Targeting attention on local vulnerabilities using an integrated index approach: the example of the climate vulnerability index.

It is known that climate impacts can have significant effects on the environment, societies and economies. For human populations, climate change impacts can be devastating, giving rise to economic disruption and mass migration as agricultural systems fail, either through drought or floods. Such events impact significantly, not only where they happen, but also in the neighbouring areas. Vulnerability to the impacts of climate change needs to be assessed, so that adaptation strategies can be developed and populations can be protected. In this paper, we address the issue of vulnerability assessment through the use of an indicator approach, the climate vulnerability index (CVI). We show how this can overcome some of the difficulties of incommensurability associated with the combination of different types of data, and how the approach can be applied at a variety of scales. Through the development of nested index values, more reliable and robust coverage of large areas can be achieved, and we provide an indication of how this could be done. While further work is required to improve the methodology through wider application and component refinement, it seems likely that this approach will have useful application in the assessment of climate vulnerability. Through its application at sub-national and community scales, the CVI can help to identify those human populations most at risk from climate change impacts, and as a result, resources can be targeted towards those most in need.     

Application of the Water Poverty Index at Different Scales: A Cautionary Tale

Abstract

The Water Poverty Index is an integrated tool developed on the basis of extensive consultation with a range of scientists, practitioners and policymakers. It is primarily designed for use at the community level to enable more holistic water-resource assessments on a site-specific basis. It can however be applied at different scales to suit different needs. One of the motivations to design such a tool was an attempt to move away from the conventional, purely deterministic, approaches to water assessment, relying primarily on models and large-scale data. In today's world such an approach is inappropriate, ill representing the complexities of modern water-allocation decisions where economic, political and social issues all have a powerful role to play. This paper highlights some applications of the Water Poverty Index at different spatial scales and discusses the implications of applying indicators at these different scales.     

Natural skin coating of the apple and its influence on scald in storage III.—α-farnesene

In a study of apple fruits grown under English conditions it was found that at the time of the respiratory climacteric the concentration of α-farnesene in the waxy skin coating began to increase rapidly from a low level and at 12° reached a peak after about 30 days. in the relative amounts of farnesene produced there was little to distinguish the scald-resistant from the scald-sensitive apple variety. Under the various conditions of low-temperature storage in use, it was found that the farnesene content of the skin was most influenced by the nature of the atmosphere, whether air or 8% CO₂, white the farnesene content of the waxy skin coating was more responsive to delay at room temperature before storage, diphenylamine treatment or wrapping in oiled wraps. The results are discussed in relation to the theory that farnesene is a chemical factor in the induction of superficial scald.     

The natural skin coating of the apple and its influence on scald in storage. II. Free fatty acids and carbonyl compounds

Analytical results suggest that the free acids of the waxy coating of the apple have no influence on the incidence of superficial scald in cold-stored fruit. Treatment of fruit with various free and esterified acids had no marked influence on scald, which suggests that oxidation products of these acids are also unconnected with scald. A long-chain fatty aldehyde was found to be present in the wax. Two methods of scald prevention, wrapping in oiled paper and dipping in diphenylamine solution, were found to reduce the accumulation of this aldehyde in the waxy coating during storage. The evidence suggests that the scald-promoting factor is formed in the waxy coating of the fruit by an oxidative process during storage, rather than by direct natural synthesis.     

Nonyl alcohol vapour in potato stores during sprout suppression. II.—Physical factors in the uptake of nonyl alcohol vapour by potato tubers

A study was made of some physical factors which influence the uptake by potato tubers of nonyl alcohol, used for sprout suppression in commercial storage. The saturation concentration of nonyl alcohol vapour in air was determined over the relevant temperature range. Investigation of the interactions between potato tubers and mixtures of air, nonyl alcohol vapour and water vapour showed that the tubers reached equilibrium with the alcohol vapour most rapidly in dry air at the higher of two temperatures investigated. The weight of alcohol taken up by the tuber was greater in dry air and was proportional to the square of the applied alcohol vapour concentration. A sudden rise in humidity caused a rapid release of some alcohol from a treated tuber, while a drop in humidity caused a rather slower uptake. The results suggest that part of the nonyl alcohol is absorbed by the bulk of the potato and part adsorbed on the surface of the skin. The relevance of the results to commercial potato storage practice is discussed.     

Probabilistic 8-day rainfall estimates for the Sanaga basin,Cameroon

A method has been developed to produce 8-day forecasts or estimates of future rainfall over the 132 000 km² Sanaga basin in Cameroon. The estimates provide the input to a real-time flow management system which determines optimum reservoir releases to achieve expected power demands, and thereby tries to make the most effective possible use of the water resources of the basin. Attempting to forecast deterministically for up to 8 days ahead was not thought to be practicable, and a probabilistic approach was taken instead. This means that each forecast is associated with a reliability or probability of exceedance. In the initial technique, based on an analysis of historic data, the forecasts are determined by the date only. An additional forecasting method was also developed which includes the current position of the FIT (the local name for the ITCZ) as a causative factor but still maintains the forecasts on a probabilistic basis. This uses the variation of the FIT from its usual position for the time of year to determine whether the forecast rainfall should be greater or less than the standard forecast for that date, and so includes some ability to take account of the variability of rainfall. The forecasting system is believed to be a novel approach to a problem which has not been tackled before. While far from providing a complete solution to the problem of rainfall forecasting in real-time basin management, it does illustrate an approach that can be attempted in the absence of reliable deterministic techniques.     

Effect of low concentrations of oxygen on the production of ethylene and on other ripening changes in apple fruit

When apples were stored at 12° in atmospheres deficient in oxygen it was found that the onset of the climacteric, as indicated by ethylene evolution, was progressively retarded the lower the oxygen content. from the point of view of horticultural technique, One disadvantage of storage in low-oxygen atmospheres at high temperature lay in the tendency for the fruit to begin alcoholic fermentation.     

A Grid-Based Approach to Water Scarcity Estimates for Eastern and Southern Africa

A novel approach is taken to the problem of estimating global water scarcity, using a realistic and consistent procedure applied across many countries. Water demands, surface flows and groundwater availability are estimated on a gridded basis, and various water availability indices are derived comparing the resource with the projected demand. Surface flows are estimated using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model linking climate to runoff and, in the major river basins, the runoff estimates for individual grid cells are accumulated to give estimates for the total flows at all points of interest. Groundwater availability is derived from hydrogeological maps based on estimates of the potential yield that can be expected from a borehole and the likely maximum borehole density. Estimates of potential groundwater recharge derived from the surface water model are also taken into account. Water demands are based on current and projected population and livestock numbers, and information on irrigation schemes and industrial water use. Results are presented for the application of the model to a region covering the whole of eastern and southern Africa. The main scenario considered includes the combined impact of climate change, population growth and improved living standards to the year 2050. The results for this scenario show that water scarcity is likely to increase in many countries in the region, with particular problems in the countries around Lake Victoria and in the southernmost parts of the pilot region.     

Integration of the biophysical and social sciences using an indicator approach: Addressing water problems at different scales

To be operationally sustainable, any system of environmental management needs to be based on a truly holistic assessment of all of the relevant factors influencing it. This is of course a daunting task, demanding as it does detailed and reliable data, not only from both the physical and social sciences, but also incorporating some representation of that part of knowledge which could be described as non-scientific. This could be said to include the uncertainties of market forces and political will, as well as traditional knowledge systems, and artistic representation. Recognising the limitations of our own knowledge system is important if we are to make progress in the achievement of sustainability. The development of less deterministic models is a step forward in that direction. This paper provides some discussion on the challenges associated with the integration of data from different disciplines, and the application of that data at different scales. Alternative approaches to the assessment of water resources for policy making are highlighted, and the validity of using such assessments at different scales is discussed. Using the Water Poverty Index as illustration, examples are provided of how an integrated assessment framework can be used to provide consistency and transparency in decision-making, and how this can, in practice, be applied at a variety of scales. It is with regret that we announce that Dr. Jeremy Meigh died in February 2006.     

Natural skin coating of the apple and its influence on scald in storage: IV.—Oxidation products of α-farnesene

Among the products of aerial oxidation of a-farnesene are carbonyl compounds of lower molecular weight. Several of these have been analysed, as free compounds or derivatives, with the aid of gas chromatography and mass spectrometry. Some of the identified compounds are known to have no effect on scald but three of them, pyruvaldehyde, methyl vinyl ketone and 6-methyl-5-hepten-2-one, require further study.