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| 可持续水资源管理的风险分析研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 张翔,夏军,史晓新,汪新宇.可持续水资源管理的风险分析研究[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2000,33(1). |
| 作者姓名： | 张翔 夏军 史晓新 汪新宇 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 武汉水利电力大学水利水电学院,湖北,武汉,430072 2. 水利部水利水电规划设计总院,北京,100011 3. 长江水利委员会规划处,湖北,武汉,430010 |
| 基金项目： | 水利部发展计划司、长江水利委员会计划局 98科技重点项目资助，武汉水利电力大学青年科学基金课题资助 |
| 摘 要： | 可持续水资源管理强调未来变化、社会福利、水文循环、生态系统保护这样完整性的水管理 ,因此它面对比现行水资源管理更大的复杂性及更多的不确定因素的影响 .讨论了可持续水资源管理的风险分析和决策的特点 ,介绍了当前主要的风险计算方法和准则 ,给出了基于可靠性准则的水资源工程风险分析的实例 |
| 关 键 词： | 可持续水资源管理 风险分析 可靠性分析 |
Study on risk analysis of sustainable management of water resources |
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| ZHANG Xiang,XIA Jun,SHI Xiao-xin,WANG Xin-yu.Study on risk analysis of sustainable management of water resources[J].Engineering Journal of Wuhan University,2000,33(1). | |
| Authors: | ZHANG Xiang XIA Jun SHI Xiao-xin WANG Xin-yu |
| Abstract: | Compared with the traditional water resources management, the sustainable management of water resources, which emphasizes the integrated management considering changes in future,social welfare, hydrological cycle and ecological system, is much more complicated and influenced by more uncertainty sources. In this paper, the characteristics of risk analysis for the sustainable management are discussed. The main tools and criteria for risk analysis are introduced. Based on the reliability analysis, a case study about the risk analysis of water resources project is given. |
| Keywords: | the sustainable management of water resources risk analysis reliability analysis |
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