Construction and analysis of photovoltaic directly coupled conditions in PEM electrolyzer

The Markov model and the PEM electrolyzer system model for directly coupled photovoltaic are combined to construct an efficient and reliable working condition that fits the fluctuation characteristics of solar energy. The working condition is designed through genetic algorithm so that the average coupling efficiency of the system can reach 98.8%. Then, the durability and recovery test are conducted on the basis of the constructed conditions. It is found that the attenuation rate at the current density of 1A/cm² under the photovoltaic fluctuating condition reached 7.8mV/h, which is twice that under the constant current condition. The charge transfer impedance (R_ct) is the main factor leading to the degradation. It is proved by the recovery experiment that the increase of R_ct is related to the pollution of metal ions. After pickling to remove some metal ions, R_ct can be significantly reduced by 46.8% and 65.2%, respectively. After the durability test, the voltammetric charges under the photovoltaic fluctuating condition and the constant current condition are reduced by 48.3% and 19.1% It indicates that the photovoltaic fluctuation condition will accelerate the attenuation of the effective reaction area of MEA, which is irreversible even after pickling. It can be observed from the SEM images that the catalyst layer of MEA has more obvious peeling under the photovoltaic fluctuation condition, which is not conducive to material transmission and destroys the transmission channel of ions and electrons. This result can provide a reliable reference for the coupling design of PEM electrolyzer and renewable energy in the future.     

马尔可夫跳变线性系统最优控制的研究现状与进展

马尔可夫跳变线性系统（MJLS）是一种具有多个模态的随机系统，系统在各个模态之间的跳变转移由一组马尔可夫链来决定。MJLS模型因其在表示过程中可以产生突变而更能精确的描述实际工程应用中的系统。近年来，MJLS的最优控制问题成为了研究的热点，动态规划、极大值原理以及线性矩阵不等式等成为了解决此类问题的主流方法。本文对MJLS最优控制领域的研究现状进行了综述。分别对一般情况下、带有噪声的情况下、带有时滞的情况下以及某些特定情况下的MLJS最优控制问题的国内外研究现状进行论述。最后进行了总结并提出MJLS最优控制领域未来值得关注的研究方向。     

具有自动装卸搬运机器人的制造单元建模与分析

针对具有自动装卸搬运机器人的制造单元，着重考虑其双重资源约束的特点，提出了该系统的有限缓冲开排队网的建模方法。根据工件的加工、装卸与搬运等工艺流程，定义该系统的排队网模型的各种状态，基于连续时间马尔可夫链，采用精确解法对该模型进行分析求解，获得系统一系列的稳态性能指标。为了验证排队网建模方法的有效性，建立其对应的仿真模型，分别采用排队网模型的数值计算与仿真模型的仿真统计2种方法求出系统的性能指标进行对比，并基于排队网模型对该制造单元的系统性能进行分析，为该类制造单元的资源配置优化和设施布局优化等问题提供重要的理论支撑。     

大规模生物网络马尔可夫聚类的并行化算法

马尔可夫聚类算法（MCL）是在大规模生物网络中寻找模块的一个有效方法，能够挖掘网络结构和功能影响力较大的模块。算法涉及到大规模矩阵计算，因此复杂度可达立方阶次。针对复杂度高的问题，提出了基于消息传递接口（MPI）的并行化马尔可夫聚类算法以提高算法的计算性能。首先，生物网络转化成邻接矩阵；然后，根据算法的特性，按照矩阵的规模判断并重新生成新矩阵以处理非平方倍数矩阵的计算；其次，并行计算通过按块分配的方式能够有效地实现任意规模矩阵的运算；最后，循环并行计算直至收敛，得到网络聚类结果。通过模拟网络和真实生物网络数据集的实验结果表明，与全块集体式通信（FCC）并行方法相比，平均并行效率提升了10个百分点以上，因此可以将该优化算法应用在不同类型的大规模生物网络中。     

基于高斯混合隐马尔科夫模型与人工神经网络的紧急换道行为预测方法

为了有效降低因驾驶员紧急换道行为而诱发的交通事故，提高道路交通事故链阻断效率，提出一种基于高斯混合隐马尔科夫模型（GMM-HMM）和人工神经网络（ANN）的紧急换道行为预测方法。首先利用GMM-HMM对车辆行驶状态以及驾驶行为连续观察序列进行换道意图辨识，采用ANN预测下一时段的驾驶行为，再预测换道过程中的横向加速度变化率，从而判断紧急换道的危险程度。驾驶员在环仿真实验及实车实验结果表明，该方法预测避险成功率达92.83%，实验避险成功率达90.32%。该方法能有效地对紧急换道行为进行提前警告与干预。     

An iterative approach for the discrete‐time dynamic control of Markov jump linear systems with partial information

The , and mixed dynamic output feedback control of Markov jump linear systems in a partial observation context is studied through an iterative approach. By partial information, we mean that neither the state variable x(k) nor the Markov chain θ(k) are available to the controller. Instead, we assume that the controller relies only on an output y(k) and a measured variable coming from a detector that provides the only information of the Markov chain θ(k). To solve the problem, we resort to an iterative method that starts with a state‐feedback controller and solves at each iteration a linear matrix inequality optimization problem. It is shown that this iterative algorithm yields to a nonincreasing sequence of upper bound costs so that it converges to a minimum value. The effectiveness of the iterative procedure is illustrated by means of two examples in which the conservatism between the upper bounds and actual costs is significantly reduced.     

基于广义隐马尔可夫模型的PM2.5浓度预测

近年来，以PM_2.5为主要污染物的重霾污染事件频频发生，给我国国民经济和居民健康造成了严重损失。在空气质量尚未得到根本性改善的情况下，对重霾污染的准确预警不仅能使公众合理回避污染危害，还能为政府实施应急管理提供时间裕量。针对影响PM_2.5浓度的前体物及气象因素的非高斯分布特点以及传统隐马尔可夫模型（hidden Markov model，HMM）必须已知隐含状态个数的缺点，采用广义隐马尔可夫模型（generalized hidden Markov model，GHMM）对北京市除去定陵外的11个国控站点2013年1月～2017年1月的PM_2.5浓度进行了预测。结果表明：GHMM对严重污染及以上PM_2.5样本浓度预测准确率显著高于传统连续HMM，但针对中度污染及以下PM_2.5样本浓度的预测准确率接近传统HMM。     

Stochastic stabilization and destabilization of nonlinear and time‐varying hybrid systems by noise

The aim of this article is to design a suitable strength function g(t,x,r(t)) such that the Wiener noise g(t,x(t),r(t))dw(t) either stabilizes or destabilizes a given nonlinear and time‐varying hybrid system . To this end, the basic properties, including the existence and uniqueness of the local and global solutions and the nonzero property of solutions of the nonlinear and time‐varying hybrid stochastic systems, are first investigated as the theoretical basis of the article. Second, two theorems and the corresponding corollaries on the stability and instability of the hybrid stochastic systems are established. Third, the design method for the noise strength g(t,x,r(t)) is then proposed based on the established theorems. We also point out that the Markov jump r(t) may have a stabilizing (respectively, destabilizing) effect when we design the noise strength g(t,x,r(t)) so that the introduced noise g(t,x(t),r(t))dw(t) stabilizes (respectively, destabilizes) the corresponding hybrid system. Finally, we illustrate our method using two examples. Compared with the existing literature, our method is suitable for a wider class of nonlinear and time‐varying systems with weaker conditions than quasi‐linear systems.     

An EWMA signed ranks control chart with reliable run length performances

During the design phase of a control chart, the determination of its exact run length properties plays a vital role for its optimal operation. Markov chain or integral equation methods have been extensively applied in the design phase of conventional control charts. However, for distribution-free schemes, due to the discrete nature of the statistics being used (such as the sign or the Wilcoxon signed rank statistics, for instance), it is impossible to accurately compute their run length properties. In this work, a modified distribution-free phase II exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA)-type chart based on the Wilcoxon signed rank statistic is considered and its exact run length properties are discussed. A continuous transformation of the Wilcoxon signed rank statistic, combined with the classical Markov chain method, is used for the determination of the average run length in the in- and out-of control cases. Moreover, its exact performance is derived without any knowledge of the distribution of sample observations. Finally, an illustrative example is provided showing the practical implementation of our proposed chart.