基于聚类的数据加权优化在犯罪预测中的应用

近年来，我国传统暴力犯罪与成年人犯罪呈下降态势，但是，犯罪案由层出不穷。为有效提升公安实践工作中犯罪预测能力，打击各类违法犯罪事件,本文针对犯罪数据，提出一种新型犯罪预测模型。利用密度聚类分析方法将犯罪数据分类，然后进行数据降维提取关键属性生成特征数据，继而对特征数据进行加权优化并采用机器学习的方式对特征数据进行学习，从而预测犯罪案由。实验结果表明，与传统方法相比，本文方法具有更好的预测效果，为公安实践工作中类似案件的侦破和预防，提供新的路径支撑。     

Quantitative Analysis of Crime Incidents in Chicago Using Data Analytics Techniques

In this paper we aim to identify certain social factors that influence, and thus can be used to predict, the occurrence of crimes. The factors under consideration for this analytic are social demographics such as age, sex, poverty, etc., train ridership, traffic density and the number of business licenses per community area in Chicago, IL. A factor will be considered pertinent if there is high correlation between it and the number of crimes of a particular type in that community area.     

论以欺诈方式出售已抵押房屋的刑法适用

房地产开发商隐瞒房屋已经抵押的事实、采取欺诈方式销售房屋的行为,侵犯了房屋买受人的合法权益,扰乱了诚实信用的市场秩序.把这种行为引入到刑法的调整范围,通过追究犯罪人的刑事责任,可以增加违法成本,规范开发商以欺诈手段销售已抵押房屋的行为.该种行为符合合同诈骗罪的构成要件,有必要在司法解释中予以明确.     

合理的景观设计抵制城市死角达到犯罪预防——以上海市徐家汇某高架公园环境分析为例

城市化进程不仅改变了传统土地组织结构与社会文化，也导致了日益严重的都市犯罪问题．特别是有些大城市随着城市发展出现了“城市死角”。该文主要探讨以合理的设计手法来倡导符合具体都市功能的环境设计，达到预防犯罪的目的，抵制城市死角。研究选取上海市典型的高架桥底舟固为模型，找出较为合理的设计通用手法来处理高架公园问题，旨在尽可能地使用城市集约空间，消除城市“死角”现象，     

The Impact of Single-family Mortgage Foreclosures on Neighborhood Crime

Foreclosures of single-family mortgages have increased dramatically in many parts of the US in recent years. Much of this has been tied to the rise of higher-risk subprime mortgage lending. Debates concerning mortgage regulation, as well as around other residential finance policies and practices, hinge critically on the social as well as personal costs of loan default and foreclosure. This paper examines the impact of foreclosures of single-family mortgages on levels of violent and property crime at the neighborhood level. Using data on foreclosures, neighborhood characteristics, and crime, the study found that higher foreclosure levels do contribute to higher levels of violent crime. The results for property crime are not statistically significant. A standard deviation increase in the foreclosure rate (about 2.8 foreclosures for every 100 owner-occupied properties in one year) corresponds to an increase in neighborhood violent crime of approximately 6.7 per cent. The policy implications of these findings are discussed.     

中国食品安全犯罪的刑事政策研究

随着工业化进程的加深,现代社会的食品安全威胁具有常态化和严重化的特点,从而对食品安全犯罪的刑事政策提出了新的要求。就当前中国《刑法》所体现的刑事政策来看,其存在定罪范围过于狭窄、量刑偏轻、刑事规制作用过小等问题,有必要通过扩大刑法调整范围,量刑上以严为主,刑事规制和行政规制密切配合等刑事政策的转变,以更好地适应当前食品安全保证的新形势。     

Bars on blocks: A cellular automata model of crime and liquor licensed establishment density

Criminologists have extensively researched the problems generated by licensed establishments. Violent offending and disorderly behavior resulting from pubs, taverns, dance clubs and bars are of particular interest to this field of study. The relative density of these liquor establishments has been found to be associated with the level of violence and disorder in surrounding areas. A complex systems approach can be used to further understand the dynamic interplay between licensed establishments, violent offending and disorder, and urban planning decisions. The model presented here utilizes cellular automata as the mathematical framework to view the varying impact of liquor licensing density on crime. This study uses a sample of liquor establishments and crime data from the City of Vancouver in British Columbia. The cellular automata model incorporates transition rules which govern the change of city blocks from low-risk blocks to high-risk blocks. The results represented by a 50 × 50 cellular grid show that high-risk blocks multiply when liquor licenses are grouped. Two scenarios are presented to contrast the impact of grouping high-risk blocks which contain more liquor establishments and dispersing such blocks. A third scenario demonstrates how increasing the positive influence in a grouped scenario stops high-risk blocks from taking over the entire grid. Future iterations of this model will incorporate census data, public transportation data, land use data and entertainment districts from other cities to further analyze the effect of licensed establishments on the distribution of crime.     

北京市朝阳区绿地环境特征与犯罪率关系研究

现有犯罪学研究成果表明,公共绿地空间与城市犯罪事件的发生存在紧密联系。本研究以实际数据为基础,现状场地调研为依据,CPTED理论为指导,探究北京市朝阳区32个单元的犯罪率与绿化覆盖率之间的关系。其次,随机抽取朝阳区12个具有代表性的绿地进行深入分析,根据空间环境特征将其归纳为4个具有典型特征的绿地形态,并由其易滋生犯罪的环境特征提出规划设计层面的改进方案,以期为城市空间环境规划设计的犯罪预防提供合理的建议。     

One strike,you're out: the residue of state deregulatory experiments and neoliberal era criminals in a faded Texas boomtown

Both the savings and loans (S&L) crisis of the late 1980s and the more recent subprime mortgage crisis left physical residues in the built landscape of American cities. With the crises, communities that had been the sites of speculative growth became sites of vacant properties, foreclosed properties, unimproved subdivisions, and razed structures. This paper considers the legacy of one such episode of urban development preceding the S&L crisis along Interstate 30 Garland, Texas, where criminals took advantage of deregulation and lax local planning policies to hastily construct a condominium glut. The central argument of the paper is that regional policies fostering outward growth coupled with federal policies stimulating extreme boom and bust cycles have created brief periods in which American Sunbelt communities experience growth pressures, which harnessed incorrectly have created the danger of a ‘one strike, you're out’ scenario: a single chance to succeed or fail.     

手机淫秽色情信息治理分析与应对策略

随着网络传播工具的发展加剧了淫秽色情信息的泛滥,青少年性教育阙如、网络信息资源良莠不齐以及网络法制责任意识淡薄是淫秽色情信息大量蔓延的深度原因.在强化淫秽色情信息犯罪的综合治理的同时,运营商应该尽到自身的社会责任,实现淫秽色情信息犯罪的有效惩防.