Reliability analysis for multidisciplinary systems with the mixture of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties |
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| Authors: | Y R Tao X Han S Y Duan C Jiang |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Mechanical Engineering, Hunan Institute of Engineering, , Xiangtan City 411101, China;2. State Key Laboratory of Advanced Design and Manufacturing for Vehicle Body, College of Mechanical and Vehicle Engineering, Hunan University, , Changsha City 410082, China |
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| Abstract: | Epistemic and aleatory uncertain variables always exist in multidisciplinary system simultaneously and can be modeled by probability and evidence theories, respectively. The propagation of uncertainty through coupled subsystem and the strong nonlinearity of the multidisciplinary system make the reliability analysis difficult and computational cost expensive. In this paper, a novel reliability analysis procedure is proposed for multidisciplinary system with epistemic and aleatory uncertain variables. First, the probability density function of the aleatory variables is assumed piecewise uniform distribution based on Bayes method, and approximate most probability point is solved by equivalent normalization method. Then, important sampling method is used to calculate failure probability and its variance and variation coefficient. The effectiveness of the procedure is demonstrated by two numerical examples. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
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| Keywords: | aleatory uncertainty multidisciplinary system reliability analysis probability theory |
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