Domestic demand-side response with heat pumps: controls and tariffs

ABSTRACT

Electric heat pumps feature prominently in projected energy transitions in the UK and elsewhere. Owing to their high electricity consumption, heat pumps are viewed as important targets for demand-side response (DSR). Findings are presented from a field trial of a new control system that aims to optimize heat pump performance, including under time-varying tariff conditions. The trial involved monitoring 76 properties with heat pumps, but without dedicated heat storage; 31 of these received the control system. Interviews were conducted with a subsample of 12 participants. The controller successfully evened out electricity demand over the day (reducing the evening peak), but this was associated with increased late night and daytime temperatures. Interview participants reported some disturbance owing to overnight heating and noise, as well as usability issues with the controller interface and hardware. These issues present risks to the future acceptability of such systems. While the system delivered short-term demand reductions successfully, longer-term demand shifting risked causing unacceptable disturbance to occupants. Future control systems could overcome some of the issues identified in this pioneering trial through more effective zoning, using temperature caps or installing dedicated heat storage, but these may either limit the available flexibility or be challenging to achieve.     

Association of digital cushion thickness with sole temperature measured with the use of infrared thermography

The main objective of this study was to investigate the association between digital cushion thickness and sole temperature measured by infrared thermography. Data were collected from 216 lactating Holstein cows at 4 to 10 d in milk (DIM). Cows were locomotion scored and sole temperature was measured after claw trimming (a minimum delay of 3 min was allowed for the hoof to cool) using an infrared thermography camera. Temperature was measured at the typical ulcer site of the lateral digit of the left hind foot. Immediately after the thermographic image was obtained, the thickness of the digital cushion was measured by ultrasonography. Rumen fluid samples were collected with a stomach tube and sample pH was measured immediately after collection. Additionally, a blood sample was obtained and used for measurements of serum concentrations of β-hydroxybutyrate (BHBA), nonesterified fatty acids (NEFA), and haptoglobin. To evaluate the associations of digital cushion thickness with sole temperature, a linear regression model was built using the GLIMMIX procedure in SAS software (SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC). Sole temperature was the response variable, and digital cushion thickness quartiles, locomotion score group, rumen fluid pH, rumen fluid sample volume, environmental temperature, age in days, and serum levels of NEFA, BHBA, and haptoglobin were fitted in the model. Only significant variables were retained in the final model. Simple linear regression scatter plots were used to illustrate associations between sole temperature (measured by infrared thermography at the typical ulcer site) and environmental temperature and between NEFA and BHBA serum levels and haptoglobin. One-way ANOVA was used to compare rumen fluid pH for different locomotion score groups and for different digital cushion quartiles. Results from the multivariable linear regression model showed that sole temperature increased as locomotion scores increased and decreased as digital cushion thickness increased. These results were adjusted for environmental temperature, which was significantly associated with sole temperature. Serum levels of NEFA, BHBA, and haptoglobin were not associated with sole temperature. However, significant correlations existed between serum levels of NEFA and haptoglobin and between serum levels of BHBA and haptoglobin. Rumen fluid pH was not associated with either locomotion score or digital cushion thickness. In conclusion, we show here that digital cushion thickness was associated with sole temperature in cows at 4 to 10 DIM.     

Short communication: Genetic characterization of digital cushion thickness

Dairy cow lameness is a serious animal welfare issue. It is also a significant cause of economic losses, reducing reproductive efficiency and milk production and increasing culling rates. The digital cushion is a complex structure composed mostly of adipose tissue located underneath the distal phalanx and has recently been phenotypically associated with incidence of claw horn disruption lesions (CHDL); namely, sole ulcers and white line disease. The objective of this study was to characterize digital cushion thickness genetically and to investigate its association with body condition score (BCS), locomotion score (LOCO), CHDL, and milk production. Data were collected from 1 large closely monitored commercial dairy farm located in upstate New York; 923 dairy cows were used. Before trimming, the following data were collected by a member of the research team: BCS, cow height measurement, and LOCO. Presence or not of CHDL (sole ulcer or white line disease, or both) was recorded at trimming. Immediately after the cows were hoof trimmed, they underwent digital sonographic B-mode examination for the measurement of digital cushion thickness. Factors such as parity number, stage of lactation, calving date, mature-equivalent 305-d milk yield (ME305MY), and pedigree information were obtained from the farm’s dairy management software (DairyCOMP 305; Valley Agricultural Software, Tulare, CA). Univariate animal models were used to obtain variance component estimations for each studied trait (CHDL, BCS, digital cushion thickness average, LOCO, height, and ME305MY) and a 6-variate analysis was conducted to estimate the genetic, residual, and phenotypic correlations between the studied traits. The heritability estimate of DCTA was 0.33 ± 0.09, whereas a statistically significant genetic correlation was estimated between DCTA and CHDL (−0.60 ± 0.29). Of the other genetic correlations, significant estimates were derived for BCS with LOCO (−0.49 ± 0.19) and ME305MY (−0.48 ± 0.20). Digital cushion thickness is moderately heritable and genetically strongly correlated with CHDL.     

Life Expectancy Evaluation of the Wood Poles Which Support the Hellenic Electrical Distribution Network

The Hellenic electrical distribution lines have been basically supported with the use of wood poles. Outages due to aging, degradation, or broken wood poles may infer significant costs due to repair and loss of energy to consumers. Lifetime estimation of wood poles is significant for maintenance and replacement decisions at the power utility. The paper presents a methodology, based on a statistical analysis, for the evaluation of the life expectancy and the production of a survival curve of a typical Hellenic distribution wood pole in-service. The proposed methodology intends to minimize the life-cycle cost of inspection and refurbishment of wood poles in the distribution network of Hellas, something that is really important in the new competitive and liberating Hellenic electrical energy market.     

Renewable energy sources (RES) projects and their barriers on a regional scale: The case study of wind parks in the Dodecanese islands, Greece

The increasing energy challenges faced, in particular, by isolated communities, such as insular communities, call for an integrated, flexible and easy-to-apply methodology aiming at providing a list of renewable energy sources) (RES) projects capable to reduce green house gas (GHG) emissions, satisfy future energy forecasts and reach the objectives of international/national energy directives and obligations, as, for example, the ones set by the Kyoto Protocol by 2010. The EU project EMERGENCE 2010 developed such a methodology that is implemented here in the case study of wind parks in the Dodecanese islands in Greece. The results obtained consist of a final list of financially viable RES wind projects, for which various barriers have been previously identified and assessed. The additional advantages of the proposed methodology is that besides providing as an end result a comprehensive list of RES projects adopted to specific criteria and regional priorities, it also allows space for involving – from early stages – the local community and stakeholders in the decision-making process (participatory planning); in this way, the EMERGENCE 2010 methodology may assist towards the RES promotion and public acceptance, the profitability of RES investments and the regional sustainable development.     

Prediction with the dynamic Bayesian gamma mixture model

Consider the problem of predicting in real time the next value of a random quantity x⩾0 from past observations. We present a flexible solution to this problem, a dynamic Bayesian model which represents the probability distribution of x by a mixture of gamma distributions Σ_ic_iG(z|a_i, b_i). Whenever a new observation on x becomes available, the model updates its estimates of the parameters a_i, b_i, and c_i . It also contains a monitoring mechanism that allows it to react quickly to major changes in the behavior of the input and to adjust itself when its predictions become unsatisfactory. Numerous examples are given, which illustrate the difference between static and dynamic models, and show that the mixture form is flexible enough to represent adequately a variety of inputs, even if their distributions are very different from the gamma     

Behaviour of self-cleaning glass in urban atmosphere

In order to analyse the self-cleaning mechanism of TiO₂-coated window float glass, a field experiment was conducted in Paris, at a site representative of background urban pollution. Two hydrophilic photocatalytic TiO₂-coated industrial glasses and a traditional float glass (reference) were exposed in unsheltered and sheltered condition for various time duration. The sheltered exposure allowed to study the soiling and self-cleaning mechanism without the disturbing effect of rain washing. In parallel, air filtrations were carried out in order to assess the chemical composition of airborne particulate.     

Domestic offset projects in the built environment

Emission reduction activities in the European Union (EU) in- and outside the European Trading System (ETS) thus far have largely taken place separately. One possibility to combine the two is through linking Non-ETS offset project-based crediting schemes in the form of Joint Implementation or domestic offset (DO) projects with the EU ETS. Linking would allow non-ETS offset project-based CO₂ credits to be traded within the ETS market. This paper discusses the merits and drawbacks of the implementation of a DO scheme in the built environment in the Netherlands. The built environment can be characterised as a sector with a great diversity and significant energy savings potential. Emphasis is paid on the modalities for estimating energy savings under DO projects. The authors discuss if next to existing EU, national or regional policies in the Netherlands, DO could spur initiatives in sub-sectors or market areas that are difficult to reach with conventional policy instruments. Thus, despite the existing policy framework in this sector, there could be still space for DO to reach the untapped energy savings potential. DO can support activities and technologies that are not covered by other policy instruments, either because they are not part of the instruments focus or are above the minimum requirements of the incumbent policy targets. It is expected that some lessons from this study in the Netherlands can be taken into account also by other countries facing similar market circumstances, which have implemented several policy instruments and are considering DO schemes as an alternative for capturing part of the untapped energy saving potential in their end use sectors. Another possible advantage of DO is that is has the potential to reduce public spending on existing policy goals, when it is considered in conjunction with existing public financing instruments. In order to tap into this potential, there are a series of hurdles in place, like additionality and the current CO₂ price levels, while transaction and administration costs must be kept low.     

On a class of optimal abstractions of finite-state machines

Anabstraction A of an fsmM consists in partitioning its states, inputs, and outputs into groups, thus turning it into a non-deterministic fsmM _A. For fixed sets of states, inputs, and outputs, and abstraction generally maps a number of machinesM defined on these sets into the sameM _A. We would like to find anoptimal abstractionA ^* which minimizes this number, while lumping the states, inputs, and outputs into a specified number of classes. We extend these ideas to an fsmM operating in a random environment, and show that the abstraction results in a probabilistic fsm . Thinking of changes inM's output map as resulting in machinesM≠MM, we want to find anA ^* that minimizes the number ofMM which are such that the transition probabilities of their abstracted version are identical to those of the specification machine . SuchMM arise from statistically-undetectable output faults inM. Abstractions are directly applicable to the monitoring of a complex system by an observer for deviations from correct behavior (faults). Complex systems are usually accessible through restricted interfaces, which do not allow the observer to distinguish among all states, inputs, and outputs, thus rendering some faulty transitions undetectable. An optimal interface design will minimize the number of such undetectable faults. Assuming that only single-transition output faults occur inM, we show that each of the classes into which the abstraction lumps the outputs contributes a number of undetectable output faults. We then show that the problem of partitioning the outputs into a given number of classes that minimizes the maximum of these numbers is NP-complete. However, we give (a) an approximate minimization algorithm, running in time linear in the number of classes and quadratic in the number ofM's outputs, and (b) a lower bound on the minimum, computable in the same amount of time. The concept of optimal abstractions is illustrated by numerical results on combinational logic circuits that perform arithmetical operations. The results shed light on the trade-off between model simplification and the ability to detect erroneous behaviors in complex systems.     

Genetic relationship of body energy and blood metabolites with reproduction in holstein cows

Body condition score (BCS), energy content (EC), cumulative effective energy balance (CEEB), and blood serum concentrations of glucose, β-hydroxybutyrate (BHBA), and nonesterified fatty acids (NEFA) were measured throughout first lactation in 497 Holstein cows raised on a large commercial farm in northern Greece. All these traits are considered to be indicators of a cow's energy balance. An additional measure of BCS, EC, and blood serum glucose, BHBA, and NEFA concentrations were taken approximately 2 mo (61 ± 23 d) before first calving. During first lactation, first service conception rate, conception rate in the first 305 d of lactation, interval from calving to conception, number of inseminations per conception, incidence of metritis, and incidence of reproductive problems of these cows were recorded; interval between first and second calving, and second lactation first service conception rate were also recorded. Random regression models were used to calculate weekly animal breeding values for first lactation BCS, EC, CEEB, glucose, BHBA, and NEFA. Single trait animal models were used to calculate breeding values for these traits measured on pregnant heifers before calving. Reproductive records were then regressed on animal breeding values for these energy balance-related traits to derive estimates of their genetic correlations. Several significant estimates were obtained. In general, traits that are known to be positively correlated with energy balance (BCS, EC, CEEB, and glucose) were found to have a favorable genetic relationship with reproduction, meaning that increased levels of the former will lead to an enhancement of the latter. On the other hand, traits known to be negatively correlated with energy balance (BHBA and NEFA) were found to have an unfavorable genetic association with reproductive traits. Body condition score, BHBA, and NEFA recorded early in lactation, and glucose concentrations measured in pregnant heifers had the highest genetic correlation with future reproductive performance. Results suggest that genetic selection for body energy and blood metabolites could facilitate the genetic improvement of fertility and overall reproductive efficiency of dairy cows.