Assessment of the different sources of uncertainty in a SWAT model of the River Senne (Belgium)

Although rainfall input uncertainties are widely identified as being a key factor in hydrological models, the rainfall uncertainty is typically not included in the parameter identification and model output uncertainty analysis of complex distributed models such as SWAT and in maritime climate zones. This paper presents a methodology to assess the uncertainty of semi-distributed hydrological models by including, in addition to a list of model parameters, additional unknown factors in the calibration algorithm to account for the rainfall uncertainty (using multiplication factors for each separately identified rainfall event) and for the heteroscedastic nature of the errors of the stream flow. We used the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis algorithm (DREAM_(zs)) to infer the parameter posterior distributions and the output uncertainties of a SWAT model of the River Senne (Belgium). Explicitly considering heteroscedasticity and rainfall uncertainty leads to more realistic parameter values, better representation of water balance components and prediction uncertainty intervals.     

Friction compensation controller for load varying machine tool feed drive

The load applied to a machine tool feed drive changes during the machining process as material is removed. This load change alters the Coulomb friction of the feed drive. Because Coulomb friction accounts for a large part of the total friction the friction compensation control accuracy of the feed drives is limited if this nonlinear change in the applied load is not considered. This paper presents a new friction compensation method that estimates the machine tool load in real time and considers its effect on friction characteristics. A friction observer based on a Kalman filter with load estimation is proposed for friction compensation control considering the applied load change. A specially designed feed drive testbed that enables the applied load to be modified easily was constructed for experimental verification. Control performance and friction estimation accuracy are demonstrated experimentally using the testbed.     

Automated network management and configuration using Probabilistic Trans-Algorithmic Search

Online configuration of large-scale systems such as networks requires parameter optimization within a limited amount of time, especially when configuration is needed as a response to recover from a failure in the system. To quickly configure such systems in an online manner, we propose a Probabilistic Trans-Algorithmic Search (PTAS) framework which leverages multiple optimization search algorithms in an iterative manner. PTAS applies a search algorithm to determine how to best distribute available experiment budget among multiple optimization search algorithms. It allocates an experiment budget to each available search algorithm and observes its performance on the system-at-hand. PTAS then probabilistically reallocates the experiment budget for the next round proportional to each algorithm’s performance relative to the rest of the algorithms. This “roulette wheel” approach probabilistically favors the more successful algorithm in the next round. Following each round, the PTAS framework “transfers” the best result(s) among the individual algorithms, making our framework a trans-algorithmic one. PTAS thus aims to systematize how to “search for the best search” and hybridize a set of search algorithms to attain a better search. We use three individual search algorithms, i.e., Recursive Random Search (RRS) (Ye and Kalyanaraman, 2004), Simulated Annealing (SA) (Laarhoven and Aarts, 1987), and Genetic Algorithm (GA) (Goldberg, 1989), and compare PTAS against the performance of RRS, GA, and SA. We show the performance of PTAS on well-known benchmark objective functions including scenarios where the objective function changes in the middle of the optimization process. To illustrate applicability of our framework to automated network management, we apply PTAS on the problem of optimizing link weights of an intra-domain routing protocol on three different topologies obtained from the Rocketfuel dataset. We also apply PTAS on the problem of optimizing aggregate throughput of a wireless ad hoc network by tuning datarates of traffic sources. Our experiments show that PTAS successfully picks the best performing algorithm, RRS or GA, and allocates the time wisely. Further, our results show that PTAS’ performance is not transient and steadily improves as more time is available for search.     

灵芝菌丝体多糖的分离纯化及其单糖组成分析与分子量测定

前期杂交优化后赤芝菌种经液体深层发酵后,提取灵芝菌丝体多糖,并过DEAE-Sepharose Fast Flow柱分离纯化,利用高效体积排阻色谱(HPSEC)检测多糖级分的纯度,采用完全酸水解PMP柱前衍生化RP—HPLC测定多糖级分的单糖组成,多角度光散射仪联用装置(SEC—MALLS)测定其绝对重均分子量(Mw),并且根据分子旋转半径与分子摩尔数的关系曲线斜率初步推断其空间构象。结果显示:分离纯化得到3个多糖级分GLMP1、GLMP2和GLMP3,HPSEC检测其峰面积百分比分别为93.58%,97.64%,99.19%,单糖组成分析结果表明GLMP1、GLMP2和GLMP3均含有甘露糖、鼠李糖、半乳糖醛酸、葡萄糖、半乳糖、木糖、阿拉伯糖和岩藻糖,但单糖摩尔比各异。SEC—MALLS测试GLMP1、GLMP2和GLMP3的Mw分别为4.526×105,4.603×104,3.760×103 g/mol,3个多糖级分构象可能均为高度紧缩且具有分支结构的聚合物。     

Parameter Uncertainty and Policy Intensity: Some Extensions and Suggestions for Further Work

The effects of parameter uncertainty on optimal policy have been a matter of interest for academics, and even for some policymakers, for a long time. Two lines of literature have developed analytical results on this matter. The first line uses static models and the second dynamic models. In this dynamic line most of the results are confined to models with a single state and a single control variable. In this paper we want to encourage the analysis of more general dynamic cases. To do so, the results in the dynamic line are extended from one-state and one-control finite horizon models to models with a pair of control variables. We then discuss some of the hurdles which must be surmounted for the results to be made more general and suggests some lines for further research. JEL classification: C61; E61     

（2m，2，m）非线性等重码不是最佳检错码

本文证明了当ｍ＞４时（２ｍ，２，ｍ）非线性等重码不是最佳检错码。     

超高分子量聚乙烯的辐照效应

通过密度测定和ＤＳＣ热分析，观测了超高分子量聚乙烯的辐射效应。实验结果表明：在吸收剂量０—１．１３ＭＧｙ范围内，密度随吸收剂量的增加而增大，熔化热和熔点也有所增加，特别是在低剂量范围内增加十分明显。以上结果都说明，超高分子量聚乙烯在辐照过程中，结晶在完善或有新的结晶形成     

Intramolecular crosslinking of poly(vinyl alcohol)

Poly(vinyl alcohol) is crosslinked in dilute solution (c=0.1 wt%) with glutaraldehyde. The reaction product is characterized by viscometry and gel permeation chromatography (g.p.c.). The intrinsic viscosity decreases with increasing degree of crosslinking and does not depend on temperature. G.p.c. reveals that the reaction product is not homogeneous, but consists of a mixture of particles with different sizes, possibly both intra- and intermolecularly crosslinked molecules. The intramolecularly crosslinked molecules are smaller in size than the initial polymer molecules and their size depends on the degree of crosslinking. They possess a narrow particle size distribution even if the initial polymer sample had a broad molecular weight distribution.     

Information systems and uncertainty: a conspiracy of misplaced confidence

Abstract. Information technology is becoming an increasingly important factor in contemporary management. Information systems are being set up in business explicitly to accommodate the new opportunities of this technology, and these are having a lasting effect on managerial practice. The full implications of this technology-driven development have not been appreciated by organizations, which in absorbing technological systems, are tolerating a great drain on their resources.
The efficacy of computers is predicated on the acceptance of some very specific perspectives. A growing discontent and disappointment with their limited achievements is our reason for advocating a different point of view. We will discuss how a shift in perspective, particularly in respect to the perception of uncertainty, will affect thinking and practice in the field of management support systems. We will render our view of the application of computerized decision support systems (DSS), and especially, we will focus on the beliefs and assumptions that have shaped this technology thus far. To this end we will discuss the concept of uncertainty, by juxtaposing current thinking and practice with our understanding of the context of its application. Finally, we will place our understanding of uncertainty in a managerial context and explain the implications this would have for strategists.