基于雷达坐标及膨胀系数的负荷预测新方法

以分形理论为依据，在雷达坐标中对电力系统负荷序列的分形维数、膨胀系数等参数进行了计算。雷达坐标的引入使负荷曲线呈现拟椭圆形状，这有利于从整体上把握负荷预测。虽然负荷曲线满足自相似性，但是还存在由随机负荷分量所引起的差别。对此，为了减小其影响，首先进行负荷数据的预处理。然后根据分形维数将负荷曲线分为若干段。同时，为了提高预测精度而引入了膨胀系数。最后利用这些参数对经过平滑处理的负荷曲线进行预测。实际的预测结果表明，此方法为一种有效的电力系统短期负荷预测方法。

A NOVEL LOAD FORECASTING METHOD BASED ON RADAR COORDINATION AND DILATATION COEFFICIENT

In accordance with the methods of fractal theory the parameters of power load series, such as fractal dimension and dilatation coefficient, are calculated in radar coordination. In radar coordinated system the load curves look like pseudo-elliptical and it is beneficial to grasping load forecasting as a whole. Though load curves possess self-similarity, but the differences caused by random load component still exist so that first of all the load data are preprocessed first to reduce its influence and the load curve is smoothed, then according to the fractal dimensions the load curve is divided into several segments. Simultaneously, to improve the load forecasting accuracy the dilatation coefficient for each segment of load curve is determined. Finally, the load forecasting is carried out for the smoothed load curve and by use of the above mentioned parameters. The forecasting results show that this method is effective.