450 m时,坡顶至-87 m水平同一高度滑弧可靠性指标相对下降7.7%,原因为采场下移导致节理岩体损伤加剧、强度降低所致,并且危险滑面逐渐向坡面偏移,与坡面近处岩体的损伤较大相关。