天然橡胶期货市场回顾及后市展望

2019年天然橡胶期货市场起起落落,沪胶价格继续低位震荡。2020年天然橡胶供大于求的局面仍不会发生根本性改变,由极端天气引发的天然橡胶市场行情变动可能会减小,汽车行业可能会在政策支持下再次振兴,尤其重型卡车市场会成为亮点,轮胎企业继续寻求扩大出口。2020年上半年,天然橡胶期货市场可能还会受到2019年异常天气和病害等的余波作用,胶价会达到一个相对的高点,价格底部抬升,但很难出现持续性上涨的市场行情。2020年下半年,随着天然橡胶产量的季节性增长,胶价可能会再次回落。     

中国黄金期货市场套期保值功能实证研究

通过对上海期货交易所黄金期货合约上市以来2008年1月至2009年12月共82个期货价格和现货价格的周数据、60个旬数据、41个双周数据和20个四周数据的实证研究,运用传统回归模型(OLS)、双变量向量自回归模型(B- VAR)、误差修正套期保值模型(ECHM)、误差修正GARCH模型(EC-GARCH)对样本数据进行...     

电力期货价格的协整建模与预测

在电力市场环境下,电力期货价格受现货价格、利率和负荷需求等多种因素影响,变化趋势复杂,很难将所有的因素都加以考虑来建立一个准确的模型对其进行全面描述．因此,选取最重要的影响因素：电力现货价格,利用协整理论来研究电力期货价格和现货价格之间的动态关系,并建立向量误差修正模型（VECM）,对电力期货价格进行有效的预测．     

Geomorphic diversity as a river management tool and its application to the Ganga River,India

Understanding of geomorphic processes and the determination of geomorphic diversity in catchments are prerequisites for the sustainable rehabilitation of river systems and for reach‐scale assessment of river health. The Ganga River system in India is a large, complex system consisting of several long tributaries, some >1,000 km, originating from 2 distinct hinterlands—the Himalaya to the north and the cratons to the south. Traversing through a diverse climatic regime across the Plain and through precipitation zones ranging from 600 mm/year near Delhi to 1,200 mm/year in the eastern plains, the Ganga River system has formed very diverse landform assemblages in 3 major geomorphic domains. We have recognized 10 different river classes for the trunk river from Gangotri (source) to Farakka (upstream of its confluence with the Brahmaputra) based on (a) landscape setting, (b) channel and active floodplain properties, and (c) channel planform parameters. The mountainous stretch is characterized by steep valleys and bedrock channels and is dominated by large‐scale sediment production and transport through hill slope processes. The alluvial part of the river is characterized by 8 different river classes of varying reach lengths (60–300 km) many of which show sharp transitions in landscape setting. We have highlighted the application of this approach for the assessment of habitat suitability, environmental flows, and flood risk all of which have been significantly modified during the last few decades due to large‐scale anthropogenic disturbances. We suggest that the diversity embedded in this geomorphic framework can be useful for developing a sustainable river management programme to “work with” the contemporary character and behaviour of rivers.     

Prediction of Future Uniform Milk Prices in Florida Federal Milk Marketing Order 6 from Milk Futures Markets

This study assessed the accuracy of 3 methods that predict the uniform milk price in Federal Milk Marketing Order 6 (Florida). Predictions were made for 1 to 12 mo into the future. Data were from January 2003 to May 2007. The CURRENT method assumed that future uniform milk prices were equal to the last announced uniform milk price. The F+BASIS and F+UTIL methods were based on the milk futures markets because the futures prices reflect the market's expectation of the class III and class IV cash prices that are announced monthly by USDA. The F+BASIS method added an exponentially weighted moving average of the difference between the class III cash price and the historical uniform milk price (also known as basis) to the class III futures price. The F+UTIL method used the class III and class IV futures prices, the most recently announced butter price, and historical utilizations to predict the skim milk prices, butterfat prices, and utilizations in all 4 classes. Predictions of future utilizations were made with a Holt-Winters smoothing method. Federal Milk Marketing Order 6 had high class I utilization (85 ± 4.8%). Mean and standard deviation of the class III and class IV cash prices were $13.39 ± 2.40/cwt (1 cwt = 45.36 kg) and $12.06 ± 1.80/cwt, respectively. The actual uniform price in Tampa, Florida, was $16.62 ± 2.16/cwt. The basis was $3.23 ± 1.23/cwt. The F+BASIS and F+UTIL predictions were generally too low during the period considered because the class III cash prices were greater than the corresponding class III futures prices. For the 1- to 6-mo-ahead predictions, the root of the mean squared prediction errors from the F+BASIS method were $1.12, $1.20, $1.55, $1.91, $2.16, and $2.34/cwt, respectively. The root of the mean squared prediction errors ranged from $2.50 to $2.73/cwt for predictions up to 12 mo ahead. Results from the F+UTIL method were similar. The accuracies of the F+BASIS and F+UTIL methods for all 12 fore-cast horizons were not significantly different. Application of the modified Mariano-Diebold tests showed that no method included all the information contained in the other methods. In conclusion, both F+BASIS and F+UTIL methods tended to more accurately predict the future uniform milk prices than the CURRENT method, but prediction errors could be substantial even a few months into the future. The majority of the prediction error was caused by the inefficiency of the futures markets to predict the class III cash prices.     

中国天然气现货市场与期货市场关系研究

叙述了中国天然气现货市场形成情况以及目前的发展现状,分析了天然气现货市场与期货市场关系,简要探讨如何在已有的天然气现货市场的基础上建立天然气期货市场。     

Time variation in European carbon pass-through rates in electricity futures prices

The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme is a means to price emission allowances. Electricity market prices should reflect these market prices of emission allowances as they are a cost factor for power producers. The pass-through rate is the fraction of the emission allowance price that is passed through to electricity market prices. It is often measured and presented as an average or a fixed estimate over some time period. However, we expect that the pass-through rates should actually vary over time as electricity supply curves reflect the marginal costs of different producers that differ in emission intensity. We apply a Kalman Filter approach to observe pass-through rates in Germany and U.K. and find strong support for time varying instead of fixed pass-through rates. Although policy makers are interested in the impact of a policy on average, our results indicate that one needs to be careful with the time-frame over which pass-through rates are measured for policy evaluation, as an incorrect chosen evaluation period could cause an under- or overestimation of the pass-through rate. In addition, our model helps to provide policy makers with insight in the development of pass-through rates when market circumstances change with respect to power production.     

Towards a sustainably certifiable futures contract for biofuels

How are biofuels to be certified as produced in a sustainable and responsible fashion? In the global debate over this issue, one party to the proceedings seems rarely to be mentioned—namely the commodities exchanges through which a global biofuels market is being created. In this contribution, I propose a solution to the problem of sustainability certification through a biofuels futures contract equipped with ‘proof of origin’ documentation. The proposal does not call for any radical break with current practice, extending existing certification procedures with a requirement for the vendor to provide documentation, probably in barcoded form, of the history of the biofuel offered for sale, including plantation and biorefinery where the biofuel was produced and subsequent blendings it may have undergone. The proposal is thus compatible with the blending practices of large global traders, whose activities are the source of the difficulties of other approaches to certification. It is argued that if such a sustainable futures contract for bioethanol (in the first instance) were to be introduced, then it would likely trade at a premium and become the primary vehicle for North–South trade in biofuels.     

An Empirical Analysis of the Price Discovery Function of Shanghai Fuel Oil Futures Market

This paper analyzes the role of price discovery of Shanghai fuel oil futures market by using methods, such as unit root test, co-integration test, error correction model, Granger causality test, impulse-response function and variance decomposition. The results showed that there exists a strong relationship between the spot price of Huangpu fuel oil spot market and the futures price of Shanghai fuel oil futures market. In addition, the Shanghai fuel oil futures market exhibits a highly effective price discovery function.     

基于CAPM的风险对冲方法

证券投资是一项商收益伴随商风险的经济活动。从分析CAPM(资本资产定价模型)入手．提出了用股票指数期货来对冲股票组合风险的一种方法。采用这种对冲方法，可转移市场风险，仅使对冲者股票组合与市场有关的部分收益暴露于市场风险当中。