A bidding decision index for construction contractors

Results from applying the model on a sample of contractors, the majority of whom were international and operating in Egypt, reinforces the credibility of the developed methodology, claim the authors.     

Data mining of resilience indicators

In recent years, the Asia-Pacific region has experienced several financial setbacks, including speculative attacks in 1998 and the SARS outbreak in 2003. Financial stresses of this nature are unanticipated, and not all of the dangers can be predicted by the examination of market information and macroeconomic indicators. The Early Warning System (EWS) that has been adopted by the International Monetary Fund may not be able to predict future financial crises for all possible scenarios, because shocks come in many different forms. To supplement the EWS, this paper proposes a data mining framework to measure the resilience of an economy. The resilience framework does not predict a crisis, but rather assesses the current state of health of an economy and its ability to withstand a financial shock should one occur. The framework is based on a feedback system consisting of two stages. The first stage assigns a resilience score to each economy based on a fuzzy logic scoring scheme that is built on the ambiguous reasoning of experts. The second stage uses the classification tree approach to estimate thresholds for each economic indicator, and examines the quality of the fuzzy score. The result from the second stage is then passed back to the first stage as feedback. The final result is obtained when the feedback system reaches its equilibrium state. The proposed resilience framework is applied to the external-sector and the public-sector economies of several countries to illustrate its applicability.     

A decision-making approach to the operation of flexible manufacturing systems

This paper introduces a generic decision-making framework for assigning resources of a manufacturing system to production tasks. Resources are broadly defined production units, such as machines, human operators, or material handling vehicles; and tasks are activities performed by resources. In the specific context of FMS, resources correspond to individual machines; tasks correspond to operations to be performed on parts. The framework assumes a hierarchical structure of the system and calls for the execution of four consecutive steps to make a decision for the assignment of a resource to a task. These steps are 1) establishment of decision-making criteria, 2) formation of alternative assignments, 3) estimation of the consequences of the assignments, and 4) selection of the best alternative assignment. This framework has been applied to an existing FMS as an operational policy that decides what task will be executed on which resource of this FMS. Simulation runs provide some initial results of the application of this policy. It is shown that the policy provides flexibility in terms of system performance and computational effort.     

An expert decision support system for network routing: a case study

The paper presents a case study of the development of an expert decision support system which uses simple heuristic methods for fast determination of routes for simultaneous signals in a transmission network of limited capacity. It illustrates how heuristic solutions can be embodied in a model-based DSS and how the standard decision support literature, although intuitively appealing, provides little practical assistance in system construction or classification     

A method for the efficient prioritization of infrastructure renewal projects

The infrastructure renewal program at MIT consists of a large number of projects with an estimated budget that could approach $1 billion. Infrastructure renewal at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) is the process of evaluating and investing in the maintenance of facility systems and basic structure to preserve existing campus buildings. The selection and prioritization of projects must be addressed with a systematic method for the optimal allocation of funds and other resources. This paper presents a case study of a prioritization method utilizing multi-attribute utility theory. This method was developed at MIT's Department of Nuclear Engineering and was deployed by the Department of Facilities after appropriate modifications were implemented to address the idiosyncrasies of infrastructure renewal projects and the competing criteria and constraints that influence the judgment of the decision-makers. Such criteria include minimization of risk, optimization of economic impact, and coordination with academic policies, programs, and operations of the Institute. A brief overview of the method is presented, as well as the results of its application to the prioritization of infrastructure renewal projects. Results of workshops held at MIT with the participation of stakeholders demonstrate the feasibility of the prioritization method and the usefulness of this approach.     

基于模糊决策的风力发电产业评价研究

根据风力发电技术产业的特点,构建改进层次分析与模糊一致矩阵相结合的方案决策数学模型,该模型既可以减少确定判断矩阵的盲目性,又可以避开评价体系中各等级间的隶属度确定问题,使评价结果更加可靠,适合于信息尚不完整、受主观因素影响较强的评价。实例验证了这一模型的合理性、可行性和有效性,具有实用价值。     

模糊综合评判理论在研究性学习系统中的研究及应用

介绍了工程数学中的模糊综合评判理论以及相应树型向量推理算法,并将模糊综合推理机制运用到研究性学习系统中进行研究型应用。该系统中运用模糊综合评判对学习效果进行合理评判,得出综合成绩,以其作为改进研究性学习模式的参考评证,从而使研究性学习过程良性发展。     

A mathematical model for vehicle routing problem under endogenous uncertainty

In this study, a multistage stochastic programming (SP) model is presented for a variant of single-vehicle routing problem with stochastic demands from a dynamic viewpoint. It is assumed that the actual demand of a customer becomes known only when the customer is visited. This problem falls into the category of SP with endogenous uncertainty and hence, the scenario tree is decision-dependent. Therefore, nonanticipativity of decisions is ensured by conditional constraints making up a large portion of total constraints. Thus, a novel approach is proposed that considerably reduces the problem size without any effect on the solution space. Computational results on some test problems are reported.     

Defining syntax-directed translations by tree bimorphisms

We introduce a class of tree bimorphisms that define exactly the translations performed by syntax-directed translation schemata. We also show that these “quasi-alphabetic” tree bimorphisms preserve recognizability, and that their class is closed under composition and inverses.