Unreliable numbers: error and harm induced by bad design can be reduced by better design

Number entry is a ubiquitous activity and is often performed in safety- and mission-critical procedures, such as healthcare, science, finance, aviation and in many other areas. We show that Monte Carlo methods can quickly and easily compare the reliability of different number entry systems. A surprising finding is that many common, widely used systems are defective, and induce unnecessary human error. We show that Monte Carlo methods enable designers to explore the implications of normal and unexpected operator behaviour, and to design systems to be more resilient to use error. We demonstrate novel designs with improved resilience, implying that the common problems identified and the errors they induce are avoidable.     

GOS+MU:一种查询对象选择新方法

在分析单一MU(Most Uncertainty)采样缺陷的基础上,提出一种"全局最优搜寻"方法 GOS(Global Optimal Search),并结合MU共同完成查询选择。GOS+MU方法中,GOS着眼全局寻找目标,在应用环境能提供的训练样本数量有限、分类器受训不充分时,该方法选择的对象学习价值高,能快速推进分类器学习进程;MU则能够在GOS采样失效情形下,利用分类器当前训练成果,选择查询不确定性最强的样本补充训练集。通过对网络商品的用户评论进行分类仿真,并比较其他采样学习方法的效果,证明了GOS+MU方法在压缩学习成本、提高训练效率方面的有效性。     

Managing readiness-relevant activities for the organizational dimension of ERP implementation

An organization requires performing readiness-relevant activities to ensure successful implementation of an enterprise resource planning (ERP) system. This paper develops a novel approach to managing these interrelated activities to get ready for implementing an ERP system. The approach enables an organization to evaluate its ERP implementation readiness by assessing the degree to which it can achieve the interrelated readiness relevant activities using fuzzy cognitive maps. Based on the interrelationship degrees among the activities, the approach clusters the activities into manageable groups and prioritizes them. To help work out a readiness improvement plan, scenario analysis is conducted.     

ECG heart beat classification method based on modified ABC algorithm

Electrocardiogram is the most commonly used tool for the diagnosis of cardiologic diseases. In order to help cardiologists to diagnose the arrhythmias automatically, new methods for automated, computer aided ECG analysis are being developed. In this paper, a Modified Artificial Bee Colony (MABC) algorithm for ECG heart beat classification is introduced. It is applied to ECG data set which is obtained from MITBIH database and the result of MABC is compared with seventeen other classifier's accuracy.In classification problem, some features have higher distinctiveness than others. In this study, in order to find higher distinctive features, a detailed analysis has been done on time domain features. By using the right features in MABC algorithm, high classification success rate (99.30%) is obtained. Other methods generally have high classification accuracy on examined data set, but they have relatively low or even poor sensitivities for some beat types. Different data sets, unbalanced sample numbers in different classes have effect on classification result. When a balanced data set is used, MABC provided the best result as 97.96% among all classifiers.Not only part of the records from examined MITBIH database, but also all data from selected records are used to be able to use developed algorithm on a real time system in the future by using additional software modules and making adaptation on a specific hardware.     

Modeling and analysis of passive worm propagation in the P2P file-sharing network

A number of worms, named P2P (peer-to-peer) passive worms, have recently surfaced, which propagate in P2P file-sharing networks and have posed heavy threats to these networks. In contrast to the majority of Internet worms, it is by exploiting users’ legitimate activities instead of vulnerabilities of networks in which P2P passive worms propagate. This feature evidently slows down their propagation, which results in them not attracting an adequate amount of attention in literature. Meanwhile, this feature visibly increases the difficulty of detecting them, which makes it very possible for them to become epidemic. In this paper, we propose an analytical model for P2P passive worm propagation by adopting epidemiological approaches so as to identify their behaviors and predict the tendency of their propagation accurately. Compared with a few existing models, dynamic characteristics of P2P networks are taken into account. Based on this proposed model, the sufficient condition for the global stability of the worm free equilibrium is derived by applying epidemiological theories. Large scale simulation experiments have validated both the proposed model and the condition.     

构皮滩水电站泄洪洞优化设计

构皮滩水电站为满足2008年12月工程提前发电的需要,结合现有泄洪洞地质情况和施工情况对泄洪洞布置进行了专题研究,结果表明利用降低进口高程为550 m的泄洪洞和坝身放空底孔联合参与后期导流,可缓解2007年导流隧洞下闸封堵后大坝在2008年汛期施工的压力,为大坝施工增加了2个月左右的工期。     

Beneficial effects of wettability altering surfactants in oil-wet fractured reservoirs

In fractured reservoirs, an effective matrix-fracture mass transfer is required for oil recovery. Surfactants have long been considered for oil recovery enhancement, mainly in terms of their ability to reduce oil–water interfacial tension. These surfactants are effective when the fractured formations are water-wet, where capillary imbibition of surfactants from the fracture into the matrix contributes to oil recovery. However, another beneficial aspect of surfactants, namely their ability to alter wettability, remains to be explored and exploited. Surfactants capable of altering wettability can be especially beneficial in oil-wet fractured formations, where the surfactant in the fracture diffuses into the matrix and alters the wettability, enabling imbibition of even more surfactant into the matrix. This sequential process of initial diffusion followed by imbibition continues well into the matrix yielding significant enhancements in oil recovery.In order to test this hypothesis of sequential diffusion–imbibition phenomenon, Dual-Drop Dual-Crystal (DDDC) contact angle experiments have been conducted using fractured Yates dolomite reservoir fluids, two types of surfactants (nonionic and anionic) and dolomite rock substrates. A new experimental procedure was developed in which crude oil equilibrated with reservoir brine has been exposed to surfactant to simulate the matrix-fracture interactions in fractured reservoirs. This procedure enables the measurements of dynamic contact angles and oil–water interfacial tensions, in addition to providing the visual observations of the dynamic behavior of crude oil trapped in the rock matrix as it encounters the diffusing surfactant from the fractures. Both the measurements and visual observations indicate wettability alterations of the matrix surface from oil-wet to less oil-wet or intermediate wet by the surfactants. Thus this study is of practical importance to oil-wet fractured formations where surfactant-induced wettability alterations can result in significant oil recovery enhancements. In addition, this study has also identified the need to include contact angle term in the dimensionless Bond number formulations for better quantitative interpretation of rock–fluids interactions.     

AlSb晶体内二维磁极化子的磁场与温度效应

在考虑声子之间相互作用的同时，本文应用线性组合算符和微扰法研究了电子自旋对弱耦合二维磁极化子特性的影响。对AlSb晶体所作的数值计算结果表明，随着磁场的加强，磁极化子平均数减少；随着温度的增加，磁极化子平均数也增加；随着温度的增加，电子自旋作用以及声子之间相互作用都加强；随着磁场的加强，电子自旋作用增加而声子之间相互作用基本不变。     

循环伏安法在润滑油检测中的应用

介绍了循环伏安法的产生背景、原理。应用该技术可以快速、方便地对润滑油中抗氧剂、总酸（碱）值进行测定，并且可以对不同厂家润滑油的抗氧剂包进行区别。该技术还可以有效地评价润滑油的使用寿命和设备工作状况。     

Performance and Commercial Application of the Promoter LCC-A for Maximization of Propylene Yield

1 Introduction Propylene as an important feedstock for organic chemicals is mainly originated from steam cracking and catalytic cracking processes. During the FCC process the propylene content varies with the FCC catalyst and process technology adopted, resulting in significant difference in propylene concentration in the cracked product——LPG. The conventional FCC pro- cess generally gives a propylene yield of around 4%, while the FCC process with maximization of propylene yield can in…