改进BASS模型应用于短生命周期产品需求预测

总结了目前国内外文献对短生命周期产品需求预测的研究,分析了短生命周期产品需求相关的特点.介绍了BASS模型及其发展,通过可行性分析,将BASS模型应用于短生命周期产品预测.利用类似产品补充预测所需信息,并对模型进行了季节性修正.算例预测结果表明,改进后的BASS模型应用于短生命周期产品的需求预测在MAD、RMSE、MAPE等各项误差指标方面都优于其他方法.

Forecasting for Products with Short Life Cycle Based on Improved BASS Model

The forecasting studies for short life cycle products were summarized in this paper. The characteristics of short life cycle products were analyzed. BASS model and its development were introduced. After feasibility analysis, BASS model was applied to forecast the demand of short life cycle products. The forecasting information was complemented with the similar product data and the model was revised with seasonal factor. The numerical illustration proved that the revised BASS model could generate good forecast for products with short life cycle. The forecasting error of MAD, RMSE and MAPE were better than other methods.