Burned area forecasting using past burned area records and Southern Oscillation Index for tropical Africa (1981-1999)

An 18-year time series of monthly NOAA-AVHRR Pathfinder Land burned area was analyzed for the region of tropical Africa, from July 1981 to June 1999. The transition period between NOAA-11 and NOAA-14 platforms from July 1993 to June 1995 was not included due to missing and outlier data. Stability of the time series was addressed for the input variables in the burned area algorithm, reflectance and temperature channels.A Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving-Average (SARIMA) model was developed for forecasting potential burned area. The SARIMA model identified an autoregressive regular term with 1-month lag and an autoregressive 12-month seasonal term with one season (12 months) component. A cross-correlation between Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and burned area was statistically significant predictor variable in a time series with 20-month lag. Results show that the SARIMA model with this predictor improved both, fitting and forecasting, residual variance, by 4.1% and 5.6%, respectively, thereby, demonstrating potential relationship between SOI and burned area for the study region. Forecasting was estimated by considering only the first 16 years of the monthly burned area in the time series, from July 1981 to June 1997. The prediction for the following 24 months (from July 1997 to June 1999) was within the 95% confidence level indicating that the forecast was a valid characterization of the modeled process.     

Foundational Aspects of Student‐Controlled Learning: A Paradigm for Design,Development, and Assessment Appropriate for Web‐Based Instruction

This paper presents a strategy for the design and organization of materials for Web‐based instruction (WBI) founded upon cognitive modeling for the identification and organization of the major concepts in the domain of interest, based upon the Pathfinder paradigm. The original purpose of the Pathfinder paradigm was to model aspects of human semantic (associative) memory. A brief introduction to the Pathfinder paradigm is presented, and the rationale for its use in WBI is discussed. The development of this paradigm for WBI, in the context of eliciting and representing knowledge from domain experts, and its use in a pilot study is described. The domain used for the pilot study was the A* search algorithm, embedded within an introductory course in artificial intelligence. Assessment of the paradigm is also discussed, and preliminary methods are applied to the pilot study.     

基于 BIM 与 Pathfinder 的楼梯间堆积物对高层住宅建筑人群疏散影响研究

高层住宅建筑发生火灾时,楼梯间作为主要逃生通道,保证其畅通性尤为重要,但楼梯间堆积物却是人群疏散的主要阻碍。利用 BIM 与 Pathfinder 软件相结合,建立应急疏散仿真模型,设定 574 名不同年龄阶段的疏散人员参与模拟,在Steering 行为模式下进行仿真,分别研究堆积物摆放面积、摆放形状及摆放位置对高层住宅建筑人群疏散时间、疏散速度及拥堵情况产生的影响,并以此为高层住宅建筑楼梯间的规范管理提供理论依据。     

Relating indices of knowledge structure coherence and accuracy to skill-based performance: Is there utility in using a combination of indices?

The authors examined the relative criterion-related validity of knowledge structure coherence and two accuracy-based indices (closeness and correlation) as well as the utility of using a combination of knowledge structure indices in the prediction of skill acquisition and transfer. Findings from an aggregation of 5 independent samples (N = 958) whose participants underwent training on a complex computer simulation indicated that coherence and the accuracy-based indices yielded comparable zero-order predictive validities. Support for the incremental validity of using a combination of indices was mixed; the most, albeit small, gain came in pairing coherence and closeness when predicting transfer. After controlling for baseline skill, general mental ability, and declarative knowledge, only coherence explained a statistically significant amount of unique variance in transfer. Overall, the results suggested that the different indices largely overlap in their representation of knowledge organization, but that coherence better reflects adaptable aspects of knowledge organization important to skill transfer. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Changes in land surface temperatures and NDVI values over Europe between 1982 and 1999

We used land surface temperature (LST) algorithms and NDVI values to estimate changes in vegetation in the European continent between 1982 and 1999 from the Pathfinder AVHRR Land (PAL) dataset. These two parameters are monitored through HANTS (Harmonic ANalysis of Time Series) software, which allows the simultaneous observation of mean value, first harmonic amplitude and phase behaviors in the same image. These results for each complete year of data show the effect of volcanic aerosols and orbital drift on PAL data. Comparison of time series of HANTS cloud-free time series with the original time series for various land cover proves that this software is useful for LST analysis, although primarily designed for NDVI applications. Comparison of yearly averages of HANTS LST over the whole Europe with air temperature confirms the validity of the results. Maps of the evolution for both parameters between periods 1982/1986 and 1995/1999 have been elaborated: NDVI data show the well confirmed trend of increase over Europe (up to 0.1 in NDVI), Southern Europe seeing a decrease in NDVI (− 0.02). LST averages stay stable or slightly decrease (up to − 1.5 K) over the whole continent, except for southern areas for which the increase is up to 2.5 K. These results evidence that arid and semi-arid areas of Southern Europe have become more arid, the rest of Europe seeing an increase in its wood land proportion, while seasonal amplitude in Northern Europe has decreased.     

地下批发商场火灾危险性分析与对策措施

为研究地下批发商场的火灾危险性,选取某地下批发商场为研究对象,通过实地数据调查,设定3 种典型火灾场景,包括商铺火灾、楼梯间火灾、走道火灾。利用FDS 建立火灾模型,分析该地下批发商城的烟气流动情况,并根据火灾危险标准判定不同区域危险时间。以此为依据,利用Pathfinder 疏散软件进行人员疏散模拟。结果表明,发生火灾时,该地下批发商城人员无法安全疏散,结合商场现状与模拟情况,通过对安全隐患整改,确保火灾情况下人员安全疏散,以此提出火灾防控措施。     

辅助救护人员配置对介护老人安全疏散影响研究

运用Pathfinder 仿真软件,从安全疏散角度研究养老建筑中护理人员人力配置问题,为养老建筑人员疏散配置提供理论基础,为相关政策措施的制定提供依据。研究结果表明：人力供应阶段,随着护理人员数量增加,疏散所用的时间减少,但呈现边际效用递减的趋势;外部人力再供应阶段,消防救援人员人数增加,疏散所用的时间减少,同样呈现边际效用递减的趋势;护理人员与消防救援人员配置都存在最优配置点,最优配置点处总体疏散时间下降最明显,人数超过最优配置点后,辅助救护人员数量的增加对介护老人安全疏散效果提升不明显,甚至会由于辅助救护人员过多引起疏散中的拥堵造成疏散效率下降。     

人群疏散平移矩阵算法

建筑物的通行能力研究近年来受到广泛关注,安全高效地流通人群是专家学者研究的重点。首先,通过一组节点和边的定义将建筑物表示为网络,进而利用Dijkstra最短路算法生成最短路径集合,最后在该集合的基础上提出平移矩阵算法,利用0-1矩阵的更新模拟人群在建筑路径上的流动过程。通过设置多组教学楼疏散场景并与Pathfinder软件的对比来验证平移矩阵算法的有效性。对比结果显示,不同密度下两种方法的总疏散时间差都约为50 s,而运算速度平移矩阵算法比Pathfinder软件快10~110倍。该算法为人群疏散的快速模拟提供了新思路,为疏散策略的实时生成提供了可能性。     

Changes in the ways that group trainees structure their knowledge of group members with training.

Multidimensional scaling (MDS) and Pathfinder were used to examine changes in the knowledge structures of 9 group therapy trainees, and to examine convergence in the trainees' knowledge structures with one experienced group leader. Participants (experienced group therapist and group therapy trainees) judged the similarity of each pair of group members in an ongoing interpersonal process group early and late in a semester of group therapy training. As in previous research, MDS and Pathfinder analyses of these similarity judgments were used to infer the cognitive structure of the trainees and of the experienced group leader. These analyses suggested that (a) the dimensions used by the trainees to conceptualize group members increased in complexity with training, and (b) trainees' knowledge structures became more similar to the experienced leader's knowledge structure with training. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Land surface phenology, climatic variation, and institutional change: Analyzing agricultural land cover change in Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan is the second largest country to emerge from the collapse of the Soviet Union. Consequent to the abrupt institutional changes surrounding the disintegration of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, Kazakhstan has reportedly undergone extensive land cover/land use change. Were the institutional changes sufficiently great to affect land surface phenology at spatial resolutions and extents relevant to mesoscale meteorological models? To explore this question, we used the NDVI time series (1985-1988 and 1995-1999) from the Pathfinder Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Land (PAL) dataset, which consists of 10 days maximum NDVI composites at a spatial resolution of 8 km. Daily minimum and maximum temperatures were extracted from the NCEP Reanalysis Project and 10 days composites of accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD) were produced. We selected for intensive study seven agricultural areas ranging from regions with rain-fed spring wheat cultivation in the north to regions of irrigated cotton and rice in the south. We applied three distinct but complementary statistical analyses: (1) nonparametric testing of sample distributions; (2) simple time series analysis to evaluate trends and seasonality; and (3) simple regression models describing NDVI as a quadratic function of AGDD.The irrigated areas displayed different temporal developments of NDVI between 1985-1988 and 1995-1999. As the temperature regime between the two periods was not significantly different, we conclude that observed differences in the temporal development of NDVI resulted from changes in agricultural practices.In the north, the temperature regime was also comparable for both periods. Based on extant socioeconomic studies and our model analyses, we conclude that the changes in the observed land surface phenology in the northern regions are caused by large increases in fallow land dominated by weedy species and by grasslands under reduced grazing pressure. Using multiple lines of evidence allowed us to build a case of whether differences in land surface phenology were mostly the result of anthropogenic influences or interannual climatic fluctuations.