2019年黑龙江省猪肉市场运行情况分析

2018年非洲猪瘟疫情出现以来,全国及黑龙江省生猪生产、猪肉市场受到了较大的影响,生猪、能繁母猪存栏减少,生猪出场价格也经历了明显波动。2019年春节以后,随着省外调出量增加和猪源减少,黑龙江省生猪出场价格进入上升通道,超过了全国平均水平,白条猪肉批发价格和猪肉市场零售价格随之上行。通过对2019年黑龙江省生猪生产环节、屠宰加工环节、猪肉市场零售环节进行调研,对生猪出场价格、白条猪肉批发价格、猪肉零售价格、生猪和能繁母猪产能等指标进行分析,阐述了以生猪和猪肉市场为重点的肉类产销形势,为促进肉类产业高质量发展、提高市场保供能力提供参考。     

Domestic demand-side response with heat pumps: controls and tariffs

ABSTRACT

Electric heat pumps feature prominently in projected energy transitions in the UK and elsewhere. Owing to their high electricity consumption, heat pumps are viewed as important targets for demand-side response (DSR). Findings are presented from a field trial of a new control system that aims to optimize heat pump performance, including under time-varying tariff conditions. The trial involved monitoring 76 properties with heat pumps, but without dedicated heat storage; 31 of these received the control system. Interviews were conducted with a subsample of 12 participants. The controller successfully evened out electricity demand over the day (reducing the evening peak), but this was associated with increased late night and daytime temperatures. Interview participants reported some disturbance owing to overnight heating and noise, as well as usability issues with the controller interface and hardware. These issues present risks to the future acceptability of such systems. While the system delivered short-term demand reductions successfully, longer-term demand shifting risked causing unacceptable disturbance to occupants. Future control systems could overcome some of the issues identified in this pioneering trial through more effective zoning, using temperature caps or installing dedicated heat storage, but these may either limit the available flexibility or be challenging to achieve.     

Testing the oil price efficiency using various measures of long-range dependence

In this paper, we empirically examine the application of a host of techniques employed to measure price efficiency through long-range dependence using prices of monthly oil contracts. Using a series of methods, we analyse the volatility (daily absolute returns) of WTI and Brent oil prices for nine different contracts with maturity, ranging from 1 to 9 months, during the sample period of 1990-2017. We use bootstrapping to compute the confidence interval of the parameter of long-range dependence. Our results indicate that on an average, there is no long-range dependence in the volatility of oil price contracts at least at the 10-percent level of significance. Moreover, our results of rolling estimates suggest that the normality assumption does not affect the results considerably, and the results are robust to different rolling window sizes. While the results of the efficiency index suggest that the efficiency of oil returns vary with time, the futures contracts for Brent oil are found to be less efficient compared to WTI oil. The long-term futures contracts are more efficient than short-term contracts.     

Financial development and energy consumption nexus in emerging economies

This study aims to examine the relationship between financial development, energy price, real income, and energy consumption in 17 emerging economies. In doing so, the financial development has been handled with three different dimensions (banking sector, stock market, and bond market) and the effects of each financial development dimension on energy consumption is investigated. For this purpose, the annual data of 1991–2015 are analyzed using the common correlated effect (CCE) estimator to take into account the cross-sectional dependence. The results show that bond market development is the most efficient dimension to reduce the energy consumption.     

我国如何实行天然气能量计量和计价

我国是世界上为数不多的使用天然气体积计量和计价的国家,在当前我国天然气资源供应多元化、市场需求旺盛、天然气体制和天然气价格改革不断深入、市场化竞争格局正在形成的大环境下,实行天然气能量计量和计价比以往任何时候都更为迫切。为此,在阐述我国实行天然气能量计量计价紧迫性的基础上,分析了我国天然气采用能量计量计价在计量界面、计量方法、计量单位、气价转换和管道运价等方面所面临的问题,并提出了实行天然气能量计量计价的解决办法和实施路径。研究结果表明:(1)我国天然气正进入资源供应多元化和国际化、体制改革不断深化、天然气价格和天然气交易市场化发展的新时期,迫切需要改革我国传统的天然气体积计量计价方式,实行天然气能量计量计价;(2)实行天然气能量计量计价应基于我国天然气能量计量标准体系并结合天然气产业链实际,优选切实可行的能量计量界面和计量方法 ;(3)以焦耳作为能量计量单位,按国家发展和改革委员会指定的天然气热值进行天然气体积价格向能量价格转换;(4)天然气管道运输应统一实行能量计量计价;(5)我国天然气能量计量计价宜在试点先行的基础上,按直供工业用户、非居民用户、居民用户的顺序逐步推进。     

俄罗斯天然气在东北地区的利用发展分析

中俄东线天然气即将引入中国,将对东北地区的天然气利用项目产生有力的推动作用,同时也将面临各种问题。为建立长期可持续发展资源供应体系,结合能源供需实际,讨论了俄气到来后,东北地区天然气未来的发展方向,并分析了存在的主要问题:①天然气自产不足,域外依存度高;②地域特点决定替代能源可有多种选择;③调峰困难且富余天然气难以处理;④天然气替代经济性差,价高难以承受。并针对矛盾点进行了总结,指出来源多元化和资源多样化才能可持续发展。明确东北地区宜以天然气作为过渡能源,并提出了适宜地区经济发展的天然气利用建议。     

输配电线路经济电流密度的探讨

通过建立年费用最小模型，得到通用简易的线路经济电流密度解析式，并结合我国现阶段的实际情况，考虑了输配电价、线路造价和贷款利率等参数的变化，给出了线路现阶段科学合理的经济电流密度值。     

我国两部制电价制度对天然气发电企业盈利能力的影响

上海、浙江和江苏等地陆续出台了两部制电价制度,以期解决天然气发电(以下简称气电)企业成本高、经营困难等问题。为了研究该电价制度对气电企业盈利能力的影响,在对比分析上述三地电价政策和实施效果的基础上,基于不同类型机组的三大经营指标(项目财务内部收益率、经济净现值、动态投资回收期),采用项目经济性分析模型探究了不同类型燃气电厂的经济性。研究结果表明:①现行两部制电价与单一制电价相比,电价水平小幅度下降,给企业经营带来了一定的冲击,但从长远看,则有利于形成可持续的发展机制;②两部制电价是各地政府经过充分调研和测算后根据该区具体情况制定的,在该政策下多数企业处于盈亏平衡点附近,综合条件优、管理水平高的企业能取得一定的盈利,反之则亏损;③当电量电价一定且大于盈亏平衡点时,企业效益随年利用小时数的增加而提升,反之则随年利用小时数的增加而降低。结论认为:①两部制电价能起到促进企业管理和技术水平提升,引导和鼓励电力投资的作用,符合我国电力体制改革的方向;②政策制定时应针对不同时期建成的项目加以区别对待,实现上网电价、天然气价格和供热蒸气价格的"三个联动";③应建立大数据平台,实行气网、电网联合调度;④发电企业应创新管理,降低电厂建设及维护成本,提升机组效率,降低气耗。     

A closed loop supply chain under retail price and product quality dependent demand

The importance of remanufacturing of used products, maintaining the same quality as new ones has been widely recognized in practice. In this paper, we address a closed loop supply chain where the manufacturer manufactures a product with a decent quality acceptable to customers, and sells it through a retailer in the market. A third party collects the used products from consumers and sends to the manufacturer. The manufacturer re-manufactures the used product and the quality of remanufactured product is the same as that of the manufactured one. For such a closed loop supply chain, we construct five different scenarios – centralized, decentralized or Nash game and three different Stackelberg games, led by the manufacturer, retailer and third party respectively. We compare the optimal results to find out the best decentralized scenario out of the four mentioned. A numerical example is taken to study the impacts of product quality on demand as well as optimal decisions and investigate sensitivity of some key model-parameters.     

工程实施阶段的风险规避——解读2013版《建设工程工程量清单计价规范》之合同价款调整

分析工程实施阶段影响合同价款调整的风险因素及风险分担的有关规定和风险出现时合同价款调整的计算方法。条理清晰,示例通俗易懂,可操作性强。