Assessment of the different sources of uncertainty in a SWAT model of the River Senne (Belgium)

Although rainfall input uncertainties are widely identified as being a key factor in hydrological models, the rainfall uncertainty is typically not included in the parameter identification and model output uncertainty analysis of complex distributed models such as SWAT and in maritime climate zones. This paper presents a methodology to assess the uncertainty of semi-distributed hydrological models by including, in addition to a list of model parameters, additional unknown factors in the calibration algorithm to account for the rainfall uncertainty (using multiplication factors for each separately identified rainfall event) and for the heteroscedastic nature of the errors of the stream flow. We used the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis algorithm (DREAM_(zs)) to infer the parameter posterior distributions and the output uncertainties of a SWAT model of the River Senne (Belgium). Explicitly considering heteroscedasticity and rainfall uncertainty leads to more realistic parameter values, better representation of water balance components and prediction uncertainty intervals.     

A web-based software tool for participatory optimization of conservation practices in watersheds

WRESTORE (Watershed Restoration Using Spatio-Temporal Optimization of Resources) is a web-based, participatory planning tool that can be used to engage with watershed stakeholder communities, and involve them in using science-based, human-guided, interactive simulation–optimization methods for designing potential conservation practices on their landscape. The underlying optimization algorithms, process simulation models, and interfaces allow users to not only spatially optimize the locations and types of new conservation practices based on quantifiable goals estimated by the dynamic simulation models, but also to include their personal subjective and/or unquantifiable criteria in the location and design of these practices. In this paper, we describe the software, interfaces, and architecture of WRESTORE, provide scenarios for implementing the WRESTORE tool in a watershed community's planning process, and discuss considerations for future developments.     

Managing readiness-relevant activities for the organizational dimension of ERP implementation

An organization requires performing readiness-relevant activities to ensure successful implementation of an enterprise resource planning (ERP) system. This paper develops a novel approach to managing these interrelated activities to get ready for implementing an ERP system. The approach enables an organization to evaluate its ERP implementation readiness by assessing the degree to which it can achieve the interrelated readiness relevant activities using fuzzy cognitive maps. Based on the interrelationship degrees among the activities, the approach clusters the activities into manageable groups and prioritizes them. To help work out a readiness improvement plan, scenario analysis is conducted.     

Electromagnetism-like algorithms for optimized tool path planning in 5-axis flank machining

Optimization of tool path planning using metaheuristic algorithms such as ant colony systems (ACS) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) provides a feasible approach to reduce geometrical machining errors in 5-axis flank machining of ruled surfaces. The optimal solutions of these algorithms exhibit an unsatisfactory quality in a high-dimensional search space. In this study, various algorithms derived from the electromagnetism-like mechanism (EM) were applied. The test results of representative surfaces showed that all EM-based methods yield more effective optimal solutions than does PSO, despite a longer search time. A new EM-MSS (electromagnetism-like mechanism with move solution screening) algorithm produces the most favorable results by ensuring the continuous improvement of new searches. Incorporating an SPSA (simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation) technique further improves the search results with effective initial solutions. This work enhances the practical values of tool path planning by providing a satisfactory machining quality.     

基于Q-learning的不确定环境BDI Agent最优策略规划研究

BDI模型能够很好地解决在特定环境下的Agent的推理和决策问题,但在动态和不确定环境下缺少决策和学习的能力。强化学习解决了Agent在未知环境下的决策问题,却缺少BDI模型中的规则描述和逻辑推理。针对BDI在未知和动态环境下的策略规划问题,提出基于强化学习Q-learning算法来实现BDI Agent学习和规划的方法,并针对BDI的实现模型ASL的决策机制做出了改进,最后在ASL的仿真平台Jason上建立了迷宫的仿真,仿真实验表明,在加入Q-learning学习机制后的新的ASL系统中,Agent在不确定环境下依然可以完成任务。     

浅析高校新校区选址主要影响因素

从政策、城市与区域规划、环境、文化及其传承因素、基础设施等方面探析了高校新校区选址有关的主要影响因素，以满足高等学校大规模的扩建要求，促进高等教育的发展。     

移动机器人路径规划方法研究

移动机器人技术研究中的一个重要领域是路径规划技术，它分为基于模型的环境已知的全局路径规划和基于传感器的环境未知的局部路径规划。综述了移动机器人路径规划技术的发展现状指出了各种方法的优点与不足，最后对移动机器人路径规划技术的发展趋势进行了展望。     

Parameter Uncertainty and Policy Intensity: Some Extensions and Suggestions for Further Work

The effects of parameter uncertainty on optimal policy have been a matter of interest for academics, and even for some policymakers, for a long time. Two lines of literature have developed analytical results on this matter. The first line uses static models and the second dynamic models. In this dynamic line most of the results are confined to models with a single state and a single control variable. In this paper we want to encourage the analysis of more general dynamic cases. To do so, the results in the dynamic line are extended from one-state and one-control finite horizon models to models with a pair of control variables. We then discuss some of the hurdles which must be surmounted for the results to be made more general and suggests some lines for further research. JEL classification: C61; E61