Influencer-defaulter mutation-based optimization algorithms for predicting electricity prices

Efficient electricity price forecasting plays a significant role in our society. In this paper, a novel influencer-defaulter mutation (IDM) mutation operator has been proposed. The IDM operator has been combined with six well-known optimization algorithms to create mutated optimization algorithms whose performance has been tested on twenty-four standard benchmark functions. Further, the artificial neural network is integrated with mutated optimization algorithms to solve the electricity price prediction problem. The policymakers can identify appropriate variables based on the predicted prices to help future market planning. The statistical results prove the efficacy of the IDM operator on the recent optimization algorithms.     

非常规气藏储层改造体积评价方法研究

为精确描述非常规气藏压裂后的复杂流动特征及定量评价储层改造体积（SRV），利用自主研发的缝网重构算法“破裂树生长法”建立压后缝网模型，并以此为基础提出了使用拟稳态流动时特定的压力等值线来确定SRV范围的定量评价方法，最后以长宁201井区为例进行了矿场实例分析。该方法根据微地震监测点的位置，重构出微裂缝网的连通关系。在复杂微裂缝网的基础上建立离散裂缝地质模型并进行生产数值模拟，根据数值模拟结果的压力分布精确划定SRV的范围。利用该方法计算出长宁201井区的SRV体积为0.052 1 km3，以该缝网模型的数值模拟产量预测结果符合实际生产规律，方法实用性较好。     

Predictive environmental hydrogen embrittlement on fracture toughness of commercial ferritic steels with hydrogen-modified fracture strain model

In this work, a practical numerical model with few parameters was proposed for the prediction of environmental hydrogen embrittlement. The proposed method adopts hydrogen enhanced plasticity-based mechanism in a fracture strain model to describe hydrogen embrittlement. Fracture toughness degradation of three commercial steels SA372J70, AISI4130 and X80 in high pressure hydrogen environment were investigated. Firstly, governing equations for hydrogen distribution and material damage evolution was established. Hydrogen enhanced localized flow softening effect was coupled within fracture strain dependency on stress triaxiality. Then, the numerical implementation and identification process of model parameters was described. Model parameters of the investigated steels were determined based on experiment results from literatures. Finally, with the calibrated model, fracture toughness reduction of the steels was predicted in a wide range of hydrogen pressure. The prediction results were compared with experimental results. Reasonable accuracy was reached. The proposed method is an attempt to reach balance between physical accurate prediction and engineering practicality. It is promising to provide a simplified numerical tool for the design and fit for service evaluation of hydrogen storage vessels.     

Experimental study and model predictions on helium release in an enclosure with single or multiple vents

This paper presents experiments performed at Canadian Nuclear Laboratories (CNL) to examine the dispersion behaviour of helium in a polycarbonate enclosure that was representative of a residential parking garage. The purpose was to gain a better understanding of the effect of buoyancy- or wind-driven natural ventilation on hydrogen dispersion behaviour. Although hydrogen dispersion studies have been reported extensively in the literature, gaps still exist in predictive methods for hazard analysis. Helium, a simulant for hydrogen, was injected near the centre of the floor with a flow rate ranging from 5 to 75 standard litres per minute through an upward-facing nozzle, resulting in an injection Richardson number ranging between 10^?1 and 10². The location of the nozzle varied from the bottom of the enclosure to near the ceiling to examine the impact of the nozzle elevation on the development of a stratified layer in the upper region of the enclosure. When the injection nozzle was placed at a sufficiently low elevation, the vertical helium profile always consisted of a homogenous layer at the top overlaying a stratified layer at the bottom. To simulate outdoor environmental conditions, a fan was placed in front of each vent to examine the effect of opposing or assisting wind on the dispersion. The helium transients in the uniform layer predicted with analytical models were in good agreement with the measured transients for most tests. Model improvements are required for adequately predicting transients with primarily stratified profiles or strong opposing wind.     

Research and demonstration on hydrogen compatibility of pipelines: a review of current status and challenges

Hydrogen transportation by pipelines gradually becomes a critical engineering route in the worldwide adaptation of hydrogen as a form of clean energy. However, due to the hydrogen embrittlement effect, the compatibility of linepipe steels and associated welds with hydrogen is a major concern when designing hydrogen-carrying pipelines. When hydrogen enters the steels, their ductility, fracture resistance, and fatigue properties can be adversely altered. This paper reviews the status of several demonstration projects for natural gas-hydrogen blending and pure hydrogen transportation, the pipeline materials used and their operating parameters. This paper also compares the current standards of materials specifications for hydrogen pipeline systems from different parts of the world. The hydrogen compatibility and tolerance of varying grades of linepipe steels and the relevant testing methods for assessing the compatibility are then discussed, and the conservatism or the inadequacies of the test conditions of the current standards are pointed out for future improvement.     

Removing data and using metafounders alleviates biases for all traits in Lacaune dairy sheep predictions

Bias in dairy genetic evaluations, when it exists, has to be understood and properly addressed. The origin of biases is not always clear. We analyzed 40 yr of records from the Lacaune dairy sheep breeding program to evaluate the extent of bias, assess possible corrections, and emit hypotheses on its origin. The data set included 7 traits (milk yield, fat and protein contents, somatic cell score, teat angle, udder cleft, and udder depth) with records from 600,000 to 5 million depending on the trait, ～1,900,000 animals, and ～5,900 genotyped elite artificial insemination rams. For the ～8% animals with missing sire, we fit 25 unknown parent groups. We used the linear regression method to compare “partial” and “whole” predictions of young rams before and after progeny testing, with 7 cut-off points, and we obtained estimates of their bias, (over)dispersion, and accuracy in early proofs. We tried (1) several scenarios as follows: multiple or single trait, the “official” (routine) evaluation, which is a mixture of both single and multiple trait, and “deletion” of data before 1990; and (2) several models as follows: BLUP and single-step genomic (SSG)BLUP with fixed unknown parent groups or metafounders, where, for metafounders, their relationship matrix gamma was estimated using either a model for inbreeding trend, or base allele frequencies estimated by peeling. The estimate of gamma obtained by modeling the inbreeding trend resulted in an estimated increase of inbreeding, based on markers, faster than the pedigree-based one. The estimated genetic trends were similar for most models and scenarios across all traits, but were shrunken when gamma was estimated by peeling. This was due to shrinking of the estimates of metafounders in the latter case. Across scenarios, all traits showed bias, generally as an overestimate of genetic trend for milk yield and an underestimate for the other traits. As for the slope, it showed overdispersion of estimated breeding values for all traits. Using multiple-trait models slightly reduced the overestimate of genetic trend and the overdispersion, as did including genomic information (i.e., SSGBLUP) when the gamma matrix was estimated by the model for inbreeding trend. However, only deletion of historical data before 1990 resulted in elimination of both kind of biases. The SSGBLUP resulted in more accurate early proofs than BLUP for all traits. We considered that a snowball effect of small errors in each genetic evaluation, combined with selection, may have resulted in biased evaluations. Improving statistical methods reduced some bias but not all, and a simple solution for this data set was to remove historical records.     

Liquefaction behavior of fiber-reinforced calcareous sands in unidirectional and multidirectional simple shear tests

A study on the liquefaction resistance of calcareous sands reinforced with polypropylene fibers was reported. Stress-controlled cyclic simple shear tests were conducted on specimens prepared at a relative density of 50%, with and without fiber reinforcements. The liquefaction behavior was investigated by considering the effects of fiber contents ranging from 0% to 1%, fiber lengths varying from 3 mm to 12 mm and loading patterns. The results indicated that increasing fiber content and fiber length resulted in a decrease in the deformation, a reduction in pore pressure accumulation rate, and improved the liquefaction resistance of calcareous sands. Additionally, the risk of soil liquefaction could be significantly reduced when the fiber content was greater than 0.8%. The multidirectional loading had a considerable effect in reducing the liquefaction resistance compared to unidirectional loading. Further, the stiffness degradation of calcareous sands decreased with increasing fiber content and fiber length. The pore pressure generated in the cyclic tests was analyzed and was found to be affected by fiber content. A pore pressure prediction model was proposed to obtain the pore pressure characteristics of fiber-reinforced calcareous sands under various fiber content conditions.     

异种铁素体耐热钢接头界面组织及其影响

综述了铁素体与铁素体异种金属焊缝（dissimilar metal welds，DMWs）接头界面组织及其影响。结果表明，在焊后热处理或运行温度下的铁素体钢DMWs接头的不均匀界面组织中，通常会形成脱碳层和增碳层。在铁素体钢DMWs焊接接头界面组织影响因素中，焊缝金属的化学成分有重要影响；焊后热处理规范（温度和时间）、工作温度下运行时间的影响较为突出；焊接工艺参数的影响亦不可忽略。异种钢接头界面处近缝区裂纹的产生，以及接头的蠕变强度随Larson Miller 参数增大而下降等不利影响，均为异种钢界面碳迁移行为所导致。焊缝成分控制法是接头界面组织控制或改善的必要条件，而脱碳层部位转移法能有效防止裂纹发生，亦是接头安全运行的重要工艺措施之一。     

A novel multi-objective optimization method: Input values effect on responses (IVER)

In this study, a novel multi-objective optimization method based on the best effect of unique input (independent variable) values on responses (dependent variables) was proposed. The proposed method was compared with optimization using Derringer & Suich function that is still the most used. The comparison was made using the response values measured in real experiments and available in the literature. The advantages of the proposed method such as not needing the polynomial model aiming to predict the response values, no parameter selection problem, being able to offer optimum range instead of single optimum value, being suitable for use with existing experimental designs and being simple and interpretable were demonstrated as a result of comparison. It was also suggested how the proposed method will be effective according to experimental designs, and application for the users' application was presented.     

爆炸载荷下空孔缺陷与爆生裂纹扩展行为研究

空孔在岩石巷道直眼掏槽爆破中具有重要作用,为研究空孔及其缺陷在爆炸荷载作用下的扩展行为和作用机理,以PMMA代替岩石材料,利用预制裂纹代替空孔缺陷,借助动态焦散线系统和理论分析为手段,研究不同间距下空孔、空孔处预制裂纹、爆生裂纹动态扩展规律及机理,分析不同"径距比"与掏槽效果的关系。研究结果表明:在装药量一定的情况下,随着炮孔与空孔距离的变化,爆生裂纹扩展距离呈现递增而预制裂纹扩展距离呈现递减的趋势,但都存在极值;当炮孔与空孔距离较小时,爆生裂纹和预制裂纹扩展及相互作用最复杂,爆生裂纹扩展经历由压缩应力波为主,表现为直线的前期扩展;由空孔处发射应力波和压缩应力波共同作用下,爆生裂纹偏离炮孔与空孔连心线的中期扩展,以及由空孔应力集中区作用使爆生裂纹向空孔方向偏移的后期阶段;预制裂纹扩展经历由空孔处应力集中作用下,表现为直线的前期扩展,以及由爆生裂纹处反射拉伸波作用使其向爆生裂纹发展的后期阶段;当炮孔与空孔距离较大时,反射应力波及应力集中效应对爆生裂纹和预制裂纹扩展在减弱,爆生裂纹与预制裂纹扩展行为仅有前期直线扩展阶段。"径距比"的大小对爆破效果影响较大,直眼掏槽爆破应以最优"径距比"作为掏槽爆破参数设计的依据。