漫谈钢铁企业用空分装置的流程选择

钢铁企业的氧气厂要深入了解本企业的用氧情况及周边市场的需要，据此确定拟新增空分装置的设计参数，选定最适宜的空分流程。探讨了空分流程选择时要考虑的几个方面。介绍了一种对空分装置的投资和长期运行费用之间进行经济性分析的定量计算公式，并得出了四点结论。     

矿业项目经济评价方法

矿业项目经济评价由于自身的不确定性和动态性特点,导致矿业项目经济评价方法的多元化,其中最主要的两种方法净现值法和内部收益率法都有各自的优缺点,本文通过对两种方法的比较提出了采用实物期权评价法评价矿业项目更为科学合理.     

Evaluating methods of investment project and optimizing models of portfolio selection in fuzzy uncertainty

This paper deals with the problems of both project valuation and portfolio selection under the assumption that the investment capitals and the net cash flows of the projects are fuzzy variables. Using the credibilistic expected value and the credibilistic lower semivariance of fuzzy variables, this paper proposes both the credibilistic return index and the credibilistic risk index, which are measures of investment return and investment risk with annuity form for evaluating single project. Moreover, a composite risk-return index for selecting the optimal investment strategy is also presented. Then, we set up a general project portfolio optimization model with fuzzy returns and two specific models: triangle and interval fuzzy returns. Furthermore, we provide two algorithms: the improved heuristic rules based on genetic algorithm and the traversal algorithm. Finally, two numerical examples are presented to illustrate the efficiency and the effectiveness of these proposed optimization methods.     

网络市场测试中的期权应用

网络产品试销是为了解决市场与产品不确定性问题,由于实物期权法在处理不确定性问题上的优势,在试销决策问题上引入实物期权方法很有必要。通过计算分析,实物期权法能比较合理地反映高风险网络市场中选择权的价值,反映管理者灵活地调整营销策略而给项目带来的增值。     

空分设备项目投资经济性分析

以一具体项目为例描述了如何用净现值法和内含报酬率法来进行空分设备项目投资的经济性分析及进口(合资)和国产空分设备方案的选择。     

Optimal design of hybrid power generation system and its integration in the distribution network

The inability of conventional energy sources to fully meet the rapidly increasing energy demands in today’s world has led to the growing importance of hybrid power generation systems that incorporate renewable energy sources. This work proposes an optimally designed multi-source standalone hybrid generation system comprising of photovoltaic panels, wind turbine generators, batteries and diesel generator. This design aims at minimizing emissions and cost, expressed in the form of the Net Present Value (NPV) of the system, while simultaneously maximizing its Energy Index of Reliability (EIR). The designed hybrid power generation system is further integrated into the distribution system as a Distributed Generation (DG); this is to optimally improve the performance of the distribution system by minimizing the total losses and the total voltage deviation of the distribution system. The combined cost and emissions incurred due to the energy purchased from the grid and the energy generated by DG are also reduced. For this purpose an improvised Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization (MOPSO) algorithm is developed taking care of contradicting objectives. The proposed optimization algorithms are implemented using MATLAB for a standard IEEE 69-bus distribution system, using an hour-wise annual data of Spain. The location and size of DGs and the type and number of each generating source of the hybrid system are considered as decision variables. The effectiveness of the proposed optimal design using the improvised MOPSO algorithm is established in comparison with Improved Hybrid Optimization by Genetic Algorithm (i-HOGA) results.     

热电联产机组储热罐最佳容量的确定方法

为解决“风热冲突”下储热罐的容量选择问题,以热电联产机组整个采暖期为研究对象,引入特征日概念,对配置储热罐后的热电机组建立了逐小时的运行模型。分别以机组深度调峰空间的增量、全年总收益和10年净现值为目标函数,寻找储热罐容量的最优值。结果表明,热负荷越高储热罐的最佳容量也越大,同时机组配置储热罐后所能获得的深度调峰空间也越大;不考虑初投资时,以全年总收益为目标的储热罐最优容量约为820 MW;在考虑初投资后,以10年净现值为目标的储热罐最优容量约为430 MW,容量几乎减半。     

改性沥青路面的寿命经济分析

参考美国的寿命经济分析方法（LCCA），进行了改性沥青路面相对于非改性沥青路面的寿命经济分析。首先对LCCA的两个方法一现值（NPV）法和年值（EUAC）法进行了简介。然后对改性沥青对于路用性能的改善效果进行了分析，试验结果证明改性沥青能够有效的提高路面的使用性能。最后根据美国的数据对改性与非改性路面的经济性进行了分析，结果表明从长远来看，在沥青路面中使用改性沥青是经济的，且经济性单层改性优于不改性，多层改性优于单层改性。     

Value‐centric framework and pareto optimality for design and acquisition of communication satellites

Investments in space systems are substantial, indivisible, and irreversible, characteristics of high‐risk investments. Traditional approaches to system design, acquisition, and risk mitigation are derived from a cost‐centric mindset, and as such they incorporate little information about the value of the spacecraft to its stakeholders. These traditional approaches are appropriate in stable environments. However, the current technical and economic conditions are distinctly uncertain and rapidly changing. Consequently, these traditional approaches have to be revisited and adapted to the current context. We propose that in uncertain environments, decision‐making with respect to design and acquisition choices should be value‐based. We develop a value‐centric framework, analytical tools, and an illustrative numerical example for communication satellites. Our two proposed metrics for decision‐making are the system's expected value and value uncertainty. Expected value is calculated as the expected NPV of the satellite. The cash inflow is calculated as a function of the satellite loading, its transponder pricing, and market demand. The cash outflows are the various costs for owning and operating the satellite. Value uncertainty emerges due to uncertainties in the various cash flow streams, in particular because of market conditions. We propagate market uncertainty through Monte Carlo simulation, and translate it into value uncertainty for the satellite. The end result is a portfolio of Pareto‐optimal satellite design alternatives. By using value and value uncertainty as decision metrics in the down‐selection process, decision‐makers draw on more information about the system in its environment, and in making value‐based design and acquisition choices, they ultimately make more informed and better choices. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

实物期权分析在IT投资决策中的应用

对NPV法和实物期权方法进行简单比较,可以看出NPV方法在评价具有不确定性、不可逆性和时机选择特点的项目时存在不足之处。建议使用实物期权方法评价这类项目。