Transport Map sampling with PGD model reduction for fast dynamical Bayesian data assimilation

The motivation of this work is to address real-time sequential inference of parameters with a full Bayesian formulation. First, the proper generalized decomposition (PGD) is used to reduce the computational evaluation of the posterior density in the online phase. Second, Transport Map sampling is used to build a deterministic coupling between a reference measure and the posterior measure. The determination of the transport maps involves the solution of a minimization problem. As the PGD model is quasi-analytical and under a variable separation form, the use of gradient and Hessian information speeds up the minimization algorithm. Eventually, uncertainty quantification on outputs of interest of the model can be easily performed due to the global feature of the PGD solution over all coordinate domains. Numerical examples highlight the performance of the method.     

Adaptive neuro-fuzzy algorithm applied to predict and control multi-phase flow rates through wellhead chokes

A Takagi-Sugeno adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (TSFIS) model is developed and applied to a dataset of wellhead flow-test data for the Resalat oil field located offshore southern Iran, the objective is to assist in the prediction and control of multi-phase flow rates of oil and gas through the wellhead chokes. For this purpose, 182 test data points (Appendix 1) related to the Resalat field are evaluated. In order to predict production flow rate (Q_L) expressed as stock-tank barrels per day (STB/D), this dataset includes four selected input variables: upstream pressure (Pwh); wellhead choke sizes (D64); gas to liquid ratio (GLR); and, base solids and water including some water-soluble oil emulsion (BS&W). The test data points evaluated include a wide range of oil flow rate conditions and values for the four input variables recorded. The TSFIS algorithm applied involves five data processing steps: a) pre-processing, b) fuzzification, c) rules base and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference engine, d) defuzzification, and e) post-processing of the fuzzy model. The developed TSFIS model for the Resalat oil field database predicted oil flow rate to a high degree of accuracy (root mean square error = 247 STB/D, correlation coefficient = 0.9987), which improves substantially on the commonly used empirical algorithms used for such predictions. TSFIS can potentially be applied in wellhead choke fuzzy controllers to stabilize flow in specific wells based on real-time input data records.     

Estimating posterior inference quality of the relational infinite latent feature model for overlapping community detection

Overlapping community detection has become a very hot research topic in recent decades, and a plethora of methods have been proposed. But, a common challenge in many existing overlapping community detection approaches is that the number of communities K must be predefinedmanually. We propose a flexible nonparametric Bayesian generative model for count-value networks, which can allow K to increase as more and more data are encountered instead of to be fixed in advance. The Indian buffet process was used to model the community assignment matrix Z, and an uncollapsed Gibbs sampler has been derived.However, as the community assignment matrix Z is a structured multi-variable parameter, how to summarize the posterior inference results and estimate the inference quality about Z, is still a considerable challenge in the literature. In this paper, a graph convolutional neural network based graph classifier was utilized to help to summarize the results and to estimate the inference quality about Z. We conduct extensive experiments on synthetic data and real data, and find that empirically, the traditional posterior summarization strategy is reliable.     

基于特征贡献率的机械故障分类方法

为了使7075铝合金薄壁件表面喷丸加工应力得到松弛和均化，运用ANSYS建立平台式振动时效有限元模型，通过振动模态和谐响应分析，获得最佳激振频率和试样装夹位置。在此基础上，将薄壁框架件置于平台上进行振动时效处理，以验证仿真分析结果，评价其对试样表面应力作用效果。结果表明：在亚共振频率为112 Hz时，试样在平台零振幅和最大弯曲位置处分别对称布置，时效后表面均形成应力松弛，松弛率分别为29.5%和33.3%，不均匀波动分别为20.3%和20.7%，而沿振动方向松弛程度不均匀，说明激振力造成了材料表面组织屈服，且屈服程度与应力强度有关。提出再时效-位置交叠方法，使应力松弛不均匀度分别下降到9.9%和15.9%，应力均化得到改善，该研究工作为薄壁类零件表面应力均匀化提供了参考。     

基于模糊推理的碟式太阳能跟踪系统改进研究

在碟式太阳能系统的长期实验数据中发现,太阳辐照度较低时系统集热效率非常低。为使碟式太阳能系统始终运行在高集热效率状态,提出模糊推理方法改进跟踪系统的启停判定条件,并根据集热器出口气流温度的影响因素建立模糊推理系统。仿真结果表明模糊系统在已知太阳辐照度、辐照变化度和空气流量的前提下,可智能控制系统在集热效率高时运行,集热效率低时待机,证明了该方法的可行性和有效性。     

Prediction of rock mass P wave velocity using blasthole drilling information

In this paper, the development of the models for the prediction of rock mass P wave velocity is presented. For model development, the database of 53 cases including widely used and recorded drilling parameters and P wave velocity was constructed from the field studies conducted in 13 open pit lignite mines. Both conventional linear, non-linear multiple regression and Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) were used for model development. Prediction performance indicators showed that ANFIS model presented the best performance and it can successfully be used for the preliminary prediction of P wave velocities of rock masses.     

Acoustic emission analysis using Bayesian model selection for damage characterization in ceramic matrix composites

Acoustic emission (AE) during tensile testing of three-dimensional woven SiC/SiC composites was analyzed by a statistical modeling method based on a Bayesian approach to quantitatively evaluate the fracture process. Gaussian mixture models and Weibull mixture models were utilized as candidate models describing the AE time-series data. After fitting AE time-series data to these models with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, the model selection was conducted by stochastic complexity. Among the candidate models, the two-component Weibull mixture model was automatically selected. It was confirmed that the component distributions in the two-component Weibull mixture model were corresponding to the evolution of matrix cracking and fiber breakage, respectively. Since the proposed AE analysis method can determine the number of component distributions without the decision of researchers and inspectors, it is expected to be useful for an understanding of the fracture process in newly developed materials and the reliability assessment in service.     

Integration of imitation learning using GAIL and reinforcement learning using task-achievement rewards via probabilistic graphical model

The integration of reinforcement learning (RL) and imitation learning (IL) is an important problem that has long been studied in the field of intelligent robotics. RL optimizes policies to maximize the cumulative reward, whereas IL attempts to extract general knowledge about the trajectories demonstrated by experts, i.e, demonstrators. Because each has its own drawbacks, many methods combining them and compensating for each set of drawbacks have been explored thus far. However, many of these methods are heuristic and do not have a solid theoretical basis. This paper presents a new theory for integrating RL and IL by extending the probabilistic graphical model (PGM) framework for RL, control as inference. We develop a new PGM for RL with multiple types of rewards, called probabilistic graphical model for Markov decision processes with multiple optimality emissions (pMDP-MO). Furthermore, we demonstrate that the integrated learning method of RL and IL can be formulated as a probabilistic inference of policies on pMDP-MO by considering the discriminator in generative adversarial imitation learning (GAIL) as an additional optimality emission. We adapt the GAIL and task-achievement reward to our proposed framework, achieving significantly better performance than policies trained with baseline methods.     

Models for circular data from time series spectra

Circular data are those for which the natural support is the unit circle and its toroidal extensions. Numerous constructions have been proposed which can be used to generate models for such data. We propose a new, very general, one based on the normalization of the spectra of complex-valued stationary processes. As illustrations of the new construction's application, we study models for univariate circular data obtained from the spectra of autoregressive moving average models and relate them to existing models in the literature. We also propose and investigate multivariate circular models obtained from the high-order spectra of stationary stochastic processes generated using linear filtering with an autoregressive moving average response function. A new family of distributions for a Markov process on the circle is also introduced. Results for asymptotically optimal inference for dependent observations on the circle are presented which provide a new paradigm for inference with circular models. The application of one of the new families of spectra-generated models is illustrated in an analysis of wind direction data.