Structural reliability software at the University of California, Berkeley

The paper provides an overview of three software for structural reliability analysis developed at the University of California, Berkeley. These are CalREL, which is a general-purpose structural reliability code written in FORTRAN; FERUM, which is a collection of Matlab^® files that can be used for structural reliability analysis in conjunction with simple finite element models; and OpenSees, which is an object-oriented code for nonlinear structural response simulation with reliability capabilities. Reliability analysis methods featured by these software include FORM, SORM, Monte Carlo simulation, and various importance sampling methods. In addition, variable importance and sensitivity measures are provided.     

Large-scale radon hazard evaluation in the Oslofjord region of Norway utilizing indoor radon concentrations, airborne gamma ray spectrometry and geological mapping

We test whether airborne gamma ray spectrometer measurements can be used to estimate levels of radon hazard in the Oslofjord region of Norway. We compile 43,000 line kilometres of gamma ray spectrometer data from 8 airborne surveys covering 10,000 km² and compare them with 6326 indoor radon measurements. We find a clear spatial correlation between areas with elevated concentrations of uranium daughters in the near surface of the ground and regions with high incidence of elevated radon concentrations in dwellings. This correlation permits cautious use of the airborne data in radon hazard evaluation where direct measurements of indoor radon concentrations are few or absent. In radon hazard evaluation there is a natural synergy between the mapping of radon in indoor air, bedrock and drift geology mapping and airborne gamma ray surveying. We produce radon hazard forecast maps for the Oslofjord region based on a spatial union of hazard indicators from all four of these data sources. Indication of elevated radon hazard in any one of the data sets leads to the classification of a region as having an elevated radon hazard potential. This approach is inclusive in nature and we find that the majority of actual radon hazards lie in the assumed elevated risk regions.     

Glazed spaces in Nordic climates

A semi-climatized zone in the shape of a glazed space is heated to some degree by solar radiation and to some degree by excess heat or heat loss from the main and fully insulated part of the building. Such a space will not offer full thermal comfort for permanent occupancy during the winter season, but it is useful for secondary functions such as circulation, storage, physical activities, etc. During the summer season glazed spaces will also be very attractive for ordinary occupancy.

A condition for energy conservation is that these spaces are not heated directly but utilize heat loss and possibly excess heat from the adjoining buildings. If they are properly positioned and constructed, they will also function as solar collectors.

The energy reduction potential will vary greatly with the relative size of the spaces, with the system installed, and with possibilities for long term storage. If the glazed space covers relatively large parts of the adjoining buildings, the reduced heat loss from these may be considerable. If in addition a certain minimum temperature can be kept in the glazed space, the need for heating in the adjoining buildings may be minimal.

Abroad such spaces are often used consciously as architectural elements due to their special spatial character. In countries like Norway they may in addition serve several needs resulting from the special climatic conditions.

SINTEF has developed energy conservation systems based on this concept and has tested them in experimental buildings. One example is the three solar energy houses in the Heimdal low energy dwellings project which totals 14 houses. Another example is a day care centre now under development for the local student union.     

Some considerations on the treatment of uncertainties in risk assessment for practical decision making

This paper discusses the challenges involved in the representation and treatment of uncertainties in risk assessment, taking the point of view of its use in support to decision making. Two main issues are addressed: (1) how to faithfully represent and express the knowledge available to best support the decision making and (2) how to best inform the decision maker. A general risk-uncertainty framework is presented which provides definitions and interpretations of the key concepts introduced. The framework covers probability theory as well as alternative representations of uncertainty, including interval probability, possibility and evidence theory.     

Model Uncertainty in Finite-Element Analysis: Bayesian Finite Elements

In this paper, probabilistic models for structural analysis are put forward, with particular emphasis on model uncertainty. Context is provided by the finite-element method and the need for probabilistic prediction of structural performance in contemporary engineering. Sources of model uncertainty are identified and modeled. A Bayesian approach is suggested for the assessment of new model parameters within the element formulations. The expressions are formulated by means of numerical “sensors” that influence the model uncertainty, such as element distortion and degree of nonlinearity. An assessment procedure is proposed to identify the sensors that are most suitable to capture model uncertainty. This paper presents the general methodology and specific implementations for a general-purpose structural element. Two numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the methodology and its implications for probabilistic prediction of structural response.     

Safety Performance Indicator for alcohol in road accidents—International comparison, validity and data quality

Safety Performance Indicators, SPIs, are developed for various areas within road safety such as speed, car occupant protection, alcohol and drugs, vehicle safety, etc. SPIs can be used to indicate the road safety situation and to compare road safety performance between countries and over time and to understand the process leading to accidents, helping to select the measures to reduce them. This article describes an alcohol SPI defined as the percentage of fatalities resulting from accidents involving at least one driver impaired by alcohol. The calculation of the alcohol SPI for 26 European countries shows that the SPI varies from 4.4% in Bulgaria to 72.2% in Italy. These results raise the question if the results reflect the real situation or if there is a methodological explanation. To answer this question three different studies were carried out: comparison with other alcohol SPIs, in-depth studies of data quality in seven selected countries, and a study of correlations between the SPI and influencing factors.These studies indicate clearly that there is a need to improve quality of the data used for the alcohol SPI. Most importantly, the total number of drivers involved in fatal accidents, the number tested for alcohol and the number not tested, should be reported, in addition to the number of alcohol positive and negative drivers among those tested. Until these improvements are made, the validity of this SPI seems poor and comparison of the alcohol SPI results across countries should be made with caution.     

Familiarizing Food: Frozen Food Chains,Technology, and Consumer Trust,Norway 1940–1970

This article investigates the relationship between food chains and the production of consumer trust through cases drawn from the introduction of frozen fish fillets in Norway. Specifically, it will discuss how the frozen fish industry worked to create consumer trust in this new food product despite initial skepticism. Conventional ways of building trust such as quality control systems, branding, and marketing are investigated, but in addition to these mechanisms, the article discusses how the frozen fish industry utilized a range of more mundane technologies as trust-producing technologies. By investigating this effort, the article argues that technology is a valuable lens for understanding how consumers are familiarized with new foods.     

Reduction of the blood alcohol concentration limit in Norway—Effects on knowledge,behavior and accidents

From January 1, 2001, the legal blood alcohol concentration (BAC) limit in Norway was reduced from 0.5 to 0.2 g/l. A before-and-after telephone survey concerning the effects of the reduced BAC limit was carried out. 3001 driver's license holders were interviewed before and after the amendment. The percentage of drivers claiming that they will drink no alcohol before driving has increased from 82 to 91 percent, thus the distinction between driving a motor vehicle and drinking alcohol has become clearer. Drivers influenced by alcohol and involved in accidents have on the average much higher BACs than 0.5 g/l. Statistics on alcohol-related accidents are not available for the years before and after the legal amendment, but single-vehicle night-time and weekend personal-injury and fatal crashes are used as surrogate measures. There are no significant decreases in these proxies from the six years before to the six years after the reductions of the legal limit.     

A delay-time model with safety constraint

We consider the basic delay-time model in which a system has three states, the perfect functioning state, a defective state and the failure state. The system is deteriorating and to reduce the number of failures, preventive replacements are carried out when the system is in the defective state. The time in the defective state is referred to as the delay time. Inspections are required to check whether the system is in the defective state. System failures are safety critical and to control the risk, management considers two types of safety constraints: (i) the probability of at least one failure in the interval [0,A] should not exceed a fixed probability ω₁ and (ii) the fraction of time the system is in the defective state should not exceed a fixed limit ω₂. The problem is to determine optimal inspection intervals T, minimizing the expected discounted costs under the safety constraints. Conditions are established for when the safety constraints affect the optimal inspection time and causes increased costs.