Discriminating natal origin of spawning adult sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) in Lake Champlain using statolith elemental signatures

Sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) is a nuisance species in the Great Lakes and Lake Champlain. Information about tributary contributions to the spawning adult phase is critical for appropriate allocation of efforts to control this species. We examined the accuracy of statolith elemental composition to identify the natal origin (i.e., individual rivers or clusters of rivers) of 33 known-origin adults from the Lake Champlain basin. To do so, we first established natal origin chemical signatures using the statoliths of 238 larvae from the same basin. Using laser-ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, the 238 larvae originating from 12 streams and one delta were discriminated with a classification accuracy of 57% (range: 25–80%) and 70% (range: 29–80%) when individual streams and groups of streams were considered respectively, highlighting the potential of statolith microchemistry to identify natal origins. However, the assignment of natal origin for adults was overwhelmingly incorrect. Using a maximum likelihood procedure, 88% of the adults were assigned to a cluster of three streams and one delta, while only 3% of these individuals were known to originate from this particular cluster. More research is required to understand the low classification accuracy of sea lamprey adults and validate the use of statolith microchemistry to identify sea lamprey natal origin.