农村综合能源系统多层协同优化运行方法

农村综合能源系统通过多种能源的协同互补,在满足农村用户多元化用能需求的同时,能有效提升能源利用效率和用能经济性。首先,在考虑适应农村典型场景的基础上,提出了一种三层协同自律的农村综合能源分层协同运行优化框架。然后,基于农村综合能源系统典型设备,建立了三层农村综合能源系统源-储-荷联合优化调度模型以及相应的优化调度流程。调度模型中冬季通过对沼气发电机组的余热回收与空气源热泵协同对用户供热;夏季对沼气发电机组余热进行回收,并通过溴化锂制冷机与空气源热泵联合对农村用户供冷。最后,对农村综合能源系统多层协同优化方法进行了算例分析,结果表明该优化方法提高了农村居民用能的经济性,验证了所提方法的有效性。     

基于系统工程方法的HPR1000应急堆芯余热排出系统设计研究

为进一步提高核电厂的经济性与竞争力，基于系统工程方法，针对“华龙一号”核电机组（HPR1000）应急堆芯余热排出系统开展设计研究，综合考虑安全性、经济性以及技术成熟度等要求，以核电厂工程应用和核电厂整体技术指标最优为目标，构建系统评估指标体系，并运用层次分析法（AHP）分析应急堆芯余热排出系统的最优化设计方案。研究表明，取消汽动辅助给水系统，将非能动余热排出系统（PRS）的功能扩展至缓解预计运行事件和设计基准事故可能是HPR1000应急堆芯余热排出系统更为优化的方案。      

基于归一化水体指数及其阈值自适应算法的水体遥感反演效果分析

归一化水体指数（NDWI）是水体遥感反演的一种重要指标，其阈值及修正直接影响反演结果的精度。基于Landsat-8与GF-1光学多光谱影像，使用归一化水体指数法阈值0（TH₀）、最大类间方差法（OTSU）自适应阈值（TH_otsu）与均值漂移聚类算法（Mean-Shift）自适应阈值（TH_MS）分别对典型正常水体、云雾覆盖水体、富营养化水体、高含泥沙水体进行水体遥感提取与效果分析，结果表明：正常水体以TH₀为阈值提取精度最高，THMS提取精度次之，TH_otsu提取精度最差；而云雾覆盖水体、富营养化水体以及含泥沙水体使用THMS提取精度最高，尤其少量云雾覆盖下的水体，TH_MS具有更明显的优势，TH₀提取精度次之，TH_otsu提取精度最差；对于不同的阈值，Land?sat-8比GF-1总体表现出更高的水体提取精度。Mean-Shift算法应用于NDWI阈值修正与水体遥感反演具有快速、水质适应性强、效果稳定的优势，对尤其是复杂条件下的水体信息遥感反演具有较好的提取效果。     

Measurement of residual stresses in dissimilar friction stir-welded aluminium and copper plates using the contour method

The longitudinal residual stresses in the friction stir-welded plates of 5A06 aluminium and pure copper were determined using the contour method. The results revealed the presence of high tensile and compressive residual stresses on the aluminium and copper sides, respectively. The residual stresses were detected on the weld zone as well as the thermo-mechanically affected zone (TMAZ) of the aluminium plate. In contrast, the compressive residual stresses in the copper plate had a much narrower width along the weld line. Peak tensile stresses up to 240?MPa were found in the TMAZ of the aluminium plate.     

Kevlar织物软壁包容环抗冲击数值仿真分析研究

针对机匣包容性问题,提出Kevlar平纹织物本构模型的拟合方法,分别采用单层壳、多层壳、层合壳三种有限元建模方式对Kevlar织物软壁包容环弹道冲击过程进行模拟,发展了机匣包容性仿真分析模型。结果表明,多层壳模型和层合壳模型的计算结果更准确,并且可以通过调节摩擦因子使仿真结果与试验结果更接近。在此基础上研究了撞击点位置和弹体入射姿态对弹体剩余速度的影响。结果表明:在较小偏移距离内,撞击点的位置对剩余速度的影响可以忽略不计;滚转角和俯仰角对剩余速度影响较小,而对于偏航角,当角度大于30°时,剩余速度会随着角度的增大明显呈下降趋势,且弹体出射姿态也会发生明显变化。     

CO2注采井油管柱服役安全状态评价方法

针对CO₂注采井油管柱因腐蚀失效而频繁更换的问题，研究了适用于CO₂注采井井筒环境的CO₂腐蚀速率预测模型及管柱力学分析方法，分析讨论了CO₂注采井工况、产出液含水率等因素随时间的变化对CO₂注采井油管柱腐蚀速率及承受载荷的影响，结合管柱腐蚀剩余强度计算方法，建立了CO₂注采井油管柱服役安全状态评价方法，并进行了实例计算和比较。结果表明，针对CO₂注采井油管柱腐蚀预测，DW-95模型有较好的适用性，生产阶段为CO₂注采井腐蚀发生主要阶段及安全状态评价的主要对象；管柱安全服役时间与其腐蚀速率及承受载荷呈负相关，且管柱抗压安全服役时间为管柱最小安全服役时间，是安全状态评价的主要依据，以此为标准可确定管柱更换周期，优化CO₂注采井吞吐周期，指导现场安全生产。     

Responses of dairy cows with divergent residual feed intake as calves to metabolic challenges during midlactation and the nonlactating period

Residual feed intake (RFI) is defined as the difference between the actual and expected feed intake required to support animal maintenance and growth. Thus, a cow with a low RFI can obtain nutrients for maintenance and growth from a reduced amount of feed compared with a cow with a high RFI. Variation in RFI is underpinned by a combination of factors, including genetics, metabolism, thermoregulation and body composition; hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis responsiveness is also a possible contributor. Responses to 3 metabolic challenges were measured in lactating and nonlactating dairy cattle. Sixteen Holstein Friesian cows with phenotypic RFI measurements that were obtained during the growth period (188–220 d old) were grouped as either low-calfhood RFI (n = 8) or high-calfhood RFI (n = 8). An ACTH (2 µg/kg of body weight), insulin (0.12 U/kg), and epinephrine (a low dose of 0.1 µg/kg and a high dose of 1.6 µg/kg of epinephrine) challenge were each conducted during both midlactation (122 ± 23.4 d in milk) and the nonlactating period (dry period; approximately 38 d after cessation of milking). Cows were housed in metabolism stalls for the challenges and were fed a diet of alfalfa cubes ad libitum for at least 10 d before the experiment (lactating cows also were offered a total of 6 kg of dry matter/d of crushed wheat grain plus minerals fed as 3 kg of dry matter at each milking) and were fasted for 12 h before the challenges. The efficiency of conversion of feed into milk (the ratio of feed consumed to milk produced over the 7 d before the experiment) during midlactation was better (lower) in low-calfhood RFI cows, although dry matter intake did not differ between RFI groups. Low-calfhood RFI cows exhibited a lower plasma cortisol response to the ACTH challenge than high-calfhood RFI cows, particularly in midlactation (?15%). The low-calfhood RFI cows had a greater plasma insulin-like growth factor-1 response to the insulin challenge and plasma fatty acid response to epinephrine compared with the high-calfhood RFI cows. These data suggest that high-calfhood RFI cows exhibit a more responsive HPA axis. As divergence in RFI measured during growth is retained (although reduced) during lactation, it is possible that energy is used to respond to HPA axis activation at the expense of production in high-calfhood RFI dairy cattle during lactation and contributes to a decrease in overall feed use efficiency.     

宁夏红寺堡盆地隐伏古隆起成因机制及其对区域沙漠化的影响

目前对于青藏高原东北缘活动构造研究多集中于活动断裂带的活动性,而对夹持于其间的沉积盆地构造格架及活动性研究甚少。以夹持于烟筒山断裂与牛首山—罗山断裂之间的宁夏红寺堡盆地为研究对象,采用重力资料重处理解译、音频大地电磁测深(AMT)和地震勘探相结合,揭示红寺堡盆地隐伏构造特征,并进一步采用盆山一体化思路分析隐伏构造的成因机制及其对区域沙漠化的控制作用。结果表明:青藏高原在中新世末发生强烈的NE向推挤、扩展和隆升,红寺堡盆地由坳陷盆地转变为挠曲盆地; 在青藏高原NE向扩展的影响下,烟筒山断裂发生强烈的逆冲作用,古生代—中生代基底逆冲于古近系—新近系之上,受构造变形影响的最新地层为中新统彰恩堡组; 红寺堡盆地内的隐伏古隆起呈NW—SE向,与烟筒山构造带具有相同的构造动力学背景,受青藏高原NE向扩展影响形成于中新世末,并且至今仍具有活动性; 隐伏古隆起周缘断裂的活动破坏了地表稳定性、蓄水能力和地表植被,导致区域沙漠化呈现有规律的NW—SE向带状展布。该研究成果对于宁夏红寺堡盆地区域稳定性评价及沙漠化的综合治理具有现实指导意义。     

An expectation operator for belief functions in the Dempster–Shafer theory*

ABSTRACT

The main contribution of this paper is a new definition of expected value of belief functions in the Dempster–Shafer (D–S) theory of evidence. Our definition shares many of the properties of the expectation operator in probability theory. Also, for Bayesian belief functions, our definition provides the same expected value as the probabilistic expectation operator. A traditional method of computing expected of real-valued functions is to first transform a D–S belief function to a corresponding probability mass function, and then use the expectation operator for probability mass functions. Transforming a belief function to a probability function involves loss of information. Our expectation operator works directly with D–S belief functions. Another definition is using Choquet integration, which assumes belief functions are credal sets, i.e. convex sets of probability mass functions. Credal sets semantics are incompatible with Dempster's combination rule, the center-piece of the D–S theory. In general, our definition provides different expected values than, e.g. if we use probabilistic expectation using the pignistic transform or the plausibility transform of a belief function. Using our definition of expectation, we provide new definitions of variance, covariance, correlation, and other higher moments and describe their properties.     

顶空-气相色谱法测定食品接触材料中14种溶剂残留量

建立顶空-气相色谱法测定食品接触材料（纸基食品接触材料和涂漆筷子等）中14种溶剂残留量的前处理分析方法。方法 通过优化溶剂基质和体积、氮气和空气、样品面积和碎片大小等前处理条件，实现了对14种溶剂残留量的常规、快速分析。结果 14种溶剂残留量在0.01~6.40 mg/m2浓度范围内, 线性相关系数均大于0.9970，方法检出限为0.01mg/m2。结论 建立了适用于纸基食品接触材料和涂漆筷子等食品接触材料前处理方法和仪器分析方法，对食品接触材料产品研究和提高企业产品质量提供依据。