储层泥浆侵入深度预测方法研究

泥浆侵入半径的确定尚缺乏严格的验证标准.以油水两相渗流理论和离子扩散方程为基础,结合储集层特点,研究了不同储层参数下泥浆滤液对地层的侵入特性.数值模拟侵入时间选取10 d和20 d.数值模拟结果表明,侵入半径在渗透率不变的情况下随孔隙度的增大而减小,在孔隙度不变的情况下随渗透率的增大而增大;当渗透率和孔隙度都发生变化时,泥浆侵入半径一般随孔隙度的增加呈幂函数增加.依据这种关系对测井资料约束处理,得到的泥浆侵入半径较客观地反映了地层的真实情况.     

适用于网页服务器的应用型入侵检测系统

网页服务器用来传递或处理各种信息,网络攻击手法日新月异,造成诸多攻击手法可以很容易地被实现,多数的入侵检测系统以入侵特征规则作为检测基础,仅能对已知的弱点做有效的检测;提出一个适用于网页服务器的应用型入侵检测模块,将检测模块直接嵌入于网页服务器中,以“异常行为检测”和“错误行为检测”的办法,确认攻击类型,有效地预防新型攻击行为与检测已知攻击事件,对提高系统的安全性有重要作用。     

Empirical assessment of a threshold model for sylvatic plague.

Plague surveillance programmes established in Kazakhstan, Central Asia, during the previous century, have generated large plague archives that have been used to parameterize an abundance threshold model for sylvatic plague in great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) populations. Here, we assess the model using additional data from the same archives. Throughout the focus, population levels above the threshold were a necessary condition for an epizootic to occur. However, there were large numbers of occasions when an epizootic was not observed even though great gerbils were, and had been, abundant. We examine six hypotheses that could explain the resulting false positive predictions, namely (i) including end-of-outbreak data erroneously lowers the estimated threshold, (ii) too few gerbils were tested, (iii) plague becomes locally extinct, (iv) the abundance of fleas was too low, (v) the climate was unfavourable, and (vi) a high proportion of gerbils were resistant. Of these, separate thresholds, fleas and climate received some support but accounted for few false positives and can be disregarded as serious omissions from the model. Small sample size and local extinction received strong support and can account for most of the false positives. Host resistance received no support here but should be subject to more direct experimental testing.     

西江流域压咸风险调度及其时空传递规律研究

枯水期珠江河口咸潮情势日益加重,径流不确定加剧了压咸风险,严重威胁沿线的供水安全。本文基于概率密度分布描述径流不确定性,构建了单源风险调度基本框架。以西江流域五座水库为研究对象,量化了预报误差与压咸风险的响应关系;揭示了压咸风险的时空传递规律;将压咸风险划分为3个等级;确定出各级风险越级传递的临界阈值。研究表明：随预报误差的增大,压咸风险提前且持续天数增加、风险率增大;压咸风险呈逐时段累积和从上游向下游、从支流向干流的时空传递规律;当预报误差超过±16%、±21%时,压咸风险从轻险越级至中险、中险越级至重险。研究成果对于西江流域压咸风险的调控和粤港澳大湾区的供水安全具有重要的应用价值。     

Modelling the effects of human papillomavirus in cervical cells

Worldwide, cervical cancer is the second most common cancer in women, after breast cancer. The prevalence of this malignant disease is estimated at 1.4 million cases worldwide, causing about 290,000 deaths and 500,000 new cases per year, of which 80% correspond to women living in developing countries. In this work we propose a family of ordered models for basal cells of the cervix corresponding to different stages ranging from normal cells to the formation of precancerous lesions. We analyse the first member of the family analytically and for the second member we developed a non-standard numerical method in order to extract some biological information.     

校园网络安全中异常入侵快速定位方法的研究

随着计算机技术和网络技术的飞速发展,当代各类学校内的教学、科研等重要领域都引入了计算机网络技术,尤其是现代各类高等院校,其网络化和信息化的程度更为深入,由此可见校园网络所承担的责任越来越重。因此,校园网络的建设已经成为了现代校园建设的重要组成部分,而校园网络安全的重要性更是不言而喻。     

应对长江口咸潮入侵的临界流量经验模型研究

1994年以来,长江口咸潮入侵严重威胁当地供水安全,随着长江上游水库群陆续建成,有关部门提出了通过上游水库群压咸调度保障长江口地区供水安全的方案。为明确压咸调度的目标流量(即临界流量),基于统计分析的方法,采用多元回归分析和主成分分析方法,选取实测站点数据建立了盐度-潮差-入海流量的相关关系统计模型,研究了咸潮发生的机理;通过模型分析多次咸潮入侵数据,确定临界流量为一个变化值,潮差290～335 cm下的临界流量在9 390～21 633 m³/s之间。研究表明,当长江口咸潮入侵时,单独依靠长江上游水库调度压咸所需的流量大,响应时间长,压咸效果不明显。因此,实际压咸调度应通过流域整体调度与本地蓄淡避咸水库共同作用应对咸潮入侵。     

柴达木盆地涩北气田疏松砂岩气藏水气体积比及水侵预警

柴达木盆地涩北气田属于弱边水驱动的背斜型浅层疏松砂岩气田,采用衰竭式开采。根据水气体积比,其气藏生产过程可分为4个阶段,即低含水稳产阶段、初期水侵阶段、边水突破阶段和强水侵阶段。依照水气体积比变化,可以准确监测水侵的发生,水侵突破阶段可以作为预判边水大规模水侵的时间窗口,以调整开采方案,延长稳产期;高含水的强水侵阶段,生产周期较长,是带水开采提高采收率的重要阶段。     

Territorial targeting in EU private law

In a series of rulings given in the last few years, the Court of Justice of the European Union (EU) has made use of the concept of targeting by a trader of a particular territorial market as a device for determining the scope of European legislation on private law. The concept is of particular importance in the context of trading activities conducted by means of the Internet, though its significance is not confined to such activities. In particular, the European Court has used the concept of targeting for the purpose of restricting the substantive ambit of intellectual property rights created or harmonised by EU legislation. On the other hand, it has avoided use of the concept of targeting in the context of EU legislation allocating jurisdiction between the courts of the Member States, even in respect of disputes involving intellectual property, except where a legislative text specifically invokes such a concept. The instant paper endeavours to review the position as currently established by the European case-law, and to predict the likely further developments.