The effectiveness of the combined use of VIX and Support Vector Machines on the prediction of S&P 500

The aim of this research is to analyse the effectiveness of the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index (VIX) when used with Support Vector Machines (SVMs) in order to forecast the weekly change in the S&P 500 index. The data provided cover the period between 3 January 2000 and 30 December 2011. A trading simulation is implemented so that statistical efficiency is complemented by measures of economic performance. The inputs retained are traditional technical trading rules commonly used in the analysis of equity markets such as Relative Strength Index, Moving Average Convergence Divergence, VIX and the daily return of the S&P 500. The SVM identifies the best situations in which to buy or sell in the market. The two outputs of the SVM are the movement of the market and the degree of set membership. The obtained results show that SVM using VIX produce better results than the Buy and Hold strategy or SVM without VIX. The influence of VIX in the trading system is particularly significant when bearish periods appear. Moreover, the SVM allows the reduction in the Maximum Drawdown and the annualised standard deviation.     

An improvement of the EDI method in linear elastic fracture mechanics by means of an a posteriori error estimator in G

In this paper, an error estimator that quantifies the effect of the finite element discretization error on the computation of the stress intensity factor in linear elastic fracture mechanics is presented. In order to obtain the proposed estimator, a shape design sensitivity analysis (SDSA) is applied to the fracture mechanics problem. Following this approach, one of the most efficient post‐processing techniques for computing the strain energy release rate G, the well‐known EDI method, may be interpreted as a continuum method of the SDSA. The proposed error estimator is based on the recovery of the gradient fields and its reliability has been checked by means of numerical problems, yielding very good estimations of the true error. The new estimator remarkably improves the results given by a previous error estimator, which is based on a discrete analytical approach of SDSA. As a consequence, the combination of the new error estimator and the result given by the EDI method provides a much more accurate estimation of G. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Zein‐based ultrathin fibers containing ceramic nanofillers obtained by electrospinning. II. Mechanical properties,gas barrier,and sustained release capacity of biocide thymol in multilayer polylactide films

The combination of electrospinning technology and nanomaterials such as nanoclays can synergistically lead to novel materials with enhanced properties and functionalities for their usage in passive and active packaging applications. Part I of this work was focused on the development of ultrathin zein fibers containing nanoclays, which were oriented along the fiber axis and increased the thermal properties. Part II presents the use of the hybrid fibers as passive and active components in multilayer packaging structures. The hybrid fibers are incorporated in poly(lactic acid) films via a two‐step process: Electrospinning and compression molding. The composites thus produced presented improved mechanical and barrier properties than the unfilled material. The natural biocide extract thymol is then incorporated in the coating, and its sustained release properties are shown. The antimicrobial capacity of the hybrid fibers was also determined against foodborne bacteria. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J. Appl. Polym. Sci. 2014 , 131, 40768.     

Developing BP-driven web applications through the use of MDE techniques

Model driven engineering (MDE) is a suitable approach for performing the construction of software systems (in particular in the Web application domain). There are different types of Web applications depending on their purpose (i.e., document-centric, interactive, transactional, workflow/business process-based, collaborative, etc). This work focusses on business process-based Web applications in order to be able to understand business processes in a broad sense, from the lightweight business processes already addressed by existing proposals to long-running asynchronous processes. This work presents a MDE method for the construction of systems of this type. The method has been designed in two steps following the MDE principles. In the first step, the system is represented by means of models in a technology-independent manner. These models capture the different aspects of Web-based systems (these aspects refer to behaviour, structure, navigation, and presentation issues). In the second step, the model transformations (both model- to-model and model-to-text) are applied in order to obtain the final system in terms of a specific technology. In addition, a set of Eclipse-based tools has been developed to provide automation in the application of the proposed method in order to validate the proposal.     

Randomised trial of heroin maintenance programme for addicts who fail in conventional drug treatments

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate an experimental heroin maintenance programme. Design: Randomised trial. SETTING: Outpatient clinic in Geneva, Switzerland. SUBJECTS: Heroin addicts recruited from the community who were socially marginalised and in poor health and had failed in at least two previous drug treatments. INTERVENTION: Patients in the experimental programme (n=27) received intravenous heroin and other health and psychosocial services. Control patients (n=24) received any other conventional drug treatment (usually methadone maintenance). Main outcome measures: Self reported drug use, health status (SF-36), and social functioning. RESULTS: 25 experimental patients completed 6 months in the programme, receiving a median of 480 mg of heroin daily. One experimental subject and 10 control subjects still used street heroin daily at follow up (difference 44%; 95% confidence interval 16% to 71%). Health status scores that improved significantly more in experimental subjects were mental health (0.58 SD; 0.07 to 1.10), role limitations due to emotional problems (0.95 SD; 0.11 to 1.79), and social functioning (0.65 SD; 0.03 to 1.26). Experimental subjects also significantly reduced their illegal income and drug expenses and committed fewer drug and property related offences. There were no benefits in terms of work, housing situation, somatic health status, and use of other drugs. Unexpectedly, only nine (38%) control subjects entered the heroin maintenance programme at follow up. CONCLUSIONS: A heroin maintenance programme is a feasible and clinically effective treatment for heroin users who fail in conventional drug treatment programmes. Even in this population, however, another attempt at methadone maintenance may be successful and help the patient to stop using injectable opioids.     

Speeds of Sound and Isentropic Compressibilities of Binary Mixtures Containing Cyclic Ethers and Haloalkanes at 298.15 and 313.15 K

Speeds of sound of binary mixtures formed by either 1,3-dioxolane or 1,4-dioxane and isomeric chlorobutanes at 298.15 and 313.15 K are reported in this paper. Isentropic compressibilities and isentropic compressibility deviations have been calculated from experimental measurements. Isentropic compressibility deviations have been fitted to a Redlich–Kister equation, and the results have been discussed in terms of molecular interactions and structural effects. Isentropic compressibilities have been estimated at 298.15 K using the Prigogine–Flory–Patterson theory.     

Effect of temperature on hot-air drying rate and on retention of antioxidant capacity in apple leathers

Fruit leathers are pectic gels, eaten as snack or dessert, obtained by dehydrating fruit purees. In this work, apple leathers were prepared by a hot-air drying process which allows the formation of a gel, following the “saccharide–acid–high methoxyl pectin” gelation mechanism. Leathers were produced at 50, 60 and 70 °C, from two formulations: control and added with potassium metabisulphite (KM) as antioxidant. The drying process was studied applying a diffusive model, while antioxidant capacity (AC) losses were represented by a first-order model. Activation energy for drying (20.6 kJ/mol) was lower than those estimated for AC losses in control (31.5 kJ/mol) and KM-added (37.9 kJ/mol) leathers. Therefore, the drying time reduction achieved by increasing air temperature is not sufficient to decrease AC losses in the range covered. AC retention decreased in both formulations at increasing air temperature. KM-added samples showed higher AC retention than the controls, except for those dried at 70 °C. Kinetic constants were lower for KM-added samples, suggesting a protective effect of the additive, especially at moderate air temperatures. In the most favorable situation, AC retention was of only 16%. Therefore, the functional character of these products may not be preserved if dried with hot air and the research on economically viable, less-severe drying technologies should be intensified.     

Collective intelligence as mechanism of medical diagnosis: The iPixel approach

Collective intelligence (CI) is an active field of research, which capitalizes the knowledge of human collectives in order to create, to innovate and to invent. There are two important mechanisms to implement CI: recommender and reputation systems. Recommender systems are used to provide filtered information from a large amount of elements. The recommendations are intended to provide interesting elements to users. Recommendation systems can be developed using different techniques and algorithms where the selection of these techniques depends on the area in which they will be applied. This work presents iPixel Recommender Engine, which is focused on the medical field. iPixel Recommendation Engine supports the process of differential diagnosis by recommending mammographic evaluations. Each mammogram is collectively tagged by the users’ community with a semantic sense; this feature allows iPixel acquires collective knowledge. iPixel can associate more than one feature with each mammogram. This work also presents a qualitative evaluation, where the basic features that a recommendation system should have in the medical field were obtained. Finally, a comparison was carried out with other similar recommender systems in order to know the Pixel advantages.