空中交通管制自动化系统中飞行冲突概率解析算法的应用

由于空中交通管制指挥监测系统（ATCCMS）中航迹预估的不确定性,以它为基础的冲突探测就必须采用基于概率的算法,文中介绍了一个实用的求解冲突概率的解析算法,并用蒙特卡洛方法对它进行了验证,然后对飞行冲突概率的特性做了分析研究,描述了冲突概率应用于冲突报警和冲突求解的基本思想。

Application of an analytic method to estimate the conflict probability in ATC automation system

As key technologies of Air Traffic Control Command Monitoring System (ATCCMS), trajectory prediction, conflict detection and conflict resolution will improve the safety and efficiency of air transportation. Because the predicted trajectories are inexact, the algorithms used in conflict detection must be based on prob- ability. This paper discusses and implements an analytic method to estimate the conflict probability. The ef- ficiency is tested and some numerical examples are analyzed. This paper also presents a Monte Carlo valida- tion of the algorithms. At last the fundamental idea of the application to alert and resolution is described.