2019年黑龙江省猪肉市场运行情况分析

2018年非洲猪瘟疫情出现以来,全国及黑龙江省生猪生产、猪肉市场受到了较大的影响,生猪、能繁母猪存栏减少,生猪出场价格也经历了明显波动。2019年春节以后,随着省外调出量增加和猪源减少,黑龙江省生猪出场价格进入上升通道,超过了全国平均水平,白条猪肉批发价格和猪肉市场零售价格随之上行。通过对2019年黑龙江省生猪生产环节、屠宰加工环节、猪肉市场零售环节进行调研,对生猪出场价格、白条猪肉批发价格、猪肉零售价格、生猪和能繁母猪产能等指标进行分析,阐述了以生猪和猪肉市场为重点的肉类产销形势,为促进肉类产业高质量发展、提高市场保供能力提供参考。     

Domestic demand-side response with heat pumps: controls and tariffs

ABSTRACT

Electric heat pumps feature prominently in projected energy transitions in the UK and elsewhere. Owing to their high electricity consumption, heat pumps are viewed as important targets for demand-side response (DSR). Findings are presented from a field trial of a new control system that aims to optimize heat pump performance, including under time-varying tariff conditions. The trial involved monitoring 76 properties with heat pumps, but without dedicated heat storage; 31 of these received the control system. Interviews were conducted with a subsample of 12 participants. The controller successfully evened out electricity demand over the day (reducing the evening peak), but this was associated with increased late night and daytime temperatures. Interview participants reported some disturbance owing to overnight heating and noise, as well as usability issues with the controller interface and hardware. These issues present risks to the future acceptability of such systems. While the system delivered short-term demand reductions successfully, longer-term demand shifting risked causing unacceptable disturbance to occupants. Future control systems could overcome some of the issues identified in this pioneering trial through more effective zoning, using temperature caps or installing dedicated heat storage, but these may either limit the available flexibility or be challenging to achieve.     

Testing the oil price efficiency using various measures of long-range dependence

In this paper, we empirically examine the application of a host of techniques employed to measure price efficiency through long-range dependence using prices of monthly oil contracts. Using a series of methods, we analyse the volatility (daily absolute returns) of WTI and Brent oil prices for nine different contracts with maturity, ranging from 1 to 9 months, during the sample period of 1990-2017. We use bootstrapping to compute the confidence interval of the parameter of long-range dependence. Our results indicate that on an average, there is no long-range dependence in the volatility of oil price contracts at least at the 10-percent level of significance. Moreover, our results of rolling estimates suggest that the normality assumption does not affect the results considerably, and the results are robust to different rolling window sizes. While the results of the efficiency index suggest that the efficiency of oil returns vary with time, the futures contracts for Brent oil are found to be less efficient compared to WTI oil. The long-term futures contracts are more efficient than short-term contracts.     

俄罗斯天然气在东北地区的利用发展分析

中俄东线天然气即将引入中国,将对东北地区的天然气利用项目产生有力的推动作用,同时也将面临各种问题。为建立长期可持续发展资源供应体系,结合能源供需实际,讨论了俄气到来后,东北地区天然气未来的发展方向,并分析了存在的主要问题:①天然气自产不足,域外依存度高;②地域特点决定替代能源可有多种选择;③调峰困难且富余天然气难以处理;④天然气替代经济性差,价高难以承受。并针对矛盾点进行了总结,指出来源多元化和资源多样化才能可持续发展。明确东北地区宜以天然气作为过渡能源,并提出了适宜地区经济发展的天然气利用建议。     

我国两部制电价制度对天然气发电企业盈利能力的影响

上海、浙江和江苏等地陆续出台了两部制电价制度,以期解决天然气发电(以下简称气电)企业成本高、经营困难等问题。为了研究该电价制度对气电企业盈利能力的影响,在对比分析上述三地电价政策和实施效果的基础上,基于不同类型机组的三大经营指标(项目财务内部收益率、经济净现值、动态投资回收期),采用项目经济性分析模型探究了不同类型燃气电厂的经济性。研究结果表明:①现行两部制电价与单一制电价相比,电价水平小幅度下降,给企业经营带来了一定的冲击,但从长远看,则有利于形成可持续的发展机制;②两部制电价是各地政府经过充分调研和测算后根据该区具体情况制定的,在该政策下多数企业处于盈亏平衡点附近,综合条件优、管理水平高的企业能取得一定的盈利,反之则亏损;③当电量电价一定且大于盈亏平衡点时,企业效益随年利用小时数的增加而提升,反之则随年利用小时数的增加而降低。结论认为:①两部制电价能起到促进企业管理和技术水平提升,引导和鼓励电力投资的作用,符合我国电力体制改革的方向;②政策制定时应针对不同时期建成的项目加以区别对待,实现上网电价、天然气价格和供热蒸气价格的"三个联动";③应建立大数据平台,实行气网、电网联合调度;④发电企业应创新管理,降低电厂建设及维护成本,提升机组效率,降低气耗。     

A closed loop supply chain under retail price and product quality dependent demand

The importance of remanufacturing of used products, maintaining the same quality as new ones has been widely recognized in practice. In this paper, we address a closed loop supply chain where the manufacturer manufactures a product with a decent quality acceptable to customers, and sells it through a retailer in the market. A third party collects the used products from consumers and sends to the manufacturer. The manufacturer re-manufactures the used product and the quality of remanufactured product is the same as that of the manufactured one. For such a closed loop supply chain, we construct five different scenarios – centralized, decentralized or Nash game and three different Stackelberg games, led by the manufacturer, retailer and third party respectively. We compare the optimal results to find out the best decentralized scenario out of the four mentioned. A numerical example is taken to study the impacts of product quality on demand as well as optimal decisions and investigate sensitivity of some key model-parameters.     

工程实施阶段的风险规避——解读2013版《建设工程工程量清单计价规范》之合同价款调整

分析工程实施阶段影响合同价款调整的风险因素及风险分担的有关规定和风险出现时合同价款调整的计算方法。条理清晰,示例通俗易懂,可操作性强。     

DG planning with amalgamation of economic and reliability considerations

Distributed generation has been playing a vital role in dealing with issues related to distribution systems. This paper presents an approach which provides the distribution system operator with a set of solutions for DG placement to optimize reliability and total cost of power consumed by the distribution system. Optimal location of a Distributed Generator is evaluated based on the performance indices derived for reliability index and total cost of power consumed by the system. The proposed approach is applied to a 15-bus radial distribution system and a 18-bus radial distribution system and the results are analyzed.     

Quality improvement and backorder price discount under controllable lead time in an inventory model

The proposed study investigates a continuous review inventory model with order quantity, reorder point, backorder price discount, process quality, and lead time as decision variables. An investment function is used to improve the process quality. Two models are developed based on the probability distribution of lead time demand. The lead time demand follows a normal distribution in the first model and in the second model it does not follow any specific distribution but mean and standard deviation are known. We prove two lemmas to obtain optimal solutions for the normal distribution model and distribution free model. Finally, some numerical examples are given to illustrate the model.     

公租房工程项目合同类型的选择

公租房项目工期紧任务重,工程内容构成复杂,需根据工程实际情况综合考虑各种因素,灵活运用多种合同类型,确保工程顺利实施。合理选择承发包双方都能接受的工程项目合同类型是公租房项目合同管理的关键一环,是保障公租房项目建设快速有序推进,实现较为理想的投资效益的重要手段。