建筑工业化发展的多群体演化博弈与仿真研究

新型建筑工业化具有高质量、低消耗、可循环发展等特征，其推广已上升到国家战略层面。利用演化博弈方法，建立“政府-开发商-银行” 的三方动态演化博弈模型，进行各博弈主体策略的演化稳定性分析，并针对初始状态、奖惩力度、借贷风险和开发成本等对演化结果的影响进行动态仿真。在此基础上， 考虑开发商群体的网络拓扑特征对演化真实性的影响，引入复杂网络理论， 以无标度网络为载体描述开发商个体的连接偏好和决策机制，构建政府监管下的建筑工业化扩散模型，并通过仿真深入研究相关因素对扩散深度的影响作用，最后结合仿真结果给出相应对策建议。     

一种有效折扣证据源的冲突证据合成方法

为解决证据组合规则中一票否决和弱决策证据在低冲突情况下出现的反直观推理的现象，提出一种有效折扣证据源的冲突证据合成方法。首先根据证据的信任函数和似然函数求得证据间的相似度，然后求出证据之间的支持程度，并确定折扣因子，最后采用Dempster组合规则合成利用折扣因子修正后的证据源。数值算例分析结果表明，改进后的证据组合方法可以有效地处理证据冲突。     

Boccia game simulator: Serious game adapted for people with disabilities

Integration in the world of sport is one way for individuals with disabilities or motor disorders to feel more socially integrated, independent, and confident. Boccia is a Paralympic sport, which is increasingly getting more attention around the world. These facts have contributed to the objectives of this work. Including it in the serious games category enables to develop and rehabilitate the cognitive capabilities. The main focus was BC3 classification athletes (users with limited motor characteristics that require the use of an assistive device—a ramp, in this case). This paper describes a realistic Boccia game simulator adapted for people with disabilities that integrates a set of features that includes real physics and social features. These features can be used to enhance the interest of nonpractitioners of the sport and to improve the training conditions. The official Boccia regulation was added to the design of the simulator. The usability and approximation to the reality of the simulator were tested and validated based on the tests performed and data collected via a survey of users with no motor or psychological disorders. Realism and usability rating was almost excellent, and good results were achieved at the assessment of the game experience.     

基于博弈分析的流域水资源配置

针对传统规划方法难以体现水资源配置过程中多种复杂因素的问题,基于博弈理论建立宏观调控和市场经济相结合的水资源配置动态博弈模型,求解其子博弈精炼纳什均衡下各博弈参与人的策略,并运用改进量子遗传算法求解该博弈模型。对A河流域水资源配置结果表明,在保证流域公共生态用水2.0×10~8 m~3的基础上,各用水子区自发约束自身的取水量,达到均衡时,社会总收益为11.27亿元,相比自由取水模型,社会总收益增加了0.95亿元,增幅为9.2%。     

一种军棋机器博弈的多棋子协同博弈方法

针对在军棋博弈不完全信息对弈中，面对棋子不同价值、不同位置、不同搭配所产生的不同棋力，传统的单子意图搜索算法，不能满足棋子之间的协同性与沟通性，同时也缺乏对敌方的引诱与欺骗等高级对抗能力。本文提出一种结合UCT搜索策略的高价值棋子博弈方法，实现高价值棋子协同博弈的策略。实战经验表明:高价值多棋子军棋协同博弈策略优于单棋子军棋博弈策略。     

Using enterprise social media to investigate the effect of workplace conflict on employee creativity

Enterprise social media (ESM) has been commonly used by businesses and companies to provide a framework for communication and cooperation among individuals. However, studies have presented vague results related to the characteristics of ESM usage, which may be beneficial for workplace managers to enhance individual creativity. This study uses primary data from 346 Chinese employees working in different companies to assess the role of ESM usage in managing workplace conflict. Findings show that ESM usage has negative and insignificant effects on task and relationship conflicts, respectively. In addition, relationship conflict has a negative effect on individual creativity, while task conflict shows a curvilinear relationship with creativity. Task interdependence strengthens the relationship between ESM use and task conflict, but shows an insignificant relationship between ESM use and relationship conflict. Lastly, this research discusses the theoretical and managerial implications.     

溢出效应和网络贴合度扰动下的二级供应链网络广告投放策略分析

为研究溢出效应和网络贴合度扰动下,二级供应链的网络广告投放策略问题,以强势制造商和两个网络零售商组成的二级供应链为研究对象,考虑产品的网络贴合度和网络广告计费特征,构建基于溢出效应的期望需求模型,通过博弈论方法给出了完全不合作、合作、半合作、战略联盟等4种模式下的均衡解,并对以上4种均衡结果进行比较分析。研究结果表明:无论在何种模式下,制造商批发价格与产品的网络贴合度成反比;固定位网络广告投资额和网络广告投资总额与产品的网络贴合度成正比,固定位网络广告投资额与溢出效应成反比;合作状态下的利润总额通常情况下较低;当产品的网络贴合度超过一定阈值范围时,采用战略联盟使得供应链成员利润最大化。     

基于期权合约的战备物资储备激励机制研究

针对通用战备物资依托企业合同储备问题,从合作博弈的角度出发,引入期权合约理论,构建期权合约下合同储备激励机制模型。分析影响各方博弈主体策略选择的因素,对不同策略下参与主体双方的利润期望进行比较分析,确立期权合约理论下合理的期权价格范围,寻求军地双赢策略。实例分析表明,提出的方法具有可行性和有效性。     

Decision evaluation process in end-of-life systems management

In manufacturing sectors, firms are paying an increasing attention to sustainability concept with regard to their end-of-life products in order to respect environmental norms and satisfy the consumer sensitivity. This practise allows creating value by reintroducing dismantling and recovering parts and/or materials of end-of-life products into manufacturing process, or into maintenance process. Thus, deconstruction processes are developed in order to examine all activities addressing the end of life (EOL) systems to ensure its disposal according to environmental constraints when seeking an economic optimum. In this context, one of the first tasks to perform is to repatriate the EOL systems at lowest cost considering geographical optimization of treatment centers. Considering this point, the present paper proposes an evaluation and optimization approach for the withdrawal location process in the field of aircraft dismantling. Given the multitude and heterogeneity of characteristics to be taken into account, we propose to consider dismantling site location problem as multi-criteria/multi-objectives decision making problem and solve it using a new AHP-BOCR approach based on qualitative and quantitative evaluations. A bipolar structuring framework is considered to distinguish positive and negative aspects in the elicitation/evaluation process to avoid compensation and satisficing game theory is used as suitable mathematical tool for recommendation process. An experimental study is carried out to show the usefulness of the framework.