Influencer-defaulter mutation-based optimization algorithms for predicting electricity prices

Efficient electricity price forecasting plays a significant role in our society. In this paper, a novel influencer-defaulter mutation (IDM) mutation operator has been proposed. The IDM operator has been combined with six well-known optimization algorithms to create mutated optimization algorithms whose performance has been tested on twenty-four standard benchmark functions. Further, the artificial neural network is integrated with mutated optimization algorithms to solve the electricity price prediction problem. The policymakers can identify appropriate variables based on the predicted prices to help future market planning. The statistical results prove the efficacy of the IDM operator on the recent optimization algorithms.     

基于移动窗口法的城市遥感生态质量评价研究

为进一步提高城市生态监测的精确度，在前人开展的城市生态遥感监测研究的基础上引入“区域尺度”的概念，充分考虑小区域范围内不同地物间的交互作用，并利用移动窗口模型(Moving Window-Remote Sensing Ecology Index, MW-RSEI)对沈阳市浑南区的遥感影像进行逐像元分析。实验结果表明，MW-RSEI模型和生态遥感监测模型（Remote Sensing Ecology Index, RSEI)在整体生态评价趋势上表现出一致性。但MW-RSEI模型对城市生态中的细节区域表征更明显。考虑到建筑及裸地周围植被的影响，其较差生态区域的占比仅为6%，生态评价为优的区域占比为11%。研究区生态评价结果表现得较为连续，并未出现明显的断层现象。该结果具有现实意义且与实际生态分布更为符合。MW-RSEI模型在城市生态监测中更为适用，可为相关部门提供一定的技术参考。     

非常规气藏储层改造体积评价方法研究

为精确描述非常规气藏压裂后的复杂流动特征及定量评价储层改造体积（SRV），利用自主研发的缝网重构算法“破裂树生长法”建立压后缝网模型，并以此为基础提出了使用拟稳态流动时特定的压力等值线来确定SRV范围的定量评价方法，最后以长宁201井区为例进行了矿场实例分析。该方法根据微地震监测点的位置，重构出微裂缝网的连通关系。在复杂微裂缝网的基础上建立离散裂缝地质模型并进行生产数值模拟，根据数值模拟结果的压力分布精确划定SRV的范围。利用该方法计算出长宁201井区的SRV体积为0.052 1 km3，以该缝网模型的数值模拟产量预测结果符合实际生产规律，方法实用性较好。     

Predictive environmental hydrogen embrittlement on fracture toughness of commercial ferritic steels with hydrogen-modified fracture strain model

In this work, a practical numerical model with few parameters was proposed for the prediction of environmental hydrogen embrittlement. The proposed method adopts hydrogen enhanced plasticity-based mechanism in a fracture strain model to describe hydrogen embrittlement. Fracture toughness degradation of three commercial steels SA372J70, AISI4130 and X80 in high pressure hydrogen environment were investigated. Firstly, governing equations for hydrogen distribution and material damage evolution was established. Hydrogen enhanced localized flow softening effect was coupled within fracture strain dependency on stress triaxiality. Then, the numerical implementation and identification process of model parameters was described. Model parameters of the investigated steels were determined based on experiment results from literatures. Finally, with the calibrated model, fracture toughness reduction of the steels was predicted in a wide range of hydrogen pressure. The prediction results were compared with experimental results. Reasonable accuracy was reached. The proposed method is an attempt to reach balance between physical accurate prediction and engineering practicality. It is promising to provide a simplified numerical tool for the design and fit for service evaluation of hydrogen storage vessels.     

Experimental study and model predictions on helium release in an enclosure with single or multiple vents

This paper presents experiments performed at Canadian Nuclear Laboratories (CNL) to examine the dispersion behaviour of helium in a polycarbonate enclosure that was representative of a residential parking garage. The purpose was to gain a better understanding of the effect of buoyancy- or wind-driven natural ventilation on hydrogen dispersion behaviour. Although hydrogen dispersion studies have been reported extensively in the literature, gaps still exist in predictive methods for hazard analysis. Helium, a simulant for hydrogen, was injected near the centre of the floor with a flow rate ranging from 5 to 75 standard litres per minute through an upward-facing nozzle, resulting in an injection Richardson number ranging between 10^?1 and 10². The location of the nozzle varied from the bottom of the enclosure to near the ceiling to examine the impact of the nozzle elevation on the development of a stratified layer in the upper region of the enclosure. When the injection nozzle was placed at a sufficiently low elevation, the vertical helium profile always consisted of a homogenous layer at the top overlaying a stratified layer at the bottom. To simulate outdoor environmental conditions, a fan was placed in front of each vent to examine the effect of opposing or assisting wind on the dispersion. The helium transients in the uniform layer predicted with analytical models were in good agreement with the measured transients for most tests. Model improvements are required for adequately predicting transients with primarily stratified profiles or strong opposing wind.     

Removing data and using metafounders alleviates biases for all traits in Lacaune dairy sheep predictions

Bias in dairy genetic evaluations, when it exists, has to be understood and properly addressed. The origin of biases is not always clear. We analyzed 40 yr of records from the Lacaune dairy sheep breeding program to evaluate the extent of bias, assess possible corrections, and emit hypotheses on its origin. The data set included 7 traits (milk yield, fat and protein contents, somatic cell score, teat angle, udder cleft, and udder depth) with records from 600,000 to 5 million depending on the trait, ～1,900,000 animals, and ～5,900 genotyped elite artificial insemination rams. For the ～8% animals with missing sire, we fit 25 unknown parent groups. We used the linear regression method to compare “partial” and “whole” predictions of young rams before and after progeny testing, with 7 cut-off points, and we obtained estimates of their bias, (over)dispersion, and accuracy in early proofs. We tried (1) several scenarios as follows: multiple or single trait, the “official” (routine) evaluation, which is a mixture of both single and multiple trait, and “deletion” of data before 1990; and (2) several models as follows: BLUP and single-step genomic (SSG)BLUP with fixed unknown parent groups or metafounders, where, for metafounders, their relationship matrix gamma was estimated using either a model for inbreeding trend, or base allele frequencies estimated by peeling. The estimate of gamma obtained by modeling the inbreeding trend resulted in an estimated increase of inbreeding, based on markers, faster than the pedigree-based one. The estimated genetic trends were similar for most models and scenarios across all traits, but were shrunken when gamma was estimated by peeling. This was due to shrinking of the estimates of metafounders in the latter case. Across scenarios, all traits showed bias, generally as an overestimate of genetic trend for milk yield and an underestimate for the other traits. As for the slope, it showed overdispersion of estimated breeding values for all traits. Using multiple-trait models slightly reduced the overestimate of genetic trend and the overdispersion, as did including genomic information (i.e., SSGBLUP) when the gamma matrix was estimated by the model for inbreeding trend. However, only deletion of historical data before 1990 resulted in elimination of both kind of biases. The SSGBLUP resulted in more accurate early proofs than BLUP for all traits. We considered that a snowball effect of small errors in each genetic evaluation, combined with selection, may have resulted in biased evaluations. Improving statistical methods reduced some bias but not all, and a simple solution for this data set was to remove historical records.     

Liquefaction behavior of fiber-reinforced calcareous sands in unidirectional and multidirectional simple shear tests

A study on the liquefaction resistance of calcareous sands reinforced with polypropylene fibers was reported. Stress-controlled cyclic simple shear tests were conducted on specimens prepared at a relative density of 50%, with and without fiber reinforcements. The liquefaction behavior was investigated by considering the effects of fiber contents ranging from 0% to 1%, fiber lengths varying from 3 mm to 12 mm and loading patterns. The results indicated that increasing fiber content and fiber length resulted in a decrease in the deformation, a reduction in pore pressure accumulation rate, and improved the liquefaction resistance of calcareous sands. Additionally, the risk of soil liquefaction could be significantly reduced when the fiber content was greater than 0.8%. The multidirectional loading had a considerable effect in reducing the liquefaction resistance compared to unidirectional loading. Further, the stiffness degradation of calcareous sands decreased with increasing fiber content and fiber length. The pore pressure generated in the cyclic tests was analyzed and was found to be affected by fiber content. A pore pressure prediction model was proposed to obtain the pore pressure characteristics of fiber-reinforced calcareous sands under various fiber content conditions.     

Novel energy-saving window coating based on F doped TiO2 nanocrystals with enhanced NIR shielding performance

To reduce the energy consumption of cooling in the hot summer days, searching for novel NIR shielding materials for buildings is of great value. In this report, monodispersed F doped TiO₂ nanocrystals with an average size of 8.6 nm were synthesized as novel solar shielding materials for energy-saving windows. All the products adopted an anatase TiO₂ structure. After doping of F ions, the morphology of TiO₂ was transformed from an irregular shape to a pseudospherical shape. The Raman shift and XPS depth analysis confirmed the successful doping of F⁻ ions into the lattice oxygen sites in the TiO₂ structure. The introduction of F⁻ ions generated free electrons and bulk Ti³⁺ in TiO₂ crystals, which activated a localized surface plasmon resonance (LSPR) absorption in the NIR region. Correspondingly, the NIR shielding performance of the TiO₂ films improved with increasing F doping amounts. The NIR shielding value of the films increased from 1.3% to 43.2% when the molar ratio of F to Ti increased from 0 to 0.3. The reason can be attributed to the enhanced NIR absorption induced by the increased electron concentration after doping of fluorine ions. The F–TiO₂ films showed superior visible transmittance (90.1–96.7%). Moreover, the F–TiO₂ films lowered the indoor temperature of the heat box by 5.3 °C in the thermal tests. Overall, the prepared F–TiO₂ nanocrystals show a great potential to be used for energy-saving windows.     

A novel multi-objective optimization method: Input values effect on responses (IVER)

In this study, a novel multi-objective optimization method based on the best effect of unique input (independent variable) values on responses (dependent variables) was proposed. The proposed method was compared with optimization using Derringer & Suich function that is still the most used. The comparison was made using the response values measured in real experiments and available in the literature. The advantages of the proposed method such as not needing the polynomial model aiming to predict the response values, no parameter selection problem, being able to offer optimum range instead of single optimum value, being suitable for use with existing experimental designs and being simple and interpretable were demonstrated as a result of comparison. It was also suggested how the proposed method will be effective according to experimental designs, and application for the users' application was presented.     

基于LBT-SA的LoRaWAN信道接入方法研究

标准LoRaWAN协议中定义的纯ALOHA信道接入方法在网络负载较大时会造成大量碰撞，使LoRa网络的可扩展性和可靠性受到极大挑战。为此提出了一种将先听后说与模拟退火相结合（Listen Before Talk combined with Simulated Annealing，LBT-SA）的LoRa信道接入方法。该方法通过在设备发送之前先监听信道，降低信道被同时接入的概率，并以成功传输所需退避时间为初始值，搜索更小的退避时间。仿真结果表明，LBT-SA和基于二元指数退避算法的先听后说（Listen Before Talk，LBT）方法在包成功传输率方面保持了高度的一致，并且LBT-SA在周期传输过程中逐渐减少了不必要的退避时间，从而减少了时延。在多达10 000个终端接入单个网关的场景中，该算法的平均退避时间至少降低了16.38%。