Deterministic and probabilistic ship pitch prediction using a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing,reinforcement learning and improved QRNN

The deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship motion is important for safe navigation and stable real-time operational control of ships at sea. However, the volatility and randomness of ship motion, the non-adaptive nature of single predictors and the poor coverage of quantile regression pose serious challenges to uncertainty prediction, making research in this field limited. In this paper, a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing, reinforcement learning and improved quantile regression neural network (QRNN) is proposed to explore the deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship pitch motion. To validate the performance of the proposed multi-predictor integrated prediction model, an experimental study is conducted with three sets of actual ship longitudinal motions during sea trials in the South China Sea. The experimental results indicate that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the proposed model of deterministic prediction are 0.0254°, 0.0359°, and 0.0188°, respectively. Taking series #2 as an example, the prediction interval coverage probabilities (PICPs) of the proposed model of probability predictions at 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence levels (CLs) are 0.9400, 0.9800, and 1.0000, respectively. This study signifies that the proposed model can provide trusted deterministic predictions and can effectively quantify the uncertainty of ship pitch motion, which has the potential to provide practical support for ship early warning systems.     

基于概要数据结构的全网络持续流检测方法

持续流是隐蔽的网络攻击过程中显现的一种重要特征，它不产生大量流量且在较长周期内有规律地发生，给传统的检测方法带来极大挑战。针对网络攻击的隐蔽性、单监测点的重负荷和信息有限的问题，提出全网络持续流检测方法。首先，设计一种概要数据结构，并将其部署在每个监测点；其次，当网络流到达监测点时，提取流的概要信息并更新概要数据结构的一位；然后，在测量周期结束时，主监测点将来自其他监测点的概要信息进行综合；最后，提出流持续性的近似估计，通过一些简单计算为每个流构建一个位向量，利用概率统计方法估计流持续性，使用修正后的持续性估计检测持续流。通过真实的网络流量进行实验，结果表明，与长持续时间流检测算法（TLF）相比，所提方法的准确性提高了50%，误报率和漏报率分别降低了22%和20%，说明全网络持续流检测方法能够有效监测高速网络流量。     

Specific emitter identification for satellite communication using probabilistic neural networks

Electromagnetic signal emitted by satellite communication (satcom) transmitters are used to identify specific individual uplink satcom terminals sharing the common transponder in real environment, which is known as specific emitter identification (SEI) that allows for early indications and warning (I&W) of the targets carrying satcom furnishment and furthermore the real time electromagnetic situation awareness in military operations. In this paper, the authors are the first to propose the identification of specific transmitters of satcom by using probabilistic neural networks (PNN) to reach the goal of target recognition. We have been devoted to the examination by exploring the feasibility of utilizing the Hilbert transform to signal preprocessing, applying the discrete wavelet transform to feature extraction, and employing the PNN to perform the classification of stationary signals. There are a total of 1000 sampling time series with binary phase shift keying (BPSK) modulation originated by five types of satcom transmitters in the test. The established PNNs classifier implements the data testing and finally yields satisfactory accuracy at 8 dB(±1 dB) carrier to noise ratio, which indicates the feasibility of our method, and even the keen insight of its application in military.     

Analysis of the steady state probability distribution of a manufacturing system under the prioritised hedging point control policy

In order to evaluate the average production cost of a multi-product-type, multi-stage and multi-parallel-machine manufacturing system (denoted as mP/mS/mM), one of the effective ways is to obtain its steady-state probability distribution. Because the two-product-type and multi-parallel-machine system that demand backlog is not allowed can be considered as a basic building block of the mP/mS/mM system, we begin by investigating the method of obtaining its steady-state probability distribution under the prioritised hedging point control policy. Although the shape of the distribution domains of the work-in-process (WIP) levels influences the steady-state probability balance equations, we develop a unified form of the marginal probability balance equations for all the possible shapes of distribution domains, which can be used to calculate the marginal probability distribution for each product type for the two-product-type and multi-parallel-machine system. Furthermore, we extend this analysis method to both the multiple-product-type, multi-parallel-machine, and single-stage system and the more complex mP/mS/mM system, and propose a method to obtain their approximate marginal probability distributions of the WIP levels. Finally, numerical experiments are conducted to verify the accuracy of the proposed method of analysing the steady-state probability distribution of an mP/mS/mM system.     

Study of the influence of notch radii and temperature on the probability of failure: A methodology to perform a combined assessment

The fracture assessment of notched components based on cracked components approaches leads to over‐conservative failure predictions. In the research literature, several approaches are proposed to overcome this problem using an apparent fracture toughness, . Nevertheless, most of these approaches are based on deterministic assumptions despite the large and variable scatter exhibited by for different notch radii (ρ) or temperatures (T). This paper proposes a methodology for deriving a probabilistic field including the effect of temperature on the failure of notched components. First, the theory of critical distances is applied to transform each apparent fracture toughness into the equivalent fracture toughness for ρ = 0. Then, the temperature is supposed to act as a scale effect in the Weibull cumulative distribution function of the equivalent fracture toughness, and the corresponding scale effect function is derived. Finally, the applicability of the proposed methodology is illustrated by an example using two ferritic‐pearlitic steels: S275JR and S355J2.     

一维—二维耦合的水库下游地区洪水演进数学模型及应用

针对水库下游地区河道洪水与漫堤洪水模拟需求,建立了一维—二维耦合的洪水演进数学模型。一维模型采用Pressimann格式离散求解,二维模型采用能够适应复杂几何形状和多种流态的Osher格式求解,一维—二维连接处采用堰流公式实现水流交互。应用该模型模拟白溪流域2015年"苏迪罗"台风实际洪水,可得到洪水在计算区域的演进过程和淹没情况。对比模拟结果与实际情况可知,该模型计算合理、准确,计算结果可为防汛部门防洪预案制定、防汛调度决策提供技术支撑。     

基于链路可靠性的两跳QoS路由

针对工业无线传感器网络对路由协议的QoS要求，研究了一种基于链路可靠性的两跳QoS路由（Link-Reliability Based Two-Hop Routing for QoS Guarantee in Industrial Wireless Sensor Networks， LRTHQR）.采用两跳速度策略和数据优先级调度策略提高实时性，采用改进的信任评估模型以选择可信路径进行路由，采用基于接收功率的链接概率和数据包重传次数作为衡量链路可靠性的指标，同时采用能够综合考虑节点剩余能量和转发能耗的转发策略，以改善网络寿命.仿真结果显示：与未考虑链路可靠性的NCSRT （NodeCredible Security Routing for IWSN Based on THTR）算法相比， LRTHQR算法在丢包率、时延以及包平均能耗方面有着明显优势；与同样侧重QoS要求的LRTHR （Link-Reliability based Two-Hop Routing）算法相比， LRTHQR算法在截止期错失率、路由开销以及包平均能耗方面有着显著提升.     

网络匿名扫描系统设计及优化

针对网络扫描工具在进行扫描时面临的溯源问题，提出了一种匿名网络扫描系统。首先将匿名系统与网络扫描工具结合以实现匿名扫描；然后在现有匿名系统的基础上实现了该系统的本地私有化；接着通过流量分析发现，Nmap的多进程扫描因为代理链的原因会变成单进程扫描而导致其扫描扫描性能较低；最后提出了一种基于多Namp进程并发的性能优化方案，将总体扫描任务分割为多个扫描任务，并分配给多个单独的Nmap进程并行运行。实验结果表明，该性能优化方案的扫描时延接近正常扫描情况下的时延，达到了提高匿名扫描系统性能的目的。因此，该优化后的网络匿名扫描系统在阻碍溯源的同时提升了扫描效率。     

车联网环境下基于节点认知交互的路由算法

针对车联网（IoV）环境下消息传输效率低下、网络资源开销较大等诸多问题，提出一种适用于城市交通场景下基于车辆节点认知交互的路由算法。首先，依据信任理论提出节点认知交互度的概念，并在此基础上对车联网中的车辆节点进行分类，赋予它们不同的认知交互度初值；同时还引入车辆节点交互时间、交互频率、车辆节点物理间隔距离、间隔跳数以及消息生存时间等影响因子，进而构建了车辆节点认知交互评估模型。基于该模型计算并更新节点的认知交互度，并通过比较对应车辆节点间的认知交互度值来选取认知交互度相对较高的邻居节点作为中继节点进行消息转发。仿真实验结果表明，与Epidemic和Prophet路由算法相比，所提路由算法有效提高了消息投递率并降低了消息投递时延，同时显著降低了网络资源的开销，有助于提升车联网环境的消息传输质量。