Nonparametric bootstrapping of the reliability function for multiple copies of a repairable item modeled by a birth process

Nonparametric bootstrap inference is developed for the reliability function estimated from censored, nonstationary failure time data for multiple copies of repairable items. We assume that each copy has a known, but not necessarily the same, observation period; and upon failure of one copy, design modifications are implemented for all copies operating at that time to prevent further failures arising from the same fault. This implies that, at any point in time, all operating copies will contain the same set of faults. Failures are modeled as a birth process because there is a reduction in the rate of occurrence at each failure. The data structure comprises a mix of deterministic & random censoring mechanisms corresponding to the known observation period of the copy, and the random censoring time of each fault. Hence, bootstrap confidence intervals & regions for the reliability function measure the length of time a fault can remain within the item until realization as failure in one of the copies. Explicit formulae derived for the re-sampling probabilities greatly reduce dependency on Monte-Carlo simulation. Investigations show a small bias arising in re-sampling that can be quantified & corrected. The variability generated by the re-sampling approach approximates the variability in the underlying birth process, and so supports appropriate inference. An illustrative example describes application to a problem, and discusses the validity of modeling assumptions within industrial practice.     

Agglomeration and networks in spatial economies

We consider the parallel developments in the economics of agglomeration and the economics of networks. We explore the complementarities between the productivity benefits of agglomeration and those of network linkages, arguing that networks of actors dispersed over space may substitute for agglomerations of actors at a single point.JEL Classification: D20, L14, R30     

Successful Aging

This issue's Works in Progress department presents six abstracts for projects that are developing interesting solutions to the elderly's quality of life challenges. The first two abstracts discuss projects that will help provide the elderly with freedom and independence by instrumenting their environments with supportive technology. The next two abstracts discuss projects building specialized user interfaces for addressing some of the challenges associated with aging, such as vision impairment. The final two abstracts present projects that will aid independence for the elderly by providing remote monitoring and assistance.     

Interoceptive Sensitivity and Self-Reports of Emotional Experience.

People differ in the extent to which they emphasize feelings of activation or deactivation in their verbal reports of experienced emotion, termed arousal focus (AF). Two multimethod studies indicate that AF is linked to heightened interoceptive sensitivity (as measured by performance on a heartbeat detection task). People who were more sensitive to their heartbeats emphasized feelings of activation and deactivation when reporting their experiences of emotion over time more than did those who were less sensitive. This relationship was not accounted for by several other variables, including simple language effects. Implications for the role of interoception in experienced emotion and the validity of self-reported emotion are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

A taxonomy for and analysis of multi-person-display ecosystems

Interactive displays are increasingly being distributed in a broad spectrum of everyday life environments: they have very diverse form factors and portability characteristics, support a variety of interaction techniques, and can be used by a variable number of people. The coupling of multiple displays creates an interactive “ecosystem of displays”. Such an ecosystem is suitable for particular social contexts, which in turn generates novel settings for communication and performance and challenges in ownership. This paper aims at providing a design space that can inform the designers of such ecosystems. To this end, we provide a taxonomy that builds on the size of the ecosystem and on the degree of individual engagement as dimensions. We recognize areas where physical constraints imply certain kinds of social engagement, versus other areas where further work on interaction techniques for coupling displays can open new design spaces.     

Risk factors for noncompliance with glaucoma follow-up visits in a residents' eye clinic

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to identify factors associated with compliance with glaucoma follow-up visits. DESIGN: Computer records of a university residents' eye clinic were reviewed to identify a random sample of all persons who had an examination with International Classification of Disease (ICD) 9 coding (ICD9) for glaucoma suspect or glaucoma during a 2-year period (1991-1993) to undergo telephone interview. PARTICIPANTS: Those who were seen at least every 6 months regardless of earlier return instructions were defined as compliant with follow-up (controls, n = 362). Those who had any lapse between visits of longer than 6 months were defined as noncompliant (cases, n = 362). RESULTS: Interviews were completed for 196 cases and 242 controls. Noncompliant persons were significantly more likely to be suspects for glaucoma rather than to have definite glaucoma and to be dissatisfied with waiting time in the clinic (29.1% vs. 17.8%, P < 0.005) and to state that they did not take their glaucoma medications as prescribed (25.4% vs. 13.4%, P < 0.004). They also were less likely to have been prescribed eyedrop medication. A high percentage of both patients and controls knew that glaucoma can lead to blindness (85.2% and 88.4%, respectively). The most common reasons patients gave for not keeping follow-up visits were the perception that their eye problem was "not serious enough," the cost of examinations, and that the doctor did not tell them to come back. CONCLUSION: Compliance with follow-up visits for glaucoma is associated with markers for early disease. Attempts to improve compliance might focus on improved communication of the seriousness of the disease and improvements in clinic waiting time.     

Situvis: A sensor data analysis and abstraction tool for pervasive computing systems

Pervasive systems are large-scale systems consisting of many sensors capturing numerous types of information. As this data is highly voluminous and dimensional, data analysis tasks can be extremely cumbersome and time-consuming. Enabling computers to recognise real-world situations is an even more difficult problem, involving not only data analysis, but also consistency checking. Here we present Situvis, an interactive visualisation tool for representing sensor data and creating higher-level abstractions from the data. This paper builds on previous work, Clear et al. (2009) [8] through evolved tool functionality and an evaluation of Situvis. A user-trial consisting of 10 participants shows that Situvis can be used to complete the key tasks in the development process of situation specifications in over 50% less time than an improvised alternative toolset.