Economic-demographic models for forecasting interregional migration

"A class of spatial economic-demographic forecasting models is proposed. The models combine elements of traditional Markov and economic gravity models. A base-period probability structure is modified by the changing relative distribution of economic opportunity. Estimation issues are addressed, and an empirical application to US interstate migration during the late 1970s is described. It is contended that the framework represents a merger of past demographic and economic modeling traditions in a spatial interaction framework."     

Natural versus wastewater derived dissolved organic carbon: implications for the environmental fate of organic micropollutants

The interaction of organic micropollutants with dissolved organic carbon (DOC) can influence their transport, degradation and bioavailability. While this has been well established for natural organic carbon, very little is known regarding the influence of DOC on the fate of micropollutants during wastewater treatment and water recycling. Dissolved organic carbon-water partition coefficients (K_DOC) for wastewater derived and reference DOC were measured for a range of micropollutants using a depletion method with polydimethylsiloxane disks. For micropollutants with an octanol-water partition coefficient (log K_OW) greater than 4 there was a significant difference in K_DOC between reference and wastewater derived DOC, with partitioning to wastewater derived DOC over 1000 times lower for the most hydrophobic micropollutants. The interaction of nonylphenol with wastewater derived DOC from different stages of a wastewater and advanced water treatment train was studied, but little difference in K_DOC was observed. Organic carbon characterisation revealed that reference and wastewater derived DOC had very different properties due to their different origins. Consequently, the reduced sorption capacity of wastewater derived DOC may be related to their microbial origin which led to reduced aromaticity and lower molecular weight. This study suggests that for hydrophobic micropollutants (log K_OW > 4) a higher concentration of freely dissolved and thus bioavailable micropollutants is expected in the presence of wastewater derived DOC than predicted using K_DOC values quantified using reference DOC. The implication is that naturally derived DOC may not be an appropriate surrogate for wastewater derived DOC as a matrix for assessing the fate of micropollutants in engineered systems.     

Increased sediment oxygen uptake caused by oxygenation-induced hypolimnetic mixing

Hypolimnetic oxygenation systems (HOx) are increasingly used in lakes and reservoirs to elevate dissolved oxygen (O₂) while preserving stratification, thereby decreasing concentrations of reduced chemical species in the hypolimnion. By maintaining an oxic zone in the upper sediment, HOx suppress fluxes of reduced soluble species from the sediment into the overlying water. However, diminished HOx performance has been observed due to HOx-induced increases in sediment O₂ uptake. Based on a series of in situ O₂ microprofile and current velocity measurements, this study evaluates the vertical O₂ distribution at the sediment-water interface as a function of HOx operation. These data were used to determine how sediment O₂ uptake rate (JO₂) and sediment oxic-zone depth (z_max) were affected by applied oxygen-gas flow rate, changes in near-sediment mixing and O₂ concentration, and proximity to the HOx. The vertical sediment-water O₂ distribution was found to be strongly influenced by oxygenation on a reservoir-wide basis. Elevated JO₂ and an oxic sediment zone were maintained during continuous HOx operation, with z_max increasing linearly with HOx flow rate. In contrast, JO₂ decreased to zero and the sediment became anoxic as the vertical O₂ distribution at the sediment-water interface collapsed during periods when the HOx was turned off and near-sediment mixing and O₂ concentrations decreased. JO₂ and z_max throughout the reservoir were found to be largely governed by HOx-induced mixing rather than O₂ levels in the water column. By quantifying how JO₂ and z_max vary in response to HOx operations, this work (1) characterizes how hypolimnetic oxygenation affects sediment O₂ dynamics, (2) contributes to the optimization of water quality and management of HOx-equipped lakes and reservoirs, and (3) enhances understanding of the effect of mixing and O₂ concentrations in other systems.     

PAHs in sediments of the Black River and the Ashtabula River, Ohio: source apportionment by factor analysis

Sources of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the Black River and Ashtabula River sediments were apportioned using a factor analysis (FA) model with nonnegative constraints. Source profiles, contributions (microg/g) and percent contributions are determined with no prior knowledge of sources. The FA model includes scaling and backscaling of data with average PAH concentrations, without sample normalization. The present work is a follow-up to studies that used a chemical mass balance model to apportion sources to the same data sets. Literature source profiles, modified based on gas/particle partitioning of individual PAHs, from nine PAH sources were considered for comparison. FA results for a three-source solution indicate traffic (58%), coke oven (26%), and wood burning/coal tar (16%) are the primary PAH sources to Black River sediments. The primary PAH sources to the Ashtabula River sediments are traffic (51%), coke oven (44%), and wood burning (5%). This work supports the previous studies of Black River and Ashtabula River PAHs by CMB model. In addition, FA provides a more realistic fit to Ashtabula River model data by eliminating 100% contributions from one source.     

Integrated understanding of urban land, groundwater, baseflow and surface-water quality--the City of Birmingham, UK

Integrated understanding of urban land, groundwater (shallow and deep), baseflow and surface-water quality relationships is required for effective urban water-quality management. Chemical quality data from across these media have been collected for the Birmingham (UK) aquifer--River Tame conurbation to assess chemical transport from contaminated land to groundwater to baseflow to surface water. Although metals concentrations were high in soils, low leachability and attenuation caused concentrations in groundwaters and baseflow discharging to surface water to be generally low with only sporadic elevated concentrations attributed to localised point sources. Hydrocarbon VOCs (volatile organic compounds) were similarly absent or at low concentration attributable to their ready natural attenuation. Chlorinated VOCs, however, were widely encountered in groundwater, discharging as baseflow to surface water and impacting surface-water quality. This is attributed to their DNAPL (dense nonaqueous-phase liquid) properties and relative recalcitrance although there was some evidence of biodegradation, albeit insufficient to protect surface water and groundwater abstraction receptors. Some inorganic trends were evident across the various media; nitrate was the most significant quality concern. Generic conclusions are drawn on urban water-quality management and the need for risk-based management strategies to optimise use of urban, sporadically contaminated groundwater in conjunction with surface water highlighted.     

Continuity-based model interfacing for plant-wide simulation: a general approach

In plant-wide simulation studies of wastewater treatment facilities, often existing models from different origin need to be coupled. However, as these submodels are likely to contain different state variables, their coupling is not straightforward. The continuity-based interfacing method (CBIM) provides a general framework to construct model interfaces for models of wastewater systems, taking into account conservation principles. In this contribution, the CBIM approach is applied to study the effect of sludge digestion reject water treatment with a SHARON-Anammox process on a plant-wide scale. Separate models were available for the SHARON process and for the Anammox process. The Benchmark simulation model no. 2 (BSM2) is used to simulate the behaviour of the complete WWTP including sludge digestion. The CBIM approach is followed to develop three different model interfaces. At the same time, the generally applicable CBIM approach was further refined and particular issues when coupling models in which pH is considered as a state variable, are pointed out.     

Solving the problem at the source: Controlling Mn release at the sediment-water interface via hypolimnetic oxygenation

One of the primary goals of hypolimnetic oxygenation systems (HOx) from a drinking water perspective is to suppress sediment-water fluxes of reduced chemical species (e.g., manganese and iron) by replenishing dissolved oxygen (O₂) in the hypolimnion. Manganese (Mn) in particular is becoming a serious problem for water treatment on a global scale. While it has been established that HOx can increase sediment O₂ uptake rates and subsequently enhance the sediment oxic zone via elevated near-sediment O₂ and mixing, the influence of HOx on sediment-water fluxes of chemical species with more complicated redox kinetics like Mn has not been comprehensively evaluated.This study was based on Mn and O₂ data collected primarily in-situ to characterize both the sediment and water column in a drinking-water-supply reservoir equipped with an HOx. While diffusive Mn flux out of the sediment was enhanced by HOx operation due to an increased concentration driving force across the sediment-water interface, oxygenation maintained elevated near-sediment and porewater O₂ levels that facilitated biogeochemical cycling and subsequent retention of released Mn within the benthic region. Results show that soluble Mn levels in the lower hypolimnion increased substantially when the HOx was turned off for as little as ∼48 h and the upper sediment became anoxic. Turning off the HOx for longer periods (i.e., several weeks) significantly impaired water quality due to sediment Mn release. Continual oxygenation maintained an oxic benthic region sufficient to prevent Mn release to the overlying source water.     

The impact of information on perceived air quality--'organic' vs. 'synthetic' building materials

As indoor air quality complaints cannot be explained satisfactorily and building materials can be a major source of indoor air pollution, we hypothesized that emissions from building materials perceived as unfamiliar or annoying odors may contribute to such complaints. To test this hypothesis, emissions from indoor building materials containing linseed oil (organic) and comparable synthetic (synthetic) materials were evaluated by a na?ve sensory panel for evaluation of odor intensity (OI) and odor acceptability (OA). The building materials were concealed in ventilated climate chambers of the CLIMPAQ type. When information was provided about the identity and type of building material during the evaluation, i.e. by labeling the materials in test chambers either as 'organic' or 'synthetic', the OI was significantly lower for all the 'organic' materials compared with evaluations without information. Similarly, OA was increased significantly for most 'organic' samples, but not the 'synthetic' ones. The major effect is probably that OA is increased when the panel is given information about the odor source. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: As providing information about the source of odors can increase their acceptability, complaints about indoor air quality may be decreased if occupants of buildings are well informed about odorous emissions from the new building materials or new activities in their indoor environment.     

Including greenhouse gas emissions during benchmarking of wastewater treatment plant control strategies

The main objective of this paper is to demonstrate how greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be quantified during the evaluation of control strategies in wastewater treatment plants (WWTP). A modified version of the IWA Benchmark Simulation Model No 2 (BSM2G) is hereby used as a simulation case study. Thus, the traditional effluent quality index (EQI), operational cost index (OCI) and time in violation (TIV) used to evaluate control strategies in WWTP are complemented with a new dimension dealing with GHG emissions. The proposed approach is based on a set of comprehensive models that estimate all potential on-site and off-site sources of GHG emissions. The case study investigates the overall performance of several control strategies and demonstrates that substantial reductions in effluent pollution, operating costs and GHG emissions can be achieved when automatic control is implemented. Furthermore, the study is complemented with a scenario analysis that examines the role of i) the dissolved oxygen (DO) set-point, ii) the sludge retention time (SRT) and iii) the organic carbon/nitrogen ratio (COD/N) as promoters of GHG emissions. The results of this study show the potential mechanisms that promote the formation of CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O when different operational strategies are implemented, the existing synergies and trade-offs amongst the EQI, the OCI and TIV criteria and finally the need to reach a compromise solution to achieve an optimal plant performance.     

Atmospheric mercury depletion event study in Ny-Alesund (Svalbard) in spring 2005. Deposition and transformation of Hg in surface snow during springtime

A field campaign was conducted in Ny-Alesund (78 degrees 54'N, 11 degrees 53'E), Svalbard (Norway) during April and May 2005. An Atmospheric Mercury (Hg) Depletion Event (AMDE) was observed from the morning of April 24 until the evening of April 27. Transport of already Hg and ozone (O3) depleted air masses could explain this observed depletion. Due to a snowfall event during the AMDE, surface snow Hg concentrations increased two fold. Hg deposition took place over a short period of time corresponding to 3-4 days. More than 80% of the deposited Hg was estimated to be reemitted back to the atmosphere in the days following the event. During the campaign, we observed night and day variations in surface snow Hg concentrations, which may be the result of gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) oxidation to divalent Hg at the snow/air interface by daylight surface snow chemistry. Finally, a decrease in the reactive Hg (HgR) fraction of total Hg (HgT) in the surface snow was observed during spring. We postulate that the transformation of HgR to a more stable form may occur in Arctic snow during spring.