基于VMD和改进TCN的短期光伏发电功率预测

光伏发电功率存在波动性,且光伏出力易受各种气象特征影响,传统TCN网络容易过度强化空间特性而弱化个体特性。针对上述问题,文中提出一种基于VMD和改进TCN的短期光伏发电功率预测模型。通过VMD将原始光伏发电功率时间序列分解为若干不同频率的模态分量,将各个模态分量以及相对应的气象数据输入至改进TCN网络进行建模学习。利用中心频率法确定VMD的最优分解模态分解个数。在传统TCN预测模型的基础上,使用DropBlock正则化取代Dropout正则化以达到抑制卷积层中信息协同的效果,并引入注意力机制自主挖掘并突出关键气象输入特征的影响,量化各气象因素对光伏发电的影响,从而提高预测精度。以江苏省某光伏电站真实数据为例进行仿真实验,结果表明所提预测方法的RMSE为0.62 MW,MAPE为2.03%。     

Nonlinear modal analysis via non‐parametric machine learning tools

Modal analysis is an important tool in the structural dynamics community; it is widely utilised to understand and investigate the dynamical characteristics of linear structures. Many methods have been proposed in recent years regarding the extension to nonlinear analysis, such as nonlinear normal modes or the method of normal forms, with the main objective being to formulate a mathematical model of a nonlinear dynamical structure based on observations of input/output data from the dynamical system. In fact, for the majority of structures where the effect of nonlinearity becomes significant, nonlinear modal analysis is a necessity. The objective of the current paper is to demonstrate a machine learning approach to output‐only nonlinear modal decomposition using kernel independent component analysis and locally linear‐embedding analysis. The key element is to demonstrate a pattern recognition approach which exploits the idea of independence of principal components from the linear theory by learning the nonlinear manifold between the variables. In this work, the importance of output‐only modal analysis via “blind source” separation tools is highlighted as the excitation input/force is not needed and the method can be implemented directly via experimental data signals without worrying about the presence or not of specific nonlinearities in the structure.     

枪管结构对固有频率的影响

为了研究枪管结构对枪管固有频率的影响,针对枪管尤其是狙击枪管设计中约束长度、枪管外形、膛口装置以及膛线等不同结构,建立了相应的三维模型。采用以六面体为主的网格对枪管进行了网格划分,采用有限元方法对枪管进行了模态分析。计算获得了不同结构枪管的固有频率; 通过比较,得到了不同枪管结构对固有频率的影响。分析结果表明:枪管尾部螺纹长度越长,枪口振动幅度越低; 相同质量枪管,锥形外形枪管刚度最好; 加装膛口装置对枪管刚度和振动特性有不利影响。     

Elliptical distribution-based weight-determining method for ordered weighted averaging operators

The ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operators play a crucial role in aggregating multiple criteria evaluations into an overall assessment supporting the decision makers’ choice. One key point steps is to determine the associated weights. In this paper, we first briefly review some main methods for determining the weights by using distribution functions. Then we propose a new approach for determining OWA weights by using the regular increasing monotone quantifier. Motivated by the idea of normal distribution-based method to determine the OWA weights, we develop a method based on elliptical distributions for determining the OWA weights, and some of its desirable properties have been investigated.     

Some q-rung orthopair uncertain linguistic aggregation operators and their application to multiple attribute group decision making

q-Rung orthopair fuzzy sets (q-ROFSs), originally presented by Yager, are a powerful fuzzy information representation model, which generalize the classical intuitionistic fuzzy sets and Pythagorean fuzzy sets and provide more freedom and choice for decision makers (DMs) by allowing the sum of the $q\mathrm{t}\mathrm{h}$ power of the membership and the $q\mathrm{t}\mathrm{h}$ power of the nonmembership to be less than or equal to 1. In this paper, a new class of fuzzy sets called q-rung orthopair uncertain linguistic sets (q-ROULSs) based on the q-ROFSs and uncertain linguistic variables (ULVs) is proposed, and this can describe the qualitative assessment of DMs and provide them more freedom in reflecting their belief about allowable membership grades. On the basis of the proposed operational rules and comparison method of q-ROULSs, several q-rung orthopair uncertain linguistic aggregation operators are developed, including the q-rung orthopair uncertain linguistic weighted arithmetic average operator, the q-rung orthopair uncertain linguistic ordered weighted average operator, the q-rung orthopair uncertain linguistic hybrid weighted average operator, the q-rung orthopair uncertain linguistic weighted geometric average operator, the q-rung orthopair uncertain linguistic ordered weighted geometric operator, and the q-rung orthopair uncertain linguistic hybrid weighted geometric operator. Then, some desirable properties and special cases of these new operators are also investigated and studied, in particular, some existing intuitionistic fuzzy aggregation operators and Pythagorean fuzzy aggregation operators are proved to be special cases of these new operators. Furthermore, based on these proposed operators, we develop an approach to solve the multiple attribute group decision making problems, in which the evaluation information is expressed as q-rung orthopair ULVs. Finally, we provide several examples to illustrate the specific decision-making steps and explain the validity and feasibility of two methods by comparing with other methods.     

Multicriteria decision-making using Archimedean aggregation operators in Pythagorean hesitant fuzzy environment

In multicriteria decision-making (MCDM), the existing aggregation operators are mostly based on algebraic t-conorm and t-norm. But, Archimedean t-conorms and t-norms are the generalized forms of t-conorms and t-norms which include algebraic, Einstein, Hamacher, Frank, and other types of t-conorms and t-norms. From that view point, in this paper the concepts of Archimedean t-conorm and t-norm are introduced to aggregate Pythagorean hesitant fuzzy information. Some new operational laws for Pythagorean hesitant fuzzy numbers based on Archimedean t-conorm and t-norm have been proposed. Using those operational laws, Archimedean t-conorm and t-norm-based Pythagorean hesitant fuzzy weighted averaging operator and weighted geometric operator are developed. Some of their desirable properties have also been investigated. Afterwards, these operators are applied to solve MCDM problems in Pythagorean hesitant fuzzy environment. The developed Archimedean aggregation operators are also applicable in Pythagorean fuzzy contexts also. To demonstrate the validity, practicality, and effectiveness of the proposed method, a practical problem is considered, solved, and compared with other existing method.     

改进的区间犹豫算子应用于物流企业选择决策

针对现有区间犹豫模糊Hamacher算子存在的缺陷，构建了一种基于改进的区间犹豫模糊Hamacher加权算子的群决策方法。在分析现有区间犹豫模糊Hamacher算子不能满足幂等性的基础上，定义新的区间犹豫模糊Hamacher四则运算；提出两种改进的区间犹豫模糊Hamacher加权算子，包括改进的区间犹豫模糊Hamacher有序加权平均（I-IVHFHOWA）算子和改进的区间犹豫模糊Hamacher有序加权几何（I-IVHFHOWG）算子，并详细探究它们的常用算子形式以及算子之间的内在联系；建立基于I-IVHFHOWA算子和I-IVHFHOWG算子的物流企业选择决策模型，并通过实例说明模型的有效性。     

Weighted power means of q-rung orthopair fuzzy information and their applications in multiattribute decision making

Weighted power means with weights and exponents serving as their parameters are generalizations of arithmetic means. Taking into account decision makers' flexibility in decision making, each attribute value is usually expressed by a $q$-rung orthopair fuzzy value ($q$-ROFV, $q\ge 1$), where the former indicates the support for membership, the latter support against membership, and the sum of their $q$th powers is bounded by one. In this paper, we propose the weighted power means of $q$-rung orthopair fuzzy values to enrich and flourish aggregations on $q$-ROFVs. First, the $q$-rung orthopair fuzzy weighted power mean operator is presented, and its boundedness is precisely characterized in terms of the power exponent. Then, the $q$-rung orthopair fuzzy ordered weighted power mean operator is introduced, and some of its fundamental properties are investigated in detail. Finally, a novel multiattribute decision making method is explored based on developed operators under the $q$-rung orthopair fuzzy environment. A numerical example is given to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed approach, and it is shown that the power exponent is an index suggesting the degree of the optimism of decision makers.