An economic investigation of the wind-hydrogen projects: A case study

Hydrogen as an energy carrier can play a significant role in reducing environmental emissions if it is produced from renewable energy resources. This research aims to assess hydrogen production from wind energy considering environmental, economic, and technical aspect for the East Azerbaijan province of Iran. The economic assessment is performed by calculation of payback period, levelized cost of hydrogen, and levelized cost of electricity. Since uncertainty in the power output of wind turbines may affect the payback period, all calculations are performed for four different turbine degradation rates. While it is common in the literature to choose the wind turbine based on a single criterion, this study implements Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) techniques for this purpose. The results of Step-wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis illustrates that economic issue is the most important criterion for this research. The results of Weighted Aggregated Sum Product Assessment shows that Vestas V52 is the most suitable wind turbine for Ahar and Sarab cities, while Eovent EVA120 H-Darrieus is a better choice for other stations. The most suitable location for wind power generation is found to be Ahar, where it is estimated to annually generate 2914.8 kWh of electricity at the price of 0.045 $/kWh, and 47.2 tons of hydrogen at the price of 1.38 $/kg, which result in 583 tons of CO₂ emission reduction.     

Digital twin-based analysis of volumetric error mapping procedures

The evaluation of the volumetric accuracy of a machine tool is an open challenge in the industry, and a wide variety of technical solutions are available in the market and at research level. All solutions have advantages and disadvantages concerning which errors can be measured, the achievable uncertainty, the ease of implementation, possibility of machine integration and automation, the equipment cost and the machine occupation time, and it is not always straightforward which option to choose for each application. The need to ensure accuracy during the whole lifetime of the machine and the availability of monitoring systems developed following the Industry 4.0 trend are pushing the development of measurement systems that can be integrated in the machine to perform semi-automatic verification procedures that can be performed frequently by the machine user to monitor the condition of the machine. Calibrated artefact based calibration and verification solutions have an advantage in this field over laser based solutions in terms of cost and feasibility of machine integration, but they need to be optimized for each machine and customer requirements to achieve the required calibration uncertainty and minimize machine occupation time.This paper introduces a digital twin-based methodology to simulate all relevant effects in an artefact-based machine tool calibration procedure, from the machine itself with its expected error ranges, to the artefact geometry and uncertainty, artefact positions in the workspace, probe uncertainty, compensation model, etc. By parameterizing all relevant variables in the design of the calibration procedure, this simulation methodology can be used to analyse the effect of each design variable on the error mapping uncertainty, which is of great help in adapting the procedure to each specific machine and user requirements. The simulation methodology and the analysis possibilities are illustrated by applying it on a 3-axis milling machine tool.     

Bayesian data analysis to quantify the uncertainty of intact rock strength

One of the main difficulties in the geotechnical design process lies in dealing with uncertainty. Uncertainty is associated with natural variation of properties, and the imprecision and unpredictability caused by insufficient information on parameters or models. Probabilistic methods are normally used to quantify uncertainty. However, the frequentist approach commonly used for this purpose has some drawbacks.First, it lacks a formal framework for incorporating knowledge not represented by data. Second, it has limitations in providing a proper measure of the confidence of parameters inferred from data. The Bayesian approach offers a better framework for treating uncertainty in geotechnical design. The advantages of the Bayesian approach for uncertainty quantification are highlighted in this paper with the Bayesian regression analysis of laboratory test data to infer the intact rock strength parameters σ_(ci) and m_i used in the Hoek-Brown strength criterion. Two case examples are used to illustrate different aspects of the Bayesian methodology and to contrast the approach with a frequentist approach represented by the nonlinear least squares(NLLS) method. The paper discusses the use of a Student's t-distribution versus a normal distribution to handle outliers, the consideration of absolute versus relative residuals, and the comparison of quality of fitting results based on standard errors and Bayes factors. Uncertainty quantification with confidence and prediction intervals of the frequentist approach is compared with that based on scatter plots and bands of fitted envelopes of the Bayesian approach. Finally, the Bayesian method is extended to consider two improvements of the fitting analysis. The first is the case in which the Hoek-Brown parameter, a, is treated as a variable to improve the fitting in the triaxial region. The second is the incorporation of the uncertainty in the estimation of the direct tensile strength from Brazilian test results within the overall evaluation of the intact rock strength.     

Improving scenario decomposition algorithms for robust nonlinear model predictive control

This paper deals with the efficient computation of solutions of robust nonlinear model predictive control problems that are formulated using multi-stage stochastic programming via the generation of a scenario tree. Such a formulation makes it possible to consider explicitly the concept of recourse, which is inherent to any receding horizon approach, but it results in large-scale optimization problems. One possibility to solve these problems in an efficient manner is to decompose the large-scale optimization problem into several subproblems that are iteratively modified and repeatedly solved until a solution to the original problem is achieved. In this paper we review the most common methods used for such decomposition and apply them to solve robust nonlinear model predictive control problems in a distributed fashion. We also propose a novel method to reduce the number of iterations of the coordination algorithm needed for the decomposition methods to converge. The performance of the different approaches is evaluated in extensive simulation studies of two nonlinear case studies.     

Two stage stochastic bilevel programming model of a pre-established timberlands supply chain with biorefinery investment interests

This work studies the supply allocation problem, using a Stackelberg game, for an established timberlands supply chain with an additional decision of new biorefinery investments. In a timberlands system, harvester and manufacturer decision makers have separate objectives to maximize their respective profits. This interaction is represented with a turn based Stackelberg game. The harvesters decide first on the quantity harvested, and the manufacturers decide on how much to utilize. This game is modeled with a bilevel mathematical program. The novel feature of this paper's bilevel formulation is the inclusion of parametric uncertainty in a two stage model. The first stage problem involves logistical decisions around biorefinery investments, such as location and capacity, while the second stage problem involves a bilevel timberlands model with parameter uncertainty. Studying this problem formulation revealed interesting insights for solving multiperiod problems with bilevel stages as well as the decision maker's behavior for the timberlands model.     

Generation expansion planning in electricity markets: A novel framework based on dynamic stochastic MPEC

This paper presents a novel framework for generation expansion planning (GEP) of restructured power systems under uncertainty in a multi-period horizon, which includes generation investment from a price maker perspective. The investment problem is modeled as a bi-level optimization problem. The first level problem includes decisions related to investment in order to maximize total profit in the planning horizon. The second level problem consists of maximizing social welfare where the power market is cleared. Rival uncertainties on offering and investment are modeled using sets of scenarios. The bi-level optimization problem is then converted to a dynamic stochastic MPEC and represented as a mixed integer linear program (MILP) after linearization. The proposed framework is examined on a typical six-bus power network, MAZANDARAN regional electric company (MREC) transmission network as an area of IRAN interconnected power system and IEEE RTS 24-bus network. Simulation results confirm that the proposed framework can be a useful tool for analyzing the behavior of investments in electricity markets.     

Optimal robust optimization approximation for chance constrained optimization problem

Chance constraints are useful for modeling solution reliability in optimization under uncertainty. In general, solving chance constrained optimization problems is challenging and the existing methods for solving a chance constrained optimization problem largely rely on solving an approximation problem. Among the various approximation methods, robust optimization can provide safe and tractable analytical approximation. In this paper, we address the question of what is the optimal (least conservative) robust optimization approximation for the chance constrained optimization problems. A novel algorithm is proposed to find the smallest possible uncertainty set size that leads to the optimal robust optimization approximation. The proposed method first identifies the maximum set size that leads to feasible robust optimization problems and then identifies the best set size that leads to the desired probability of constraint satisfaction. Effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated through a portfolio optimization problem, a production planning and a process scheduling problem.     

Stochastic free vibration analyses of composite shallow doubly curved shells – A Kriging model approach

This paper presents the Kriging model approach for stochastic free vibration analysis of composite shallow doubly curved shells. The finite element formulation is carried out considering rotary inertia and transverse shear deformation based on Mindlin’s theory. The stochastic natural frequencies are expressed in terms of Kriging surrogate models. The influence of random variation of different input parameters on the output natural frequencies is addressed. The sampling size and computational cost is reduced by employing the present method compared to direct Monte Carlo simulation. The convergence studies and error analysis are carried out to ensure the accuracy of present approach. The stochastic mode shapes and frequency response function are also depicted for a typical laminate configuration. Statistical analysis is presented to illustrate the results using Kriging model and its performance.     

GOS+MU:一种查询对象选择新方法

在分析单一MU(Most Uncertainty)采样缺陷的基础上,提出一种"全局最优搜寻"方法 GOS(Global Optimal Search),并结合MU共同完成查询选择。GOS+MU方法中,GOS着眼全局寻找目标,在应用环境能提供的训练样本数量有限、分类器受训不充分时,该方法选择的对象学习价值高,能快速推进分类器学习进程;MU则能够在GOS采样失效情形下,利用分类器当前训练成果,选择查询不确定性最强的样本补充训练集。通过对网络商品的用户评论进行分类仿真,并比较其他采样学习方法的效果,证明了GOS+MU方法在压缩学习成本、提高训练效率方面的有效性。