Robust optimal operation of continuous catalytic reforming process under feedstock uncertainty

The continuous catalytic regenerative (CCR) reforming process is one of the most significant sources of hydrogen production in the petroleum refining process. However, the fluctuations in feedstock composition and flow rate could significantly affect both product distribution and energy consumption. In this study, a robust deviation criterion based multi-objective optimization approach is proposed to perform the optimal operation of CCR reformer under feedstock uncertainty, with simultaneous maximization of product yields and minimization of energy consumption. Minimax approach is adopted to handle these uncertain objectives, and the Latin hypercube sampling method is then used to calculate these robust deviation criteria. Multi-objective surrogate-based optimization methods are next introduced to effectively solve the robust operational problem with high computational cost. The level diagram method is finally utilized to assist in multi-criteria decision-making. Two robust operational optimization problems with different objectives are solved to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method for robust optimal operation of the CCR reforming process under feedstock uncertainty.     

Predicting Prostephanus truncatus (Horn) (Coleoptera: Bostrichidae) populations and associated grain damage in smallholder farmers’ maize stores: A machine learning approach

Prostephanus truncatus is a notorious pest of stored-maize grain and its spread throughout sub-Saharan Africa has led to increased levels of grain storage losses. The current study developed models to predict the level of P. truncatus infestation and associated damage of maize grain in smallholder farmer stores. Data were gathered from grain storage trials conducted in Hwedza and Mbire districts of Zimbabwe and correlated with weather data for each site. Insect counts of P. truncatus and other common stored grain insect pests had a strong correlation with time of year with highest recorded numbers from January to May. Correlation analysis showed insect-generated grain dust from boring and feeding activity to be the best indicator of P. truncatus presence in stores (r = 0.70), while a moderate correlation (r = 0.48) was found between P. truncatus numbers and storage insect parasitic wasps, and grain damage levels significantly correlated with the presence of Tribolium castaneum (r = 0.60). Models were developed for predicting P. truncatus infestation and grain damage using parameter selection algorithms and decision-tree machine learning algorithms with 10-fold cross-validation. The P. truncatus population size prediction model performance was weak (r = 0.43) due to the complicated sampling and detection of the pest and eight-week long period between sampling events. The grain damage prediction model had a stronger correlation coefficient (r = 0.93) and is a good estimator for in situ stored grain insect damage. The models were developed for use under southern African climatic conditions and can be improved with more input data to create more precise models for building decision-support tools for smallholder maize-based production systems.     

Revisiting rock classification to estimate rock mass properties

This paper presents the results of ongoing research carried out by the author exploring methods to provide a more robust estimate of rock mass properties specifically for use in tunnel design. Data from various large-scale rock mass failures are introduced, including coal pillars. The damage-initiation,spalling-limit approach is compared to the coal pillar database. New comparisons of estimating the geological strength index(GSI) and relationships to estimate the Hoeke Brown failure criterion parameters, mb, s and a, are presented.     

Classification of the cardiotocogram data for anticipation of fetal risks using machine learning techniques

The aim of the research is evaluating the classification performances of eight different machine-learning methods on the antepartum cardiotocography (CTG) data. The classification is necessary to predict newborn health, especially for the critical cases. Cardiotocography is used for assisting the obstetricians’ to obtain detailed information during the pregnancy as a technique of measuring fetal well-being, essentially in pregnant women having potential complications. The obstetricians describe CTG shortly as a continuous electronic record of the baby's heart rate took from the mother's abdomen. The acquired information is necessary to visualize unhealthiness of the embryo and gives an opportunity for early intervention prior to happening a permanent impairment to the embryo. The aim of the machine learning methods is by using attributes of data obtained from the uterine contraction (UC) and fetal heart rate (FHR) signals to classify as pathological or normal. The dataset contains 1831 instances with 21 attributes, examined by applying the methods. In the paper, the highest accuracy displayed as 99.2%.     

A GIS plug-in for Bayesian belief networks: Towards a transparent software framework to assess and visualise uncertainties in ecosystem service mapping

The complexity and spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem processes driving ecosystem service delivery require spatially explicit models that take into account the different parameters affecting those processes. Current attempts to model ecosystem service delivery on a broad, regional scale often depend on indicator-based approaches that are generally not able to fully capture the complexity of ecosystem processes. Moreover, they do not allow quantification of uncertainty on their predictions. In this paper, we discuss a QGIS plug-in which promotes the use of Bayesian belief networks for regional modelling and mapping of ecosystem service delivery and associated uncertainties. Different types of specific Bayesian belief network output maps, delivered by the plug-in, are discussed and their decision support capacities are evaluated. This plug-in, used in combination with firmly developed Bayesian belief networks, has the potential to add value to current spatial ecosystem service accounting methods. The plug-in can also be used in other research domains dealing with spatial data and uncertainty.     

A stiffness parameter and truncation error criterion for adaptive path following in structural mechanics

We explore a truncation error criterion to steer adaptive step length refinement and coarsening in incremental-iterative path following procedures, applied to problems in large-deformation structural mechanics. Elaborating on ideas proposed by Bergan and collaborators in the 1970s, we first describe an easily computable scalar stiffness parameter whose sign and rate of change provide reliable information on the local behavior and complexity of the equilibrium path. We then derive a simple scaling law that adaptively adjusts the length of the next step based on the rate of change of the stiffness parameter at previous points on the path. We show that this scaling is equivalent to keeping a local truncation error constant in each step. We demonstrate with numerical examples that our adaptive method follows a path with a significantly reduced number of points compared to an analysis with uniform step length of the same fidelity level. A comparison with Abaqus illustrates that the truncation error criterion effectively concentrates points around the smallest-scale features of the path, which is generally not possible with automatic incrementation solely based on local convergence properties.     

积分中值屈服准则解析厚板轧制椭圆速度场

为解决非线性Mises比塑性功率积分困难以及由此导致的轧制功率解析式难以获得的问题,本文通过建立并利用线性比塑性功率表达式对提出的椭圆速度场进行能量分析,得到了轧制力能参数的解析解.文中通过对变角度屈服函数求积分中值,构建了一个新的屈服准则,它是主应力分量的线性组合,在π平面上的轨迹是逼近Mises圆的等边非等角的十二边形,其基于Lode参数表达式的理论结果也与实验数据吻合较好.同时,根据厚板轧制时金属流动速度从入口到出口逐渐增大的特点,提出了水平速度分量满足椭圆方程的速度场,该速度场满足运动许可条件.通过相应的轧制能量分析,获得了基于线性屈服准则的内部变形功率以及基于应变矢量内积法上的摩擦功率与剪切功率.在此之上,通过泛函的极值变分导出了轧制力矩、轧制力以及应力状态系数的解析解,并与现场实测数据进行了对比,结果表明利用本文提出的屈服准则与速度场所建立的轧制力矩与轧制力模型与实测值吻合较好,其中轧制力误差小于5.3%,轧制力矩误差在6%左右.     

Prediction of risk factors of cyberbullying-related words in Korea: Application of data mining using social big data

The study examined a decision tree analysis using social big data to conduct the prediction model on types of risk factors related to cyberbullying in Korea. The study conducted an analysis of 103,212 buzzes that had noted causes of cyberbullying and data were collected from 227 online channels, such as news websites, blogs, online groups, social network services, and online bulletin boards. Using opinion-mining method and decision tree analysis, the types of cyberbullying were sorted using SPSS 25.0. The results indicated that the total rate of types of cyberbullying in Korea was 44%, which consisted of 32.3% victims, 6.4% perpetrators, and 5.3% bystanders. According to the results, the impulse factor was also the greatest influence on the prediction of the risk factors and the propensity for dominance factor was the second greatest factor predicting the types of risk factors. In particular, the impulse factor had the most significant effect on bystanders, and the propensity for dominance factor was also significant in influencing online perpetrators. It is necessary to develop a program to diminish the impulses that were initiated by bystanders as well as victims and perpetrators because many of those bystanders have tended to aggravate impulsive cyberbullying behaviors.     

Improving the multi-objective evolutionary optimization algorithm for hydropower reservoir operations in the California Oroville–Thermalito complex

This study demonstrates the application of an improved Evolutionary optimization Algorithm (EA), titled Multi-Objective Complex Evolution Global Optimization Method with Principal Component Analysis and Crowding Distance Operator (MOSPD), for the hydropower reservoir operation of the Oroville–Thermalito Complex (OTC) – a crucial head-water resource for the California State Water Project (SWP). In the OTC's water-hydropower joint management study, the nonlinearity of hydropower generation and the reservoir's water elevation–storage relationship are explicitly formulated by polynomial function in order to closely match realistic situations and reduce linearization approximation errors. Comparison among different curve-fitting methods is conducted to understand the impact of the simplification of reservoir topography. In the optimization algorithm development, techniques of crowding distance and principal component analysis are implemented to improve the diversity and convergence of the optimal solutions towards and along the Pareto optimal set in the objective space. A comparative evaluation among the new algorithm MOSPD, the original Multi-Objective Complex Evolution Global Optimization Method (MOCOM), the Multi-Objective Differential Evolution method (MODE), the Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm (MOGA), the Multi-Objective Simulated Annealing approach (MOSA), and the Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization scheme (MOPSO) is conducted using the benchmark functions. The results show that best the MOSPD algorithm demonstrated the best and most consistent performance when compared with other algorithms on the test problems. The newly developed algorithm (MOSPD) is further applied to the OTC reservoir releasing problem during the snow melting season in 1998 (wet year), 2000 (normal year) and 2001 (dry year), in which the more spreading and converged non-dominated solutions of MOSPD provide decision makers with better operational alternatives for effectively and efficiently managing the OTC reservoirs in response to the different climates, especially drought, which has become more and more severe and frequent in California.