煤层气峰值产量拟合及产量动态预测方法研究

煤层气属于非常规天然气,它的产能受多种因素影响,数值模拟过程复杂且资料难以获得。通过选取3种产量动态预测分析方法（Weibull模型法、广义翁氏模型法和H-C-Z模型法）,并进行对比分析,结果认为：H-C-Z模型法由于模型中的线性关系与煤层气开采机理不吻合,预测误差较大;广义翁氏模型法虽然拟合峰值产量有较高准确度,但其拟合峰值产量时间误差较大,难以满足精度要求;Weibull模型法对峰值产量及其出现时间的拟合精度均较高。因此Weibull模型法更适合预测煤层气产量。

Study on coalbed methane peak production fitting and production forecast by different dynamic analysis methods

Coalbed methane is unconventional natural gas. Its production is influenced by many factors, and the numerical simulation process is complex and the data is difficult to obtain. This paper selected three kinds of dynamic analysis methods to predict the production, including Weibull model, generalized Weng model and H-C-Z model. The result shows that the linear relationship of the H-C-Z model does not match the coalbed methane exploration mechanism, and the prediction error is large; the generalized Weng model can predict the peak production with high accuracy, but the time prediction error is large, so it is difficult to meet the accuracy requirements; the Weibull model can predict both the peak production and the appearance time accurately. Therefore, the Weibull model is more suitable for the prediction of coalbed methane production.