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高比例新能源及多源耦合是电力系统发展的重要特征,这也为系统稳定经济运行提出了新挑战。该文以园区型多能系统为对象,研究了分布式多元随机动态场景分析,从多时空角度有效量化不确定因素给系统造成的影响,可为系统灵活重构、多维度协同运行与决策提供有力模型与场景支撑。首先由预测误差驱动拟合多元功率预测误差概率分布,全面反映随机功率出力信息,提高模型泛化性;以时序相关范围参数为数据驱动关联变量,高效动态控制波动强度;最终场景生成利用逆变换映射思想保证置信度。然后针对典型场景提取,提出一种综合递归聚类思想的多段嵌套削减算法,结合改进Wasserstein距离指标,兼具准确、时效、稳定方面的优势。最后由对比实验论证该方法的前沿有效性。 相似文献
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多堆厂址一级概率安全评价(PSA)研究中,机组数目的增加使得建模工作量剧增,给整个核电厂的风险评估带来困难。结合已有基础,本文研究了多堆厂址始发事件分析的筛选方法,提出利用堆芯损伤频率(CDF)上下限值评估方法,分析厂址内不同机组数对厂址CDF的影响。结果表明,双机组厂址适合优先进行具体分析。针对双机组核电站,对多堆厂址内各始发事件进行筛选。结果表明,丧失厂外电、丧失热阱等事件适合建模分析,并对其他筛选结果给出后续分析建议,为多堆厂址一级PSA后续事故序列建模工作提供了重要基础。 相似文献
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共同购买网络的推荐系统应用越加广泛,仅基于网络内生结构变量研究其共同购买链接的经济意义已有局限,故加入网络口碑这一外生变量,进行更全面的分析。采用了社会网络方法中指数随机图模型进行建模,主要围绕产品销售量、产品入度、差评率和评论数4个方面因素,探究其对共同购买网络中共同购买链接形成的影响。结果显示,销售量、产品入度和评论数对共同购买链接形成的影响呈正比关系,而差评率则会显著地降低产品共同购买的几率。该指数随机图构建出的共同购买网络为在线电商平台管理网络口碑和推荐系统优化设计提供有益参考。 相似文献
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文章首先总结了电力企业信息管理系统的现状,提出了多源信息管理系统融合集成的邦联、子集和完全融合3种方式,分析了3种方式的优缺点,以建设企业"互联网搜索"型数字引擎为目标,提出了融合基于本体的图数据库建模,多维关联与路径因果分析,和人机共生互动可视化决策于一体的企业信息管理系统技术发展趋势;在系统分析目前正在快速发展的图数据库技术与传统关系数据库之间的本质区别基础上,总结原创的电力图计算平台技术的特点;在此基础上讨论"电网一张图"在建设能源互联网时空信息管理平台数据关联索引图中的核心作用,提出了支持能源互联网建设的"电网一张图"时空信息管理系统的技术架构与特点,最后总结"电网一张图"时空信息管理系统在提高电网安全运行水平、提升客户服务水平、增强清洁能源消纳水平、改善经营绩效水平、以及为综合能源服务和建设能源生态等提供数据服务方面的广阔应用场景。 相似文献
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For more than a decade there has been growing interest in the use of Coriolis mass flow metering applied to two-phase (gas/liquid) and multiphase (oil/water/gas) conditions. It is well-established that the mass flow and density measurements generated from multiphase flows are subject to large errors, and a variety of physical models and correction techniques have been proposed to explain and/or to compensate for these errors. One difficulty is the absence of a common basis for comparing correction techniques, because different flowtube designs and configurations, as well as liquid and gas properties, may result in quite different error curves. Furthermore, some researchers with interests in the modelling aspects of the field may not have suitable multiphase laboratory facilities to generate their own data sets. This paper offers a small data set that may be used by researchers as a benchmark i.e. a common data set for comparing correction techniques. The data set was collected at the UK National Flow Laboratory TUV-NEL, using air and a viscous oil, and provides experimental points over a wide flow range (8:1 turndown) and with Gas Volume Fraction (GVF) values up to 60%. As a first investigation using the benchmark data set, we consider how data sparsity (i.e. the flow rate and GVF spacing in the experimental grid) affects the accuracy of a correction model. A range of neural network models are evaluated, based on different subsets of the benchmark data set. The data set and some exemplary code are provided with the paper. Additional data sets are available on a web site created to support this initiative. 相似文献
7.
Abd Essalam Badoud Farid Merahi Belkacem Ould Bouamama Saad Mekhilef 《International Journal of Hydrogen Energy》2021,46(47):24011-24027
This work presents a complete bond graph modeling of a hybrid photovoltaic-fuel cell-electrolyzer-battery system. These are multi-physics models that will take into account the influence of temperature on the electrochemical parameters. A bond graph modeling of the electrical dynamics of each source will be introduced. The bond graph models were developed to highlight the multi-physics aspect describing the interaction between hydraulic, thermal, electrochemical, thermodynamic, and electrical fields. This will involve using the most generic modeling approach possible for managing the energy flows of the system while taking into account the viability of the system. Another point treated in this work is to propose. In this work, a new strategy for the power flow management of the studied system has been proposed. This strategy aims to improve the overall efficiency of the studied system by optimizing the decisions made when starting and stopping the fuel cell and the electrolyzer. It was verified that the simulation results of the proposed system, when compared to simulation results presented in the literature, that the hydrogen demand is increased by an average of 8%. The developed management algorithm allows reducing the fuel cell degradation by 87% and the electrolyzer degradation by 65%. As for the operating time of the electrolyzer, an increment of 65% was achieved, thus improving the quality of the produced hydrogen. The Fuel Cell's running time has been decreased by 59%. With the ambition to validate the models proposed and the associated commands, the development of this study gave rise to the creation of an experimental platform. Using this high-performance experimental platform, experimental tests were carried out and the results obtained are compared with those obtained by simulation under the same metrological conditions. 相似文献
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引入句法依存信息到原方面术语,提出一种新的方面术语表示方法,利用Glove词向量表示单词以及单词与单词之间的依存关系,构造出包含句法依存信息的依存关系邻接矩阵和依存关系表示矩阵,利用图卷积神经网络和多头注意力机制将句法依存信息融入到方面术语中,使得方面术语表达与上下文结构高度相关。将改进后的方面词术语表示替换到现有模型后,模型泛化能力得到有效提升。对比试验和分析结果表明:该方法具有有效性和泛化性。 相似文献
10.
Lokesh Rajulapati Sivadurgaprasad Chinta Bala Shyamala Raghunathan Rengaswamy 《American Institute of Chemical Engineers》2022,68(6):e17715
Model building and parameter estimation are traditional concepts widely used in chemical, biological, metallurgical, and manufacturing industries. Early modeling methodologies focused on mathematically capturing the process knowledge and domain expertise of the modeler. The models thus developed are termed first principles models (or white-box models). Over time, computational power became cheaper, and massive amounts of data became available for modeling. This led to the development of cutting edge machine learning models (black-box models) and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. Hybrid models (gray-box models) are a combination of first principles and machine learning models. The development of hybrid models has captured the attention of researchers as this combines the best of both modeling paradigms. Recent attention to this field stems from the interest in explainable AI (XAI), a critical requirement as AI systems become more pervasive. This work aims at identifying and categorizing various hybrid models available in the literature that integrate machine-learning models with different forms of domain knowledge. Benefits such as enhanced predictive power, extrapolation capabilities, and other advantages of combining the two approaches are summarized. The goal of this article is to consolidate the published corpus in the area of hybrid modeling and develop a comprehensive framework to understand the various techniques presented. This framework can further be used as the foundation to explore rational associations between several models. 相似文献