Robust optimal operation of continuous catalytic reforming process under feedstock uncertainty

The continuous catalytic regenerative (CCR) reforming process is one of the most significant sources of hydrogen production in the petroleum refining process. However, the fluctuations in feedstock composition and flow rate could significantly affect both product distribution and energy consumption. In this study, a robust deviation criterion based multi-objective optimization approach is proposed to perform the optimal operation of CCR reformer under feedstock uncertainty, with simultaneous maximization of product yields and minimization of energy consumption. Minimax approach is adopted to handle these uncertain objectives, and the Latin hypercube sampling method is then used to calculate these robust deviation criteria. Multi-objective surrogate-based optimization methods are next introduced to effectively solve the robust operational problem with high computational cost. The level diagram method is finally utilized to assist in multi-criteria decision-making. Two robust operational optimization problems with different objectives are solved to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method for robust optimal operation of the CCR reforming process under feedstock uncertainty.     

Progressive failure analysis of notched composite plate by utilizing macro mechanics approach

In this study, gradual and sudden reduction methods were combined to simulate a progressive failure in notched composite plates using a macro mechanics approach. Using the presented method, a progressive failure is simulated based on a linear softening law prior to a catastrophic failure, and thereafter, sudden reduction methods are employed for modeling a progressive failure. This combination method significantly reduces the computational cost and is also capable of simultaneously predicting the first and last ply failures (LPFs) in composite plates. The proposed method is intended to predict the first ply failure (FPF), LPF, and dominant failure modes of carbon/epoxy and glass/epoxy notched composite plates. In addition, the effects of mechanical properties and different stacking sequences on the propagation of damage in notched composite plates were studied. The results of the presented method were compared with experimental data previously reported in the literature. By comparing the numerical and experimental data, it is revealed that the proposed method can accurately simulate the failure propagation in notched composite plates at a low computational cost.     

Phase-change regulation criterion based on size-dependent lattice distortion rate and born theory for VO2 nanomaterials

Vanadium dioxide (VO₂) is a promising thermally induced phase transition material because of the abrupt changes in electrical and optical properties. However, the high phase transition temperature of VO₂ and its unspecified modulation relationship need to be resolved urgently. Herein, we proposed a simple and precise regulation criterion for VO₂ materials based on size-dependent lattice distortion rate and Born theory. The results indicated that the application of a tensile stress changed the elastic properties of the VO₂, which promoted VO₂ phase transition, and regulated the phase transition temperature. Moreover, the specific modulation relationship between the stress and phase transition temperature of VO₂ was confirmed experimentally. These results show that our criterion provides theoretical guidance to regulate VO₂ thermally induced phase transition materials.     

微型土压平衡盾构机液压系统故障分析

以微型土压平衡(Earth Pressure Balance,EPB)盾构机推进液压系统作为研究对象,介绍了推进系统的工作原理,对混入空气后的油液黏度和有效体积弹性模量进行分析,建立了推进系统数学模型,并对混入不同百分比空气的系统进行仿真运算,得到了液压缸位移响应和速度响应随系统含气量变化的关系。研究表明:随着液压系统空气含量的增加,液压缸位移响应发生迟滞,速度响应变慢,液压缸在运动时产生振动。结合各液压元件工作原理,依次对实际盾构机推进系统元件进行排气,最终排除了液压系统中混入的空气,为实现盾构机平稳推进提供了理论依据。     

基于历史数据聚类的火电机组工况划分

针对调峰背景下火电机组非稳态工况增多,以及常见运行工况偏离设计工况等问题,提出了基于历史运行数据聚类的工况划分模型。首先,考虑到运行数据中非稳态工况与稳态工况并存的情况,以功率作为特征变量,提出基于功率差值期望区间估计的稳态判别算法,筛选出历史数据中的非稳态工况;其次,由于稳态工况下外部边界条件变量的分布差异性,提出改进的多步K-均值聚类算法进行稳态工况的划分,并利用silhouette评价准则确定每步条件下的最佳聚类数;最后,采用某实际发电用重型燃气轮机的历史运行数据进行模型验证。通过与传统K-均值聚类算法比较,所提出的模型能够有效解决工况分类数目较少以及样本分布不均的问题。     

Bayesian data analysis to quantify the uncertainty of intact rock strength

One of the main difficulties in the geotechnical design process lies in dealing with uncertainty. Uncertainty is associated with natural variation of properties, and the imprecision and unpredictability caused by insufficient information on parameters or models. Probabilistic methods are normally used to quantify uncertainty. However, the frequentist approach commonly used for this purpose has some drawbacks.First, it lacks a formal framework for incorporating knowledge not represented by data. Second, it has limitations in providing a proper measure of the confidence of parameters inferred from data. The Bayesian approach offers a better framework for treating uncertainty in geotechnical design. The advantages of the Bayesian approach for uncertainty quantification are highlighted in this paper with the Bayesian regression analysis of laboratory test data to infer the intact rock strength parameters σ_(ci) and m_i used in the Hoek-Brown strength criterion. Two case examples are used to illustrate different aspects of the Bayesian methodology and to contrast the approach with a frequentist approach represented by the nonlinear least squares(NLLS) method. The paper discusses the use of a Student's t-distribution versus a normal distribution to handle outliers, the consideration of absolute versus relative residuals, and the comparison of quality of fitting results based on standard errors and Bayes factors. Uncertainty quantification with confidence and prediction intervals of the frequentist approach is compared with that based on scatter plots and bands of fitted envelopes of the Bayesian approach. Finally, the Bayesian method is extended to consider two improvements of the fitting analysis. The first is the case in which the Hoek-Brown parameter, a, is treated as a variable to improve the fitting in the triaxial region. The second is the incorporation of the uncertainty in the estimation of the direct tensile strength from Brazilian test results within the overall evaluation of the intact rock strength.     

超临界二氧化碳干气密封稳态性能研究

以超临界二氧化碳(S-CO_2)干气密封为研究对象,建立变黏度变密度雷诺方程,通过构建物性数据库的方式对黏度及密度进行处理,并采用有限差分法对控制方程进行求解,得到端面压力分布,并计算开启力、泄漏量、摩擦扭矩和气膜刚度等稳态性能参数。结果表明:随着压力、转速的增大,开启力、泄漏量、摩擦扭矩、气膜刚度等参数均增大;随着槽坝比和槽深的增加,开启力、泄漏量和气膜刚度均增大,摩擦扭矩减小;随着槽数的增加,各稳态性能参数均减小;将槽坝比控制在0.5～1的范围内,有助于提高密封稳定性。     

Hand hygiene and surface cleaning should be paired for prevention of fomite transmission

Touching contaminated surfaces might lead to the spread of pathogens, that is, the fomite transmission route. Although hand- and surface-hygiene practices are potentially important non-pharmaceutical interventions for the fomite route, the two interventions have been mostly studied separately in the literature. In this study, we develop a new conceptual model based on the law of mass action, analyze the temporal diffusion of contaminated surfaces and hands, and verify the model with simulations in an assumed norovirus outbreak in a buffet restaurant. A quantitative hygiene criterion is developed for the required frequency of surface disinfection and hand hygiene to control the fomite transmission in indoor environments. To eliminate surface contaminations, the product of pathogen-removal rates (including hygiene and natural death) on hands and surfaces must be no smaller than that of the human hand and surface contact frequency (ie, the net removal product must be non-negative). When the net removal product is negative, the number of contaminated surfaces and hands would show a logistic growth trend and finally approach the equilibrium. Our approach sheds light into how to optimize the combined use of hand hygiene and environmental decontamination for the best effectiveness under different settings.     

Systematic convergence of nonlinear stochastic estimators on the Special Orthogonal Group SO(3)

This paper introduces two novel nonlinear stochastic attitude estimators developed on the Special Orthogonal Group with the tracking error of the normalized Euclidean distance meeting predefined transient and steady‐state characteristics. The tracking error is confined to initially start within a predetermined large set such that the transient performance is guaranteed to obey dynamically reducing boundaries and decrease smoothly and asymptotically to the origin in probability from almost any initial condition. The proposed estimators produce accurate attitude estimates with remarkable convergence properties using measurements obtained from low‐cost inertial measurement units. The estimators proposed in continuous form are complemented by their discrete versions for the implementation purposes. The simulation results illustrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed estimators against uncertain measurements and large initialization error, whether in continuous or discrete form.