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1.
《Journal of dairy science》2022,105(6):5471-5492
The detection of reproductive tract disease (RTD) 3 wk postpartum is important because of its effect on subsequent reproductive outcomes. Numerous methods for the diagnosis of RTD are described, some of which are more practical and instantaneous in terms of diagnosis. Two of these methods involve identification of purulent vaginal discharge (PVD) and evidence of ultrasonographic uterine changes indicative of endometritis (UE). The objectives of our retrospective observational study were (1) to assess the association of PVD or UE score at the prebreeding examination (PBE) with the hazard of pregnancy within the subsequent breeding season; (2) to determine the test sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) at the point of sampling of both tests using a Bayesian latent class model; and (3) to determine the effect of varying positivity thresholds on test accuracy. To achieve these objectives, we analyzed an initial data set of 5,049 PBE from 2,460 spring-calved cows in 8 herds between 2014 and 2018. Each PBE was conducted once between 25 and 86 d in milk. At each PBE, vaginal discharge was obtained with a Metricheck device (Simcro) whereas uterine contents were assessed using transrectal ultrasonography. Purulent vaginal discharge was scored on a scale of 0 to 3 depending on discharge character, and UE was scored on a scale of 0 to 4 depending on the presence and consistency of intraluminal fluid. Cows with scores of ≥2 in either test had received treatment. Fertility data were available from 4,756 PBE after data exclusion. The association between PVD or UE score at the PBE and subsequent hazard of pregnancy was analyzed using a Cox proportional hazards model. Cows with a PVD score of 2 or 3 were less likely to conceive than cows with a PVD score 0 [score 2 hazard ratio (HR) = 0.74; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.59–0.94; score 3 HR = 0.65; 95% CI: 0.51–0.84]. Cows with a UE score of 1, 2, 3, or 4 were less likely to conceive than cows with a UE score of 0 (score 1 HR = 0.82; 95% CI: 0.73–0.93; score 2 HR = 0.79; 95% CI: 0.62–1.00; score 3 HR = 0.43; 95% CI: 0.43–0.90; score 4 HR = 0.39; 95% CI: 0.26–0.58). To determine the Se and Sp of PVD or UE score for diagnosis of RTD at the time of PBE, a Bayesian latent class model was fitted on 2,460 individual cow PBE. Flat priors were used for the Se and Sp of UE, whereas informative priors were used for PVD Se (mode = 65%, 5th percentile = 45%) and Sp (mode = 90%, 5th percentile = 80%) and RTD prevalence (mode = 20%, 5th percentile = 10%). Posterior estimates (median and 95% Bayesian probability intervals; BPI) were obtained using ‘rjags' (R Studio). The optimal test thresholds (PVD and UE score ≥1) were selected by assessing the effect of different thresholds on test estimates and using a misclassification cost analysis. Based on these, median (95% BPI) Se for PVD and UE score ≥1 were 44% (29–60%) and 67% (33–100%), respectively. Median Sp for PVD and UE score ≥1 were 90% (86–93%) and 91% (86–93%), respectively. Higher scores in both tests were associated with impaired fertility, and UE scoring with a threshold of ≥1 had the highest test Se and Sp estimates although test Se was conditional on days in milk when the PBE occurred.  相似文献   
2.
田珂 《弹道学报》2022,34(3):49-57
利用连续波雷达测试弹丸径向速度时,会遇到弹丸、火炮、雷达及外界因素异常,测试的径向速度会出现缺失,导致递推出的炮口初速不准确。为此,选择建立合理的模型预测出缺失的径向速度对数据进行重构。雷达测试的径向速度属于一维数据,大口径弹丸的径向速度主要包含线性特征,小口径弹丸的径向速度既包含线性特征又包含非线性特征,都可以建立ARIMA模型、GM(1,1)灰色模型和回归模型进行预测。但是这些传统模型有时预测能力比较局限,预测精度不理想。为了充分整合所有模型的预测优势,提高预测精度,选择建立组合模型进行预测。针对大口径弹丸,建立由ARIMA、GM(1,1)和一阶线性回归方程构建的组合模型进行预测,针对小口径弹丸,建立由ARIMA、GM(1,1)和二次多项式回归方程构建的组合模型进行预测,为了保证预测精度,按照迭代的方式进行预测。实验结果表明,无论是大口径弹丸还是小口径弹丸,组合模型的预测精度始终高于单项模型,平均相对误差小于1‰,更加适合作为弹丸径向速度的预测模型。  相似文献   
3.
《Journal of dairy science》2022,105(3):2439-2452
Bias in dairy genetic evaluations, when it exists, has to be understood and properly addressed. The origin of biases is not always clear. We analyzed 40 yr of records from the Lacaune dairy sheep breeding program to evaluate the extent of bias, assess possible corrections, and emit hypotheses on its origin. The data set included 7 traits (milk yield, fat and protein contents, somatic cell score, teat angle, udder cleft, and udder depth) with records from 600,000 to 5 million depending on the trait, ~1,900,000 animals, and ~5,900 genotyped elite artificial insemination rams. For the ~8% animals with missing sire, we fit 25 unknown parent groups. We used the linear regression method to compare “partial” and “whole” predictions of young rams before and after progeny testing, with 7 cut-off points, and we obtained estimates of their bias, (over)dispersion, and accuracy in early proofs. We tried (1) several scenarios as follows: multiple or single trait, the “official” (routine) evaluation, which is a mixture of both single and multiple trait, and “deletion” of data before 1990; and (2) several models as follows: BLUP and single-step genomic (SSG)BLUP with fixed unknown parent groups or metafounders, where, for metafounders, their relationship matrix gamma was estimated using either a model for inbreeding trend, or base allele frequencies estimated by peeling. The estimate of gamma obtained by modeling the inbreeding trend resulted in an estimated increase of inbreeding, based on markers, faster than the pedigree-based one. The estimated genetic trends were similar for most models and scenarios across all traits, but were shrunken when gamma was estimated by peeling. This was due to shrinking of the estimates of metafounders in the latter case. Across scenarios, all traits showed bias, generally as an overestimate of genetic trend for milk yield and an underestimate for the other traits. As for the slope, it showed overdispersion of estimated breeding values for all traits. Using multiple-trait models slightly reduced the overestimate of genetic trend and the overdispersion, as did including genomic information (i.e., SSGBLUP) when the gamma matrix was estimated by the model for inbreeding trend. However, only deletion of historical data before 1990 resulted in elimination of both kind of biases. The SSGBLUP resulted in more accurate early proofs than BLUP for all traits. We considered that a snowball effect of small errors in each genetic evaluation, combined with selection, may have resulted in biased evaluations. Improving statistical methods reduced some bias but not all, and a simple solution for this data set was to remove historical records.  相似文献   
4.
针对德国斯派克MAXx04型火花直读光谱仪,建立起Sn-Sb-Cu的分析程序,绘制各元素的工作曲线,增加类型标准化等,并对其精密度、准确度进行考查,应用火花直读光谱仪可满足Sn-Sb-Cu系锡基合金快速、准确分析的要求。  相似文献   
5.
重反射层的应用可提高反应堆中子经济性,其结构和中子吸收特性均与压水堆常规围板/反射层差异较大,因此对核设计程序的计算分析能力提出了新的要求。为分析重反射层建模方案对堆芯中子学计算结果的影响,使用先进中子学程序SCAP N和确定论堆芯高保真模拟程序NECP X对压水堆重反射层问题进行了高保真模拟,分析了5种反射层建模方案下计算结果的差异,并将高精度计算结果与商用核设计程序系统进行了对比。数值结果表明,重反射层水洞内冷却剂温度变化对计算结果影响较小;相较精确建模方案,重反射层铁水打混建模方案造成的反应性计算偏差在±30 pcm以内、组件相对功率分布计算偏差在±2%以内。  相似文献   
6.
With a sharp increase in the information volume, analyzing and retrieving this vast data volume is much more essential than ever. One of the main techniques that would be beneficial in this regard is called the Clustering method. Clustering aims to classify objects so that all objects within a cluster have similar features while other objects in different clusters are as distinct as possible. One of the most widely used clustering algorithms with the well and approved performance in different applications is the k-means algorithm. The main problem of the k-means algorithm is its performance which can be directly affected by the selection in the primary clusters. Lack of attention to this crucial issue has consequences such as creating empty clusters and decreasing the convergence time. Besides, the selection of appropriate initial seeds can reduce the cluster’s inconsistency. In this paper, we present a new method to determine the initial seeds of the k-mean algorithm to improve the accuracy and decrease the number of iterations of the algorithm. For this purpose, a new method is proposed considering the average distance between objects to determine the initial seeds. Our method attempts to provide a proper tradeoff between the accuracy and speed of the clustering algorithm. The experimental results showed that our proposed approach outperforms the Chithra with 1.7% and 2.1% in terms of clustering accuracy for Wine and Abalone detection data, respectively. Furthermore, achieved results indicate that comparing with the Reverse Nearest Neighbor (RNN) search approach, the proposed method has a higher convergence speed.  相似文献   
7.
An acoustic emission (AE) experiment was carried out to explore the AE location accuracy influenced by temperature. A hollow hemispherical specimen was used to simulate common underground structures. In the process of heating with the flame, the pulse signal of constant frequency was stimulated as an AE source. Then AE signals received by each sensor were collected and used for comparing localization accuracy at different temperatures. Results show that location errors of AE keep the same phenomenon in the early and middle heating stages. In the later stage of heating, location errors of AE increase sharply due to the appearance of cracks. This provides some beneficial suggestions on decreasing location errors of structural cracks caused by temperature and improves the ability of underground structure disaster prevention and control.  相似文献   
8.
液压系统广泛应用于工程领域,提高功率密度是其重要发展方向,其中液压集成块轻量化设计是提高功率密度的有效手段。通过增材制造(AM)灵活的加工特性能使集成块重量降低,是高功率密度液压驱动的一种有效的设计方法,但目前增材制造加工的流道存在塌陷形变、尺寸精度低、内部流道粗糙度高等问题。以提升增材制造流道成型质量为研究目标,选区激光熔融(SLM)为加工方法,探讨流道横截面及打印模型中有无支撑添加对成型质量的影响,并通过非接触测量对打印模型内部流道尺寸进行测量得到定量分析。结果表明,对于圆形流道,有支撑结构有较好的打印结果,菱形流道形变量小于圆形流道。进一步通过改变打印参数对内流道表面质量进行研究,结果显示适当选择工艺参数可以提高表面质量。  相似文献   
9.
何键  蒋赫  朱明 《现代铸铁》2021,(2):24-28
从现场实物数据采集和后续软件处理分析两个方面介绍了3D测量用于风电铸件的一般步骤,详细阐述了每项工作的工作原理,总结出影响扫描精度和扫描速度的主要因素,提出了各项工作中的注意事项,得出以下结论:3D扫描技术在大型铸件测量实物中的测量精度、工作效率和结论评价方面的优势突出,对铸造工艺改进有直观、精确的指导,同时也在一些给客户的SDR中提供逆向建模的帮助,是一种便捷、高效、精准、应用广泛的3D测量技术。  相似文献   
10.
为实现采矿权勘测定界工作科学化、规范化、精准化,研究制定采矿权勘测定界技术规程已刻不容缓。本文基于矿业权“三位一体”权利结构的解析,从准入资质、国土空间管控行政权及资产物权三个维度,梳理了相关技术标准对勘测定界测量精度的规定,确定采矿权勘测定界测量精度应分级规制,不应一刀切。从物权角度探讨了采矿权勘测定界测量精度的决定因素,规定了三个等级采矿权勘测定界测量中误差分别为0.1、0.2、1.0m。最后提出了关于矿区范围拐点坐标数值只需保留两位的政策建议。  相似文献   
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