组合优化灰色模型在中长期电力负荷预测中的应用

鉴于中长期负荷预测受很多不确定因素的影响，各种预测方法都有其局限性的问题，在分析基本灰色模型及其传统改进模型在负荷预测中局限性的基础上，提出了一种电力系统中长期负荷预测的实用新方法——组合优化灰色预测法.该预测法是一种对残差改进灰色模型(GM)和基于等维新息递补预测法的改进灰色模型进行优化的组合方法，能够实现在线预测模型参数，满足动态电力负荷能解决随机干扰影响的要求，最终的预测结果误差可基本控制在3%之内. 经过实例计算，组合优化灰色预测模型用于中长期电力负荷预测，与传统的系统理论方法相比较，该方法计算简捷，预测精度高，具有很好的实用性.

Application of combined optimum grey model to mid and long term load forecasting

It is well known that mid and long term electric load forecasting has many uncertain factors that influence the forecasting precision greatly,so every forecasting method has its limitation.Considering limitations of basic grey model and conventional improved models,a new practical method called combined optimum grey model for mid and long term load forecasting is introduced.The combined model is composed of partial error optimum grey model(GM) as well as equal-dimension and new-information grey model.The forecasting algorithm can estimate model parameters,meet the requirements of dynamic power load and overcome random disturbances.Example analysis shows that the forecasting error is below 3 percent.Compared with conventional theoretical methods,the proposed scheme has the characters of simple computation,high forecasting precision and good applicability.