COVID-19 hospitalization rates rise exponentially with age,inversely proportional to thymic T-cell production

Here, we report that COVID-19 hospitalization rates follow an exponential relationship with age, doubling for every 16 years of age or equivalently increasing by 4.5% per year of life (R² = 0.98). This mirrors the well-studied exponential decline of both thymus volume and T-cell production, which halve every 16 years. COVID-19 can therefore be added to the list of other diseases with this property, including those caused by methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, MERS-CoV, West Nile virus, Streptococcus pneumoniae and certain cancers, such as chronic myeloid leukaemia and brain cancers. In addition, the incidence of severe disease and mortality due to COVID-19 are both higher in men, consistent with the degree to which thymic involution (and the decrease in T-cell production with age) is more severe in men compared to women. Since these properties are shared with some non-contagious diseases, we hypothesized that the age dependence does not come from social-mixing patterns, i.e. that the probability of hospitalization given infection rises exponentially, doubling every 16 years. A Bayesian analysis of daily hospitalizations, incorporating contact matrices, found that this relationship holds for every age group except for the under 20s. While older adults have fewer contacts than young adults, our analysis suggests that there is an approximate cancellation between the effects of fewer contacts for the elderly and higher infectiousness due to a higher probability of developing severe disease. Our model fitting suggests under 20s have 49–75% additional immune protection beyond that predicted by strong thymus function alone, consistent with increased juvenile cross-immunity from other viruses. We found no evidence for differences between age groups in susceptibility to infection or infectiousness to others (given disease state), i.e. the only important factor in the age dependence of hospitalization rates is the probability of hospitalization given infection. These findings suggest the existence of a T-cell exhaustion threshold, proportional to thymic output and that clonal expansion of peripheral T-cells does not affect disease risk. The strikingly simple inverse relationship between risk and thymic T-cell output adds to the evidence that thymic involution is an important factor in the decline of the immune system with age and may also be an important clue in understanding disease progression, not just for COVID-19 but other diseases as well.     

Project to develop school education services in Delhi, India

There are many ways in which quantitative decision models can be applied in project management. The introduction of a project evaluation review technique network model to the development of a school education service in the city of Delhi, India, is described. The reasons for choosing this method, its advantages and limitations are discussed. Examples of the information obtained from the model are presented and explained.     

Optimal ensemble construction via meta-evolutionary ensembles

In this paper, we propose a meta-evolutionary approach to improve on the performance of individual classifiers. In the proposed system, individual classifiers evolve, competing to correctly classify test points, and are given extra rewards for getting difficult points right. Ensembles consisting of multiple classifiers also compete for member classifiers, and are rewarded based on their predictive performance. In this way we aim to build small-sized optimal ensembles rather than form large-sized ensembles of individually-optimized classifiers. Experimental results on 15 data sets suggest that our algorithms can generate ensembles that are more effective than single classifiers and traditional ensemble methods.     

The effects of recent practice on task switching.

Four experiments investigated the effect of recent selective practice on the cost of switching between 2 tasks afforded by letter-digit pairs: alphabet arithmetic and shape comparison. Experiments 1 and 2 found a greater cost associated with switching to the more recently practiced task: evidence that task-set inertia contributes to switching costs. Experiment 3 found this effect to be limited to trials on which a recently trained stimulus followed another such stimulus: a result problematic for all current theories of task-set priming. Experiment 4 showed that the effect of recent practice was eliminated by active preparation for a task switch: It appears that endogenous task-set preparation reduces the effects of task-set inertia. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Coupled-mode theory of overmoded cylindrical metal bragg-reflectors

A coupled-mode theory of overmoded, cylindrical metal Bragg-reflectors is presented. The first-order Bragg coupling constants are derived for TE → TE, TM → TM, TE → TM, and TM → TE mode conversions. Reflectivities and transverse modeQ-factors are computed for a Bragg-reflector resonator. The results illustrate important competition effects between nearly-degenerate-transverse-modes occurring within both the Bragg-reflectors and the resonator.     

Equivalence of models for polynomial learnability

In this paper we consider several variants of Valiant's learnability model that have appeared in the literature. We give conditions under which these models are equivalent in terms of the polynomially learnable concept classes they define. These equivalences allow comparisons of most of the existing theorems in Valiant-style learnability and show that several simplifying assumptions on polynomial learning algorithms can be made without loss of generality. We also give a useful reduction of learning problems to the problem of finding consistent hypotheses, and give comparisons and equivalences between Valiant's model and the prediction learning models of Haussler, Littlestone, and Warmuth (in “29th Annual IEEE Symposium on Foundations of Computer Science,” 1988).     

Longitudinal bone mineral density changes in early rheumatoid arthritis

A prospective longitudinal study of patients with early RA was performed to examine the influence of disease duration, disease activity and physical activity on bone loss. Sixty-seven patients with non-steroid treated RA of less than 5 yr duration, including 16 patients with disease duration less than 6 months, had BMD measurements of the femoral neck and the lumbar spine over a 12-month period using dual energy X-ray absorptiometry. The BMD changes were compared with values from 72 control patients and were also correlated with serial measurements of disease activity (measured by the Stoke Index) and disability [measured by the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) score], at 3-monthly intervals over the 12-month period. No significant differences in BMD changes were found between RA patients and controls overall. Patients with disease duration of less than 6 months had significantly greater loss of BMD at the femoral neck (-3.9%, S.E.M. 1.5) than the remainder of the cohort (-0.2%, S.E.M. 0.7) (P = 0.02) and controls (-0.8%, S.E.M. 0.6). Lumbar spine BMD changes correlated with the initial Stoke Index (Rs-0.373, P = 0.01) but not mean Stoke Indices. There was no correlation of BMD changes with age or HAQ scores. These findings suggest that significant bone loss occurs within the first few months of disease in patients with RA.