A complete VARMA modelling methodology based on scalar components

Abstract. This article proposes an extension to scalar component methodology for the identification and estimation of VARMA models. The complete methodology determines the exact positions of all free parameters in any VARMA model with a predetermined embedded scalar component structure. This leads to an exactly identified system of equations that is estimated using full information maximum likelihood.     

A new feature selection algorithm and composite neural network for electricity price forecasting

In a competitive electricity market, the forecasting of energy prices is an important activity for all the market participants either for developing bidding strategies or for making investment decisions. In this paper, a new forecast strategy is proposed for day ahead prediction of electricity price, which is a complex signal with nonlinear, volatile and time dependent behavior. Our forecast strategy includes a new two stage feature selection algorithm, a composite neural network (CNN) and a few auxiliary predictors. The feature selection algorithm has two filtering stages to remove irrelevant and redundant candidate inputs, respectively. This algorithm is based on mutual information (MI) criterion and selects the input variables of the CNN among a large set of candidate inputs. The CNN is composed of a few neural networks (NN) with a new data flow among its building blocks. The CNN is the forecast engine of the proposed strategy. A kind of cross-validation technique is also presented to fine-tune the adjustable parameters of the feature selection algorithm and CNN. Moreover, the proposed price forecast strategy is equipped with a few auxiliary predictors to enrich the candidate set of inputs of the forecast engine. The whole proposed strategy is examined on the PJM, Spanish and Californian electricity markets and compared with some of the most recent price forecast methods.     

Fracture Assessment of U-Notched Graphite Plates Under Tension

The experimentally obtained tensile load-bearing capacity of fifteen U-notched polycrystalline graphite plates reported in literature was theoretically estimated by means of two well-known brittle fracture models, namely the mean stress (MS) and the point stress (PS) criteria. The results showed that while the mean discrepancies between the experimental and the theoretical results for both the models are very good and approximately equal, the discrepancies are significantly different for various notch tip radii. Meanwhile, the results of MS and PS criteria were compared with the results of the strain energy density (SED) criterion reported in literature. Relatively similar value of mean discrepancy was also obtained for the SED model. It was demonstrated in this research that for small values of the notch tip radius, the MS model is the most appropriate failure criterion while the PS and SED criteria are much better models for medium radii. Moreover, for large notch tip radii, the MS and PS criteria are better choices for tensile fracture assessment of U-notched graphite plates than the SED criterion.     

Thermal Analysis of Non-linear Convective–Radiative Hyperbolic Lumped Systems with Simultaneous Variation of Temperature-Dependent Specific Heat and Surface Emissivity by MsDTM and BPES

With the advent of temperatures near absolute zero, it is often claimed that at very low temperatures the effect of thermal wave propagation must be included by the hyperbolic heat conduction equation (HHCE). In this paper the non-linear convective–radiative HHCE is investigated. Opposite to common numerical analyses, analytical expressions are obtained for the temperature variations by the multi-step differential transformation method. Some conclusions about alteration of the specific heat of the material, temperature steeping, and Vernotte number have been formulated.     

Failure Analysis and Repair of a Catastrophically Damaged Gas Turbine Compressor Disk Using SEM Technique and CFD Analysis

During a major overhaul of an 85?MW gas turbine unit in Iran-Rey power plant, 39 cracks were detected with different lengths and locations on the compressor disk of stage 11. All of the cracks initiated from the dovetail regions. Preliminary visual inspections and further micro-fractography using the scanning electron microscope demonstrated that the fretting fatigue phenomenon was the main cause of failure. Four repair methods were suggested to restart the unit. The first one was to remove all of the cracks from the disk by machining, or the so-called blending. The second, third, and fourth ways were to remove the entire rotor blades of stage 11, to remove the entire rotor and stator blades of the stage 11 simultaneously, and to remove those rotor blades of stage 11 corresponding to the damaged dovetails, respectively. Although the first way of solution was initially carried out on the damaged disk, the first author offered that restarting the unit with the blended disk is not reliable enough because of the presence of a large number of repair points on the disk. Using the numerical investigations based on the computational fluid dynamics, it was found that only the second suggestion (i.e., removing the entire rotor blades of the stage 11) might be applicable. Ultimately, the entire stage 11 rotor blades were removed from the blended disk, and the gas turbine unit was successfully restarted without encountering abnormal operation. Although the performed process resulted in approximately 20% output power loss compared with the unit's power before the blades' removal, the unit was quickly restored to be ready to restart, and the electric power could be generated during the period of peak consumption.     

Quantitative characterization of carrier injection across metal–organic interfaces using Bardeen theory

We have investigated the contact between a metal and an organic/polymeric (o/p) material and we have introduced a relation for carrier injection using Bardeen theory. A series of narrow barriers is considered in the semiconductor side to account for the localized nature of the carriers in the o/p material. As an application of the model, we have calculated the hopping rate of carriers in terms of the contact parameters. Also, we have discussed the hopping of carriers deep into the organic dielectric. Finally, we have explored the hopping rate in practical contacts between polyfluorene-based polymers and different electrodes.     

Thermosensitive folic acid-targeted poly (ethylene-<Emphasis Type="Italic">co</Emphasis>-vinyl alcohol) hemisuccinate polymeric nanoparticles for delivery of epirubicin to breast cancer cells

A novel thermosensitive folic acid (FA)-targeted succinylated poly (ethylene-co-vinyl alcohol) (EVOH) (EVOHS-FA) nanocarrier was synthesized for the specific delivery of epirubicin (EPI) to MCF-7 breast cancer cell line. Three different ratios of synthesized EVOH-Suc were reacted with FA. The structure of the desired products (EVOHS₄₀-FA, EVOHS₆₀-FA and EVOHS₈₀-FA) was confirmed by ¹H NMR and FTIR techniques. Nanoparticles were obtained by nano-precipitation procedure using DMSO/H₂O as solvent/anti-solvent. The particle size, zeta potential, entrapment efficacy and in vitro release profile of the final formulations in different temperatures were measured. The optimized nanoparticles had the particle size of 214 ± 8.5 nm, zeta potential of ?29.6 mV, PDI of 0.198 ± 0.04, and a high encapsulation efficiency that released the drug efficiently within 450 h at the temperature of 40 °C compared to 37 °C. The morphology of nanoparticles was studied by scanning electron microscopy. The in vitro cytotoxicity was evaluated using the MTT assay on MCF-7 cell lines in response to temperatures of 37 and 40 °C. The MTT assay indicated that the targeted nanoparticles carrying EPI were significantly more cytotoxic than the non-targeted nanoparticles and the free drug at 40 °C.     

Potency of Different Carbon Sources in Reduction of Microsilica to Synthesize SiC from Mechanically Activated Powder Mixtures

In the present study, the influences of three different types of carbon (carbon black, graphite, and petroleum coke) on SiC synthesis via mechanical activation and sintering were evaluated. In this regard, the phase components, morphology, and the formation mechanism were investigated. SiC nanoparticles were detected to be formed after 4 h of milling and sintering at 1450°C, regardless of the sources of carbon. The carbon types exert their effects on the morphology of the as‐synthesized particles, where carbon black leads to form rod‐like SiC particles and the other two carbon types result in semi‐spherical SiC particles. This is due to the dominant mechanism in the mentioned process. The rod‐like particles obtained from the carbon black‐containing powder were synthesized via the VSL mechanism, whereas the solid‐state reactions occurred to form the SiC particles in the graphite‐ or petroleum coke‐containing samples. In the VSL mechanism, any increase in the milling time leads to facilitate the SiC formation due to entrance of Fe debris, whereas in the other samples (graphite or petroleum coke) the procedure is reversed.     

Analytical solution for transient temperature and thermal stresses within convective multilayer disks with time-dependent internal heat generation,Part II: Applications

This work investigates the analytical solution for transient temperature and thermal stresses within three circular geometries. First, the transient temperature and thermal stresses within a composite disk are addressed. Then, two examples regarding transient temperature and thermal stresses throughout circular heaters are analyzed. Pulsed and sinusoidal internal heat generations are incorporated into the second and third examples, respectively. For the composite hollow-disk example, merely the separation of variables method (SVM) is used to overcome the energy partial differential equation. For the other two examples, the combination of the SVM and Duhamel's theorem are adopted to solve the partial differential equations. Accordingly, assuming plane stress formulation, the transient thermal stresses within structures are obtained.     

Effects of cooling channel blockage on fuel plate temperature in Tehran Research Reactor

In this study, the variation of the temperature distribution of the fuel plate in Tehran Research Reactor core was studied in case of coolant channels blockage. While the experimental method is not possible, both the analytical and simulation methods were used to obtain the more reliable data. The results show that one channel blockage will increase the fuel temperature to about 100%, but it does not lead to clad melt down still. With further calculation and simulation it is understood that if the coolant velocity drops to 90% of its nominal value, it may causes the clad melt-ing down. At least two channels with complete blockage even at the positions far from the core center can also melt down the clad.