An improved iterative stochastic multi-objective acceptability analysis method for robust alternative selection in new product development

Alternative selection in new product development (NPD) is a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem. It usually starts with incomplete, imprecise or even partially missing information. Currently, most existing methods in dealing with this problem cannot work well if required information is incomplete or missing. It is acknowledged that stochastic multi-objective acceptability analysis (SMAA) can be applied to address MCDM problem with incomplete preference information and uncertain criteria measurements. In SMAA, alternatives are evaluated based on SMAA measurements (acceptability index, central weight vector and confidence factor). The discriminability of SMAA for the optimum alternative heavily depends on differences of SMAA measurements among different alternatives. Usually, a large number of alternatives and high level of uncertainty are involved in alternative selection in NPD. In this situation, the differences among SMAA measurements are not obvious, and therefore SMAA cannot deal with such problem very well. To this end, this paper proposes an improved SMAA method called Iterative-SMAA (I-SMAA) for alternative selection in NPD. In the I-SMAA, an iterative multi-step decision-making process is suggested to improve differences of SMAA measurements among different alternatives, and thus assist decision makers (DMs) to positively discern from the most preferred alternative. To enhance the decision-making efficiency, sensitive criteria are acquired in each iteration by ranking sensitivity analysis. DMs are guided to provide partial preference information and give more accurate criteria measurements for sensitive criteria rather than all criteria. Eventually, to verify the proposed method, a numerical example of the existing literature is solved with the method, and the results are compared. And then, a practical example of a preparation equipment for coal samples is further employed to verify the practicability of the proposed I-SMAA.     

Multicriteria decision-making using Archimedean aggregation operators in Pythagorean hesitant fuzzy environment

In multicriteria decision-making (MCDM), the existing aggregation operators are mostly based on algebraic t-conorm and t-norm. But, Archimedean t-conorms and t-norms are the generalized forms of t-conorms and t-norms which include algebraic, Einstein, Hamacher, Frank, and other types of t-conorms and t-norms. From that view point, in this paper the concepts of Archimedean t-conorm and t-norm are introduced to aggregate Pythagorean hesitant fuzzy information. Some new operational laws for Pythagorean hesitant fuzzy numbers based on Archimedean t-conorm and t-norm have been proposed. Using those operational laws, Archimedean t-conorm and t-norm-based Pythagorean hesitant fuzzy weighted averaging operator and weighted geometric operator are developed. Some of their desirable properties have also been investigated. Afterwards, these operators are applied to solve MCDM problems in Pythagorean hesitant fuzzy environment. The developed Archimedean aggregation operators are also applicable in Pythagorean fuzzy contexts also. To demonstrate the validity, practicality, and effectiveness of the proposed method, a practical problem is considered, solved, and compared with other existing method.     

Matching of technological forecasting technique to a technology using fuzzy multi-attribute decision-making methods: Case study from the aerospace industry

Given the accelerating pace of technological advances and environmental changes, technology-based companies are required to predict and understand future events in their environments. However, there is a wide range of forecasting methods creating confusion on which method to use. This paper demonstrates the selection of an appropriate technique for technology forecasting in the Iran Aviation Industries Organization (IAIO). To this end, a review of the literature was first reviewed to extract the proper criteria for selecting a forecasting method. Next, the SWARA and fuzzy MUTLIMOORA methods were used to evaluate and prioritize a total of twelve forecasting methods proposed for the case study. The results suggested that the Delphi method for technology forecasting in the IAIO. Scenario writing and the relevance tree are the next proper alternatives that can be used.     

Looking out to look in: inspiration from social sciences for construction management research

In reaction to the recent call for critical debate in the field of construction management research, I argue that we should embrace the richness of adjacent fields of study in order to dynamically develop our own and face the plethora of contemporary societal challenges that exist in our industry. I introduce the concepts of other-than-rational thinking in decision-making and multiplicity in management responses as examples of inspirational sources from social sciences that would contribute to truly understanding the driving forces of construction management processes. I connect these concepts to contemporary studies in construction management and share my experiences with several positive collaborative approaches in conducting construction management research.     

A large group linguistic Z-DEMATEL approach for identifying key performance indicators in hospital performance management

In hospital management, performance measurement is of vital importance for improving healthcare service quality. The performance of a healthcare organization is often influenced by numerous indicators, and it is unrealistic to manage them all due to the restriction of resources. In addition, the performance measurement for improvement relates to the benefits of many departments, and it is necessary for large number of experts with different backgrounds to participate in the evaluation process of healthcare indicators. In response, this study develops a large group evaluation approach using linguistic Z-numbers and decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) to determine key performance indicators (KPIs) for hospital management. For this approach, the complex and uncertain interrelation evaluations among indicators are given by experts using linguistic Z-numbers. An extended DEMATEL method is proposed to determine KPIs based on the cause and effect relationships of performance indicators. Finally, a case study in a rehabilitation hospital is presented to illustrate the effectiveness and usefulness of the proposed large group linguistic Z-DEMATEL approach. The results indicate that incidents/errors, accidents/adverse events, nosocomial infection, nursing technology pass rate, and length of stay are KPIs for the given application.     

A new DEA common-weight multi-criteria decision-making approach for technology selection

This paper addresses an advanced manufacturing technology selection problem by proposing a new common-weight multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach in the evaluation framework of data envelopment analysis (DEA). We improve existing technology selection models by giving a new mathematical formulation to simplify the calculation process and to ensure its use in more general situations with multiple inputs and multiple outputs. Further, an algorithm is provided to solve the proposed model based on mixed-integer linear programming and dichotomy. Compared with previous approaches for technology selection, our approach brings new contributions. First, it guarantees that only one decision-making unit (DMU) (referring to a technology) can be evaluated as efficient and selected as the best performer while maximising the minimum efficiency among all the DMUs. Second, the number of mixed-integer linear programs to solve is independent of the number of candidates. In addition, it guarantees the uniqueness of the final optimal set of common weights. Two benchmark instances are used to compare the proposed approach with existing ones. A computational experiment with randomly generated instances is further proceeded to show that the proposed approach is more suitable for situations with large datasets.     

Emergence of collective changes in travel direction of starling flocks from individual birds' fluctuations

One of the most impressive features of moving animal groups is their ability to perform sudden coherent changes in travel direction. While this collective decision can be a response to an external alarm cue, directional switching can also emerge from the intrinsic fluctuations in individual behaviour. However, the cause and the mechanism by which such collective changes of direction occur are not fully understood yet. Here, we present an experimental study of spontaneous collective turns in natural flocks of starlings. We employ a recently developed tracking algorithm to reconstruct three-dimensional trajectories of each individual bird in the flock for the whole duration of a turning event. Our approach enables us to analyse changes in the individual behaviour of every group member and reveal the emergent dynamics of turning. We show that spontaneous turns start from individuals located at the elongated tips of the flocks, and then propagate through the group. We find that birds on the tips deviate from the mean direction of motion much more frequently than other individuals, indicating that persistent localized fluctuations are the crucial ingredient for triggering a collective directional change. Finally, we quantitatively verify that birds follow equal-radius paths during turning, the effects of which are a change of the flock''s orientation and a redistribution of individual locations in the group.